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John Graunt (24 April 1620 – 18 April 1674) has been regarded as the founder of
demography Demography () is the statistical study of populations, especially human beings. Demographic analysis examines and measures the dimensions and dynamics of populations; it can cover whole societies or groups defined by criteria such as ed ...
. Graunt was one of the first demographers, and perhaps the first
epidemiologist Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and determinants of health and disease conditions in a defined population. It is a cornerstone of public health, and shapes policy decisions and evid ...
, though by profession he was a
haberdasher In British English, a haberdasher is a business or person who sells small articles for sewing, dressmaking and knitting, such as buttons, ribbons, and zippers; in the United States, the term refers instead to a retailer who sells men's clothi ...
. He was bankrupted later in life by losses suffered during
Great Fire of London The Great Fire of London was a major conflagration that swept through central London from Sunday 2 September to Thursday 6 September 1666, gutting the medieval City of London inside the old Roman city wall, while also extending past th ...
and the discrimination he faced following his conversion to
Catholicism The Catholic Church, also known as the Roman Catholic Church, is the largest Christian church, with 1.3 billion baptized Catholics worldwide . It is among the world's oldest and largest international institutions, and has played a ...
.


Biography

Born in London, John Graunt was the eldest of the seven or eight children of Henry and Mary Graunt. Graunt's father was a draper who had moved to London from Hampshire. In February 1641, Graunt married Mary Scott, with whom he had one son (Henry) and three daughters. He became a freeman of the Drapers' Company at age 21. Graunt worked in his father's shop until his father died in 1662, and Graunt became influential in the City. He was able to secure the post of professor of music for his friend
William Petty Sir William Petty FRS (26 May 1623 – 16 December 1687) was an English economist, physician, scientist and philosopher. He first became prominent serving Oliver Cromwell and the Commonwealth in Ireland. He developed efficient methods to s ...
in 1650. He served in various ward offices in Cornhill ward, becoming a common councilman about 1669–71, warden of the Drapers' Company in 1671 and a major in the trained band. Graunt, along with Sir William Petty, developed early human statistical and
census A census is the procedure of systematically acquiring, recording and calculating information about the members of a given population. This term is used mostly in connection with national population and housing censuses; other common censuses inc ...
methods that provided a framework for modern demography. He is credited with producing and widely distributing the first
life table In actuarial science and demography, a life table (also called a mortality table or actuarial table) is a table which shows, for each age, what the probability is that a person of that age will die before their next birthday ("probability of de ...
, giving probabilities of survival to each age. This was remarkable considering the Bills of Mortality did not include age at death, thus Graunt used his knowledge of mathematics to create such a table. Graunt is also considered as one of the first experts in
epidemiology Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and determinants of health and disease conditions in a defined population. It is a cornerstone of public health, and shapes policy decisions and evi ...
, since his famous book was concerned mostly with
public health Public health is "the science and art of preventing disease, prolonging life and promoting health through the organized efforts and informed choices of society, organizations, public and private, communities and individuals". Analyzing the det ...
statistics. The erudition of Graunt's book, ''Natural and Political Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality'', led Graunt to the
Royal Society The Royal Society, formally The Royal Society of London for Improving Natural Knowledge, is a learned society and the United Kingdom's national academy of sciences. The society fulfils a number of roles: promoting science and its benefits, re ...
. On February 5th, 1661, Graunt presented fifty copies of his book to the Royal Society of London, to which he was subsequently elected a fellow in 1662 with the endorsement of King Charles II. King Charles II's recommendation was notable due to Graunt's status as a tradesman, as the King suggested to the Royal Society that it should accept "any more such Tradesman." Graunt was chosen as a member of the council of the Royal Society in November 1664 and represented the Society at various meetings. Graunt's house was destroyed in the
Great Fire of London The Great Fire of London was a major conflagration that swept through central London from Sunday 2 September to Thursday 6 September 1666, gutting the medieval City of London inside the old Roman city wall, while also extending past th ...
at which point he was a shareholder in the
New River Company The New River Company, formally The Governor and Company of the New River brought from Chadwell and Amwell to London, was a privately-owned water supply company in London, England, originally formed around 1609 and incorporated in 1619 by roy ...
. Because of this, Graunt encountered many financial problems that eventually led him to declare bankruptcy. One of his daughters became a nun in a Belgian convent and Graunt decided to convert to
Catholicism The Catholic Church, also known as the Roman Catholic Church, is the largest Christian church, with 1.3 billion baptized Catholics worldwide . It is among the world's oldest and largest international institutions, and has played a ...
at a time when Catholics and Protestants were struggling for control of England and Europe, leading to prosecutions for recusancy. John Graunt died of
jaundice Jaundice, also known as icterus, is a yellowish or greenish pigmentation of the skin and sclera due to high bilirubin levels. Jaundice in adults is typically a sign indicating the presence of underlying diseases involving abnormal heme meta ...
and
liver disease Liver disease, or hepatic disease, is any of many diseases of the liver. If long-lasting it is termed chronic liver disease. Although the diseases differ in detail, liver diseases often have features in common. Signs and symptoms Some of the si ...
at the age of 53.
John Aubrey John Aubrey (12 March 1626 – 7 June 1697) was an English antiquary, natural philosopher and writer. He is perhaps best known as the author of the '' Brief Lives'', his collection of short biographical pieces. He was a pioneer archaeologist ...
reported that he was "a pleasant facetious companion and very hospitable" and noted that his death was "lamented by all good men that had the happinesse to knowe him." Sir
Liam Donaldson Sir Liam Joseph Donaldson (born 3 May 1949) is a British doctor. He was formerly the Chief Medical Officer for England, being the 15th occupant of the post since it was established in 1855. As such, he was principal advisor to the United Kingd ...
paid tribute to Graunt's pioneering work in 2012 on the tenth anniversary of the Public Health Observatories.


''Natural and Political Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality''

Graunt's book ''Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality'' (published 1662
Old Style Old Style (O.S.) and New Style (N.S.) indicate dating systems before and after a calendar change, respectively. Usually, this is the change from the Julian calendar to the Gregorian calendar as enacted in various European countries between 158 ...
or 1663
New Style Old Style (O.S.) and New Style (N.S.) indicate dating systems before and after a calendar change, respectively. Usually, this is the change from the Julian calendar to the Gregorian calendar as enacted in various European countries between 158 ...
) compiled and analyzed data from the Bills of Mortality. Graunt, calculating with the Rule of Three and using ratios obtained by comparing years in the Bills of Mortality, was able to make estimates about the size of the population of London and England, birth rates and mortality rates of males and females, and the rise and spread of certain diseases.


Bills of Mortality

John Graunt's analysis in ''Natural and Political Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality'' consisted of a compilation and an analysis of data from the Bills of Mortality. The Bills of Mortality were documents offering information about the births, deaths, and causes of death in London parishes, printed and distributed weekly on Thursdays (in addition to an annual report released in December). The Bills of Mortality were said by Graunt to begin in 1592, and consistently released starting in 1603. Graunt describes how the data was collected for these Bills in his ''Natural and Political Observations Made Upon the Mortality of Man'': :"When anyone dies, then either by tolling, or by ringing of a Bell, or by bespeaking of a Grave of the Sexton, the same is known to the Searchers, corresponding with the said Sexton. The Searchers hereupon...examine by what Disease, or Casualty the corps died. Hereupon they make their Report to the Parish-Clerk, and he, every Tuesday night, carries in an Accompt of all the Burials, and Christnings, hapning that Week, to the Clerk of the Hall. On Wednesday the general Accompt is made up, and Printed, and on Thursdays published and dispersed to the several Families, who will pay for four shillings per Annum for them.” Graunt's description of the method of data collection for the Bills of Mortality also serves as an example of Graunt's use of scrutiny in appraising the data he was analyzing. Graunt critiqued the collectors ("Searchers") who determined cause of death of the corpses; this critique manifested in Graunt's investigations into the effects on mortality of certain diseases, as Graunt suggested many causes of death were misrepresented.


Epidemiology

Graunt's work reached rudimentary conclusions about the mortality and morbidity of certain diseases. Graunt was highly skeptical of the number of deaths recorded in the Bills of Mortality as due to the plague. Graunt speculated about the reasons for these misclassifications, one of which includes the reliability of those reporting causes of death in the Bills of Mortality. Another example of Graunt's work in epidemiology is his investigation of the sudden surge in deaths in 1634 due to
Rickets Rickets is a condition that results in weak or soft bones in children, and is caused by either dietary deficiency or genetic causes. Symptoms include bowed legs, stunted growth, bone pain, large forehead, and trouble sleeping. Complications ma ...
. Graunt looked at two other causes of death--"Liver-grown" and "Spleen"--in addition to "Rickets," combining the three and comparing the frequency of deaths due to each cause between years. Graunt investigated if the sudden increase in deaths due to rickets in the Bills of Mortality was actually the result of misclassifying corpses who were said to have died from "Liver-grown" and "Spleen." Graunt concluded that "Rickets" as a cause of death was at a maximum for the first time.


Editions of the book

Graunt's work ran to five editions. The first edition lists John Graunt as a citizen. The first edition was printed and presented by Graunt to the
Royal Society of London The Royal Society, formally The Royal Society of London for Improving Natural Knowledge, is a learned society and the United Kingdom's national academy of sciences. The society fulfils a number of roles: promoting science and its benefits, r ...
, after which Graunt was accepted as a member. All successive editions list John Graunt as a member of the Royal Society. The final edition was printed in 1676, after Graunt's death, likely with the help of Sir William Petty.


Impact

John Graunt's application of theory to data was one of the first instances of descriptive statistics. Some of Graunts' tables are the only resource for population data for certain periods of time, due to lost records in the Great Fire of London. After the publication of Graunt's work, France began to collect more descriptive and consistent censuses, though it is unknown if there was a direct connection between these two events. Graunt's work is still used today to study population trends and mortality, for example, studies on suicide. Tribute to Graunt's pioneering work was paid by Sir
Liam Donaldson Sir Liam Joseph Donaldson (born 3 May 1949) is a British doctor. He was formerly the Chief Medical Officer for England, being the 15th occupant of the post since it was established in 1855. As such, he was principal advisor to the United Kingd ...
in 2012 on the tenth anniversary of the Public Health Observatories. In media, he is the narrator of Anthony Clarvoe's 1993 play ''The Living'', which portrays the bubonic plague in London.


See also

* Ratio estimator


References


External links

* Includes 1st edition of ''Observations''. * Non-continuous from 1593. The essay of Graunt is reprinted o
pp. 258
ff after what is erroneously called the sixth edition (1676) o
page 7
(see: Charles Henry Hull - note on Graunt's Observations in The Economic Writings of Sir William Petty, vol. 2, p. 318).
Lecture on ''John Graunt, the law of decline and the origins of urban historical demography''
by Professor Richard Smith (29 November 2012, at Gresham College. Audio, word transcript - with references - and powerpoint presentation) * Sir William Petty, The Economic Writings of Sir William Petty, together with The Observations upon Bills of Mortality, more probably by Captain John Graunt, ed. Charles Henry Hull (Cambridge University Press, 1899), 2 vols. Retrieved 2/16/2020 from the World Wide Web: https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/1677 {{DEFAULTSORT:Graunt, John 1620 births 1674 deaths Converts to Roman Catholicism Demographers English statisticians British actuaries Fellows of the Royal Society Haberdashers