Julius Shiskin (October 13, 1912 – October 28, 1978) was an American economist. He is known for his contributions to establishing rules in the field of economic statistics. His 1974 unofficial rule-of-thumb definition of a

recession In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock). This may be tr ...

continues to be considered by many as the official definition. He authored two books and numerous articles in the field of statistics, and served as the ninth U.S. Commissioner of the

Bureau of Labor Statistics The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a unit of the United States Department of Labor. It is the principal fact-finding agency for the government of the United States, U.S. government in the broad field of labor economics, labor economics and ...

from 1973 until his death.

Family and education

Shiskin was born in New York on October 13, 1912, and completed his primary education in New Jersey where he graduated from

Rutgers University Rutgers University ( ), officially Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, is a Public university, public land-grant research university consisting of three campuses in New Jersey. Chartered in 1766, Rutgers was originally called Queen's C ...

. He was married to Frances Levine and they had two daughters, Laura and Carol.

Career

Shiskin taught economics and statistics at the Rutgers university between the years of 1934 and 1938. From 1938 through 1942, he worked as a staff assistant for the

National Bureau of Economic Research The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic co ...

, and from 1942 to 1945 he was the chief economist for the War Production Board. In 1945 he joined the Census Bureau, where he held positions of Chief of the Economic Research and Analysis Division and assistant director for Program Planning and Evaluation at the Census Bureau. He played a crucial role in the creation of a computerised technique for seasonally adjusting economic time series and was a significant contributor to the advancement of the business-cycle statistics program. Shiskin joined the Office of Management and Budget in 1969 and assumed the role of Commissioner of Labour Statistics in 1973. While he was in this post, the United States experienced the most severe economic downturn since the

Great Depression The Great Depression was a severe global economic downturn from 1929 to 1939. The period was characterized by high rates of unemployment and poverty, drastic reductions in industrial production and international trade, and widespread bank and ...

. Shiskin died on October 28, 1978.

Recession definition

In a 1974 ''

New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...

'' opinion piece about recessions, Shiskin wrote:

The ureau of Labor Statisticss definition of a recession is, however, known to only a small number of specialists in business cycle studies. Many people use a much simpler definition—a two‐quarter decline in real DP While this definition is simplistic, it has worked quite well in the past.

Many have since maintained that this two-quarter rule-of-thumb is the official definition of a recession in the United States. Since 1978, however, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the

has "called" recession starts and ends, which it defines as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months" and involves examination of the depth, diffusion, and duration of the decline.

Memorial Award for Economic Statistics

The annual Julius Shiskin Award for Outstanding Achievement in Economic Statistics is sponsored by the Washington Statistical Society, American Statistical Association, and National Association of Business Economists.

References

{{Authority control 1912 births 1978 deaths 20th-century American economists Fellows of the American Statistical Association Bureau of Labor Statistics Rutgers University faculty National Bureau of Economic Research United States Census Bureau people Rutgers University alumni