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Jeff Rubin (born August 24, 1954) is a Canadian
economist An economist is a professional and practitioner in the social sciences, social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy. Within this ...
and author. He is a former
chief economist Chief economist is a single-position job class having primary responsibility for the development, coordination, and production of economic and financial analysis. It is distinguished from the other economist positions by the broader scope of respons ...
at
CIBC World Markets CIBC Capital Markets is the investment banking subsidiary of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. The firm operates as an investment bank both in Canadian and global equity and debt capital markets. The firm provides a variety of financial se ...
and is currently a senior fellow at the
Centre for International Governance Innovation The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI, pronounced "see-jee") is an independent, non-partisan think tank on global governance. CIGI supports research, forms networks, advances policy debate and generates ideas for multilateral g ...
. Rubin had worked at CIBC World Markets and its predecessors since 1988, and served as chief economist from 1992 to 2009, when he resigned.


Education and early career

Rubin received a B.A. in Economics at the
University of Toronto The University of Toronto (UToronto or U of T) is a public university, public research university whose main campus is located on the grounds that surround Queen's Park (Toronto), Queen's Park in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. It was founded by ...
and an M.A. from
McGill University McGill University (French: Université McGill) is an English-language public research university in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Founded in 1821 by royal charter,Frost, Stanley Brice. ''McGill University, Vol. I. For the Advancement of Learning, ...
. He then worked as an economist in the Ontario Government Treasury Department where he was responsible for projecting future interest rates.


Economic forecasts

In 1988, Rubin moved on to the brokerage firm
Wood Gundy Wood Gundy Inc. was a leading Canadian brokerage firm, stock brokerage and investment banking firm. Founded in 1905, it was acquired by the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in 1988 as it attempted to build an investment banking business. The W ...
which was taken over by CIBC and became first CIBC Wood Gundy and then
CIBC World Markets CIBC Capital Markets is the investment banking subsidiary of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. The firm operates as an investment bank both in Canadian and global equity and debt capital markets. The firm provides a variety of financial se ...
. He has accurately predicted fluctuations in interest rates and the value of the Canadian dollar. In the early 1990s he came to prominence projecting a major decline in the Ontario real estate market. He was one of the first economists to accurately predict soaring oil prices in 2000 and is now a popular commentator on
oil depletion Oil depletion is the decline in oil production of a well, oil field, or geographic area. The Hubbert peak theory makes predictions of production rates based on prior discovery rates and anticipated production rates. Hubbert curves predict that ...
and its economic repercussions. However, in 2008, when a barrel of oil was $135, Rubin predicted that the price will reach $225 by 2012. This prediction turned out to be wrong with the
price of oil The price of oil, or the oil price, generally refers to the spot price of a barrel () of benchmark crude oil—a reference price for buyers and sellers of crude oil such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, OPEC ...
crashing in 2009, which – despite a rebound from 2011 to 2014 – stayed relatively low until 2016.


Publications

Rubin writes a blog published every Wednesday for
The Globe and Mail ''The Globe and Mail'' is a Newspapers in Canada, Canadian newspaper printed in five cities in Western Canada, western and central Canada. With a weekly readership of more than 6 million in 2024, it is Canada's most widely read newspaper on week ...
newspaper. The blog is also published in the Huffington Post. He is an avid fisherman and frequently uses fishing analogies in his writing. Rubin wrote the 2009 book ''Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization'' (), which won the Canadian Business Book of the Year award. The book was also published with U.S. and U.K editions along with editions in French, Spanish, German, Portuguese, and Italian. A second Canadian edition was published in 2010. Jeff Rubin's second book, ''The End of Growth - but is that all bad?'' published by Random House (), was released in Canada in a hard cover edition on May 8, 2012. It follows up on the theme of how oil prices are changing the world. The End of Growth was released in a US edition on October 16, 2012, under the title "The Big Flatline - Oil and the No-Growth Economy" (). A third book published by Random House and titled "The Carbon Bubble - What Happens to us When it Bursts" was released in Canada on May 12, 2015. A fourth book published by Random House and titled "The Expendables - How the Middle Class Got Screwed By Globalization" was released in Canada on August 18, 2020. "A Map of the New Normal: How Inflation, War and Sanctions Will Change Your World Forever" was released in May, 2024. This book explores how central banks' actions during COVID-19 lockdowns set economies on track for massive inflation, in commodities and in wages. Rubin argues that the return of industrial production from low wage countries such as China strengthens the bargaining position of workers, particularly unionized blue collar labor. He writes that grain may become as important as oil, suggesting that Russia could decide to sell its grain only to countries that support its military agenda.


List of works

* ''Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization'' (2009) * ''The End of Growth'' (2012) * ''The Carbon Bubble: What Happens to Us When It Bursts'' (2015) * ''The Expendables: How the Middle Class Got Screwed By Globalization'' (2020) * ''A Map of the New Normal: How Inflation, War and Sanctions Will Change Your World Forever'' (2024)


External links


Jeff speaks about global oil consumption, in Seattle on June 8, 2009

Jeff Rubin Interviewed by Ralph Benmergui on June 18th





jeff rubin's blog


References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Rubin, Jeff Living people Canadian economists 1954 births University of Toronto alumni Canadian bankers McGill University alumni Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce people