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Jay Wright Forrester (July 14, 1918 – November 16, 2016) was an American
computer engineer Computer engineering (CE, CoE, or CpE) is a branch of engineering specialized in developing computer hardware and software. It integrates several fields of electrical engineering, electronics engineering and computer science. Computer engine ...
, management theorist and systems scientist. He spent his entire career at
Massachusetts Institute of Technology The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is a Private university, private research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. Established in 1861, MIT has played a significant role in the development of many areas of moder ...
, entering as a graduate student in 1939, and eventually retiring in 1989. During
World War II World War II or the Second World War (1 September 1939 – 2 September 1945) was a World war, global conflict between two coalitions: the Allies of World War II, Allies and the Axis powers. World War II by country, Nearly all of the wo ...
Forrester worked on
servomechanisms In mechanical and control engineering, a servomechanism (also called servo system, or simply servo) is a control system for the position and its time derivatives, such as velocity, of a mechanical system. It often includes a servomotor, and use ...
as a research assistant to Gordon S. Brown. After the war he headed MIT's Whirlwind
digital computer A computer is a machine that can be programmed to automatically carry out sequences of arithmetic or logical operations (''computation''). Modern digital electronic computers can perform generic sets of operations known as ''programs'', wh ...
project. There he is credited as a co-inventor of
magnetic core memory In computing, magnetic-core memory is a form of random-access memory. It predominated for roughly 20 years between 1955 and 1975, and is often just called core memory, or, informally, core. Core memory uses toroids (rings) of a hard magneti ...
, the predominant form of
random-access Random access (also called direct access) is the ability to access an arbitrary element of a sequence in equal time or any datum from a population of Address space, addressable elements roughly as easily and efficiently as any other, no matter h ...
computer memory Computer memory stores information, such as data and programs, for immediate use in the computer. The term ''memory'' is often synonymous with the terms ''RAM,'' ''main memory,'' or ''primary storage.'' Archaic synonyms for main memory include ...
during the most explosive years of
digital computer A computer is a machine that can be programmed to automatically carry out sequences of arithmetic or logical operations (''computation''). Modern digital electronic computers can perform generic sets of operations known as ''programs'', wh ...
development (between 1955 and 1975). It was part of a family of related technologies which bridged the gap between
vacuum tube A vacuum tube, electron tube, thermionic valve (British usage), or tube (North America) is a device that controls electric current flow in a high vacuum between electrodes to which an electric voltage, potential difference has been applied. It ...
s and
semiconductor A semiconductor is a material with electrical conductivity between that of a conductor and an insulator. Its conductivity can be modified by adding impurities (" doping") to its crystal structure. When two regions with different doping level ...
s by exploiting the magnetic properties of materials to perform switching and amplification. His team is also believed to have created the first
animation Animation is a filmmaking technique whereby still images are manipulated to create moving images. In traditional animation, images are drawn or painted by hand on transparent celluloid sheets to be photographed and exhibited on film. Animati ...
in the history of
computer graphics Computer graphics deals with generating images and art with the aid of computers. Computer graphics is a core technology in digital photography, film, video games, digital art, cell phone and computer displays, and many specialized applications. ...
, a "jumping ball" on an
oscilloscope An oscilloscope (formerly known as an oscillograph, informally scope or O-scope) is a type of electronic test instrument that graphically displays varying voltages of one or more signals as a function of time. Their main purpose is capturing i ...
. Later, Forrester was a professor at the
MIT Sloan School of Management The MIT Sloan School of Management (branded as MIT Sloan) is the business school of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a private university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. MIT Sloan offers bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degree progra ...
, where he introduced the Forrester effect describing fluctuations in
supply chain A supply chain is a complex logistics system that consists of facilities that convert raw materials into finished products and distribute them to end consumers or end customers, while supply chain management deals with the flow of goods in distri ...
s.System Dynamics Revie
(5 Oct 2022) Fons et origo: reflections on the 60th anniversary of ''Industrial Dynamics''
/ref> He has been credited as a founder of system dynamics, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in dynamic systems. After his initial efforts in industrial simulation, Forrester attempted to simulate urban dynamics and then world dynamics, developing a model with the
Club of Rome The Club of Rome is a nonprofit, informal organization of intellectuals and business leaders whose goal is a critical discussion of pressing list of global issues, global issues. The Club of Rome was founded in 1968 at Accademia dei Lincei in R ...
along the lines of the model popularized in ''
The Limits to Growth ''The Limits to Growth'' (''LTG'') is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential Economic growth, economic and population growth with finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer ...
''. Today system dynamics is most often applied to research and consulting in organizations and other social systems.


Early life and education

Forrester was born on a farm near Anselmo, Nebraska, where "his early interest in electricity was spurred, perhaps, by the fact that the ranch had none. While in high school, he built a wind-driven, 12-volt electrical system using old car parts—it gave the ranch its first electric power."Biography Jay Forrester
on ''thocp.net'', 2005. Accessed August 18, 2013
Forrester received his Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering in 1939 from the
University of Nebraska–Lincoln The University of Nebraska–Lincoln (Nebraska, NU, or UNL) is a Public university, public Land-grant university, land-grant research university in Lincoln, Nebraska, United States. Chartered in 1869 by the Nebraska Legislature as part of the M ...
. He went on to graduate school at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is a Private university, private research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States. Established in 1861, MIT has played a significant role in the development of many areas of moder ...
, where he worked with
servomechanism In mechanical and control engineering, a servomechanism (also called servo system, or simply servo) is a control system for the position and its time derivatives, such as velocity, of a mechanical system. It often includes a servomotor, and ...
pioneer Gordon S. Brown and gained his master's in 1945 with a thesis on 'Hydraulic Servomechanism Developments'. In 1949 he was inducted into Eta Kappa Nu the Electrical & Computer Engineering Honor Society.


Career


Whirlwind projects

During the late 1940s and early 50s, Forrester continued research in electrical and computer engineering at MIT, heading the Whirlwind project.Katie Hafner
"Jay W. Forrester Dies at 98; a Pioneer in Computer Models"
''
The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''NYT'') is an American daily newspaper based in New York City. ''The New York Times'' covers domestic, national, and international news, and publishes opinion pieces, investigative reports, and reviews. As one of ...
'', November 17, 2016.
Trying to design an aircraft simulator, the group moved away from an initial analog design to develop a
digital computer A computer is a machine that can be programmed to automatically carry out sequences of arithmetic or logical operations (''computation''). Modern digital electronic computers can perform generic sets of operations known as ''programs'', wh ...
. As a key part of this design, Forrester perfected and patented multi-dimensional addressable
magnetic-core memory In computing, magnetic-core memory is a form of random-access memory. It predominated for roughly 20 years between 1955 and 1975, and is often just called core memory, or, informally, core. Core memory uses toroids (rings) of a hard magneti ...
,Multicoordinate digital information storage device
US patent 2736880
the forerunner of today's RAM. In 1948-49 the Whirlwind team created the first
animation Animation is a filmmaking technique whereby still images are manipulated to create moving images. In traditional animation, images are drawn or painted by hand on transparent celluloid sheets to be photographed and exhibited on film. Animati ...
in the history of
computer graphics Computer graphics deals with generating images and art with the aid of computers. Computer graphics is a core technology in digital photography, film, video games, digital art, cell phone and computer displays, and many specialized applications. ...
, a "jumping ball" on an
oscilloscope An oscilloscope (formerly known as an oscillograph, informally scope or O-scope) is a type of electronic test instrument that graphically displays varying voltages of one or more signals as a function of time. Their main purpose is capturing i ...
. Whirlwind began operation in 1951, the first digital computer to operate in real time and to use video displays for output. It subsequently evolved into the air defence system
Semi-Automatic Ground Environment The Semi-Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE) was a system of mainframe computer, large computers and associated computer network, networking equipment that coordinated data from many radar sites and processed it to produce a single unified image ...
(SAGE).


DEC board member

Forrester was invited to join the board of
Digital Equipment Corporation Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC ), using the trademark Digital, was a major American company in the computer industry from the 1960s to the 1990s. The company was co-founded by Ken Olsen and Harlan Anderson in 1957. Olsen was president until ...
by Ken Olsen in 1957, and advised the early company on management science. He left before 1966 due to changes in DEC to a product line led organisation.


Forrester effect

In 1956, Forrester moved to the
MIT Sloan School of Management The MIT Sloan School of Management (branded as MIT Sloan) is the business school of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a private university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. MIT Sloan offers bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degree progra ...
as Germeshausen professor. After his retirement, he continued until 1989 as Professor Emeritus and Senior Lecturer. In 1961 he published his seminal book, Industrial Dynamics, the first work in the field of System Dynamics. The work resulted from analyzing the operations of Sprague Electric in Massachusetts. The study was the first model of
supply chain A supply chain is a complex logistics system that consists of facilities that convert raw materials into finished products and distribute them to end consumers or end customers, while supply chain management deals with the flow of goods in distri ...
s, showing in this case that inventory fluctuations were not due to external factors as thought, but rather to internal corporate dynamics that his continuous modelling approach could detect. The phenomenon, originally called the Forrester effect, is today more frequently described as the "bullwhip effect".


System dynamics

Forrester was the founder of system dynamics, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in dynamic systems. ''Industrial Dynamics'' was the first book Forrester wrote using system dynamics to analyze industrial business cycles. Several years later, interactions with former Boston Mayor John F. Collins led Forrester to write ''Urban Dynamics'', which sparked an ongoing debate on the feasibility of modeling broader social problems. The book went on to influence the video game
SimCity ''SimCity'' is an open-ended city-building video game franchise originally designed by Will Wright. The first game in the series, '' SimCity'', was published by Maxis in 1989 and was followed by several sequels and many other spin-off ''S ...
. Forrester's 1971 paper 'Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems' argued that the use of computerized system models to inform social policy was superior to simple debate, both in generating insight into the root causes of problems and in understanding the likely effects of proposed solutions. He characterized normal debate and discussion as being dominated by inexact mental models: The paper summarized the results of a previous study on the system dynamics governing the economies of urban centers, which showed "how industry, housing, and people interact with each other as a city grows and decays." The study's findings, presented more fully in Forrester's 1969 book ''Urban Dynamics'', suggested that the root cause of depressed economic conditions was a shortage of job opportunities relative to the population level, and that the most popular solutions proposed at the time (e.g. increasing low-income housing availability, or reducing real estate taxes) counter-intuitively would worsen the situation by increasing this relative shortage. The paper further argued that measures to reduce the shortage—such as converting land use from housing to industry, or increasing real estate taxes to spur property redevelopment—would be similarly counter-effective.Jay Wright Forreste
(1969) ''Urban Dynamics''. Pegasus Communications
documentation of a computer model


Club of Rome

'Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems' also sketched a model of world dynamics that correlated population, food production, industrial development, pollution, availability of natural resources, and quality of life, and attempted future projections of those values under various assumptions. Forrester presented this model more fully in his 1971 book ''World Dynamics'', notable for serving as the initial basis for the World3 model used by Donella and Dennis Meadows in their popular 1972 book ''
The Limits to Growth ''The Limits to Growth'' (''LTG'') is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential Economic growth, economic and population growth with finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer ...
''. Forrester met Aurelio Peccei, a founder of the
Club of Rome The Club of Rome is a nonprofit, informal organization of intellectuals and business leaders whose goal is a critical discussion of pressing list of global issues, global issues. The Club of Rome was founded in 1968 at Accademia dei Lincei in R ...
in 1970.Ugo Bard
Jay Wright Forrester (1918–2016): His Contribution to the Concept of Overshoot in Socioeconomic Systems
/ref> He later met with the Club of Rome to discuss issues surrounding global sustainability; the book ''World Dynamics'' followed. ''World Dynamics'' took on modeling the complex interactions of the world
economy An economy is an area of the Production (economics), production, Distribution (economics), distribution and trade, as well as Consumption (economics), consumption of Goods (economics), goods and Service (economics), services. In general, it is ...
,
population Population is a set of humans or other organisms in a given region or area. Governments conduct a census to quantify the resident population size within a given jurisdiction. The term is also applied to non-human animals, microorganisms, and pl ...
and
ecology Ecology () is the natural science of the relationships among living organisms and their Natural environment, environment. Ecology considers organisms at the individual, population, community (ecology), community, ecosystem, and biosphere lev ...
, which was controversial (see also
Donella Meadows Donella Hager "Dana" Meadows (March 13, 1941 – February 20, 2001) was an American environmental scientist, educator, and writer. She is best known as lead author of the books '' The Limits to Growth'' and '' Thinking In Systems: A Primer''. ...
and ''
The Limits to Growth ''The Limits to Growth'' (''LTG'') is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential Economic growth, economic and population growth with finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer ...
''). It was the start of the field of global modeling. Forrester continued working in applications of system dynamics and promoting its use in education.


Awards

In 1972, Forrester received the IEEE Medal of Honor,
IEEE The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) is an American 501(c)(3) organization, 501(c)(3) public charity professional organization for electrical engineering, electronics engineering, and other related disciplines. The IEEE ...
s highest award.IEEE Medal of Honor
recipients of IEEE's highest award, established 1917.
In 1982, he received the
IEEE The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) is an American 501(c)(3) organization, 501(c)(3) public charity professional organization for electrical engineering, electronics engineering, and other related disciplines. The IEEE ...
Computer Pioneer Award. In 1995, he was made a Fellow of the
Computer History Museum The Computer History Museum (CHM) is a computer museum in Mountain View, California. The museum presents stories and artifacts of Silicon Valley and the Information Age, and explores the Digital Revolution, computing revolution and its impact ...
"for his perfecting of core memory technology into a practical computer memory device; for fundamental contributions to early computer systems design and development". In 2006, he was inducted into the Operational Research Hall of Fame.


Publications

Forrester wrote several books, including: * * 1968. ''Principles of Systems'', 2nd ed. Pegasus Communications. * 1969. ''Urban Dynamics''. Pegasus Communications. * 1971. ''World Dynamics''. Wright-Allen Press. Nordhaus WD. (1973) World Dynamics: Measurement without Data. ''Economic Journal''. 1973;83(332):1156-1183. doi:10.2307/2230846 * 1975. ''Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester''. Pegasus Communications. His articles and papers include: * 1958. 'Industrial Dynamics – A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers', ''Harvard Business Review'', Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 37–66. * 1968, 'Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment', ''Industrial Management Review'', Vol. IX, No. 2, Winter 1968. * 1971, 'Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems', ''Theory and Decision'', Vol. 2, December 1971, pp. 109–140. Also availabl
online
* 1989, 'The Beginning of System Dynamics'. Banquet Talk at the international meeting of the System Dynamics Society, Stuttgart, Germany, July 13, 1989. MIT System Dynamics Group Memo D. * 1992, 'System Dynamics and Learner-Centered-Learning in Kindergarten through 12th Grade Education.' * 1993, 'System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years', in Kenyon B. Greene (ed.) ''A Systems-Based Approach to Policymaking'', New York: Springer, pp. 199–240. * 1996, 'System Dynamics and K–12 Teachers: a lecture at the University of Virginia School of Education'. * 1998, 'Designing the Future'. Lecture at Universidad de Sevilla, December 15, 1998. * 1999, 'System Dynamics: the Foundation Under Systems Thinking'. Cambridge, MA: Sloan School of Management. * 2016, 'Learning through System Dynamics as preparation for the 21st Century', ''System Dynamics Review'', Vol. 32, pp. 187–203.


See also

* DYNAMO (programming language) * Roger Sisson


References


External links


Selected papers by Forrester.
*
Biography of Jay W. Forrester
from the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
"The many careers of Jay Forrester," ''MIT Technology Review'', June 23, 2015
*Jay Wright Forrester Papers, MC 439, box X. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute Archives and Special Collections, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
J. W. Forrester and the History of System Dynamics
{{DEFAULTSORT:Forrester, Jay 1918 births 2016 deaths 20th-century American inventors American systems scientists Computer engineers American operations researchers IEEE Medal of Honor recipients Massachusetts Institute of Technology alumni National Medal of Technology recipients Members of the United States National Academy of Engineering MIT Sloan School of Management faculty University of Nebraska–Lincoln alumni People from Custer County, Nebraska Howard N. Potts Medal recipients Valdemar Poulsen Gold Medal recipients