Hurricane Rafael (2024)

Hurricane Rafael was the strongest November tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico on record, tied with 1985's Hurricane Kate. The seventeenth named storm, eleventh hurricane, and fifth major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Rafael formed on November 4, 2024 from an area of low-pressure spawned by a Central American gyre. Steady organization occurred throughout the next two days, with Rafael becoming a hurricane early on November 6, as it moved northwest towards Cuba. Favorable conditions enabled the cyclone to rapidly intensify, becoming a Category 3 major hurricane later that day before landfall in Cuba. Then, after weakening some while over land, it entered the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensified to a major hurricane once again at peak intensity early on November 8. Hostile conditions, including wind shear and cooler sea-surface temperatures, caused the hurricane to rapidly weaken afterward, falling below hurricane intensity later that day, and eventually degenerating into a remnant low on November 10. The circulation opened up into a trough the next day.

Two deaths have been confirmed in Jamaica as a result of flooding caused by Rafael. Additionally, at least five deaths in Panama occurred due to heavy flooding and landslides produced by Rafael's precursor disturbance, along with one death in Colombia. Preliminary damages are estimated to be at least US$1.35 billion.

Meteorological history

On October 26, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring the southwestern Caribbean in anticipation of tropical development. Several days later, on November 1, a broad area of low pressure developed over the southwestern Caribbean, associated with a Central American gyre. The disturbance initially remained disorganized, but began showing signs of organization on November 3. That afternoon, Air Force Hurricane Hunters collected data showing that the system had developed a closed center but that deep convection had not yet become organized enough for it to be declared a tropical depression. Due to the disturbance's impending threat to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, the NHC designated the developing storm Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. The following day, data from the Hurricane Hunters, satellite imagery, and surface observations revealed that the disturbance had developed a well-defined center and was producing organized deep convection; it was accordingly upgraded to Tropical Depression Eighteen the morning of November 4.

At the time, the newly-formed cyclone was located about south of Kingston, Jamaica. Amid favorable conditions, including warmer than average sea surface temperatures of , the depression continued to strengthen and became Tropical Storm Rafael that afternoon.
The storm tracked northwestward along the southwestern side of a ridge over the western Atlantic on November 5, and passed to the west of Jamaica. That afternoon it developed an inner wind core, and strengthened into a hurricane early on November 6. Rapid intensification ensued throughout the morning as a small eye became visible, with Rafael becoming a Category 3 major hurricane that afternoon as it neared Cuba, eventually making landfall in the province of Artemisa, just east of Playa Majana, at 21:15 UTC on November 6, with sustained winds of . A few hours later, the system entered the Gulf of Mexico as a weaker Category 2 hurricane. It then proceeded to turn west-northwestward and re-intensify, becoming a major hurricane once again early on November 8 with peak winds of .

Later that afternoon, however, the system turned westward and began losing strength and organization due to increasing westerly wind shear and dry air intrusion. This trend continued, and Rafael was downgraded to a tropical storm late that same day. By late the following day, the storm's convection was limited to the northeast of an exposed and broad low-level center. On November 10, Rafael's remaining convection collapsed, and it degenerated into a remnant low while drifting over the central Gulf, before opening up into a trough on the next day. The remnant trough continued meandering until dissipating early on November 13.

Preparations

Panama

On November 2, the Government of Panama issued a red warning from Chiriquí to Veraguas. Panama's emergency services agency asked residents and tourists to pay attention to weather warnings issued by authorities and noted the threat of heavy rain and strong waves. Several yellow alerts, signifying the threat of the impending weather, were issued for the western portion of the nation. Colón, Coclé, and Kuna Yala had red warnings declared for them. Classes were suspended in five provinces, while the government opened nine emergency shelters.

Jamaica

Once the precursor to Rafael was designated as a potential tropical cyclone, a tropical storm warning was issued for Jamaica. Two matches in the Jamaica Premier League, originally scheduled for November 4, were postponed. Additionally, several matches in the Manning Cup had to be delayed due to the storm. The University of the West Indies closed all clinics and non-emergency services due to the storm.

Cayman Islands

At the time Rafael's precursor was designated as a potential tropical cyclone on November 3, a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Cayman Islands. The following morning, the watch covering the Cayman Islands was replaced with a Hurricane Warning. Due to the storm, all government schools and the University College of the Cayman Islands were closed on November 5. Cayman Airways confirmed that their fleet had been secured. The Cayman Islands Regiment deployed to Cayman Brac and Little Cayman for the first time. Eight were sent to Little Cayman, and ten were sent to Cayman Brac. Sandbags were made available for the residents of Cayman Brac and Grand Cayman. Shelters were also opened in Cayman Brac and Little Cayman. Several government offices closed in preparation for Rafael. The Cayman Islands' Bankers Association closed all banks on November 5.

Cuba

A hurricane watch went into effect for six eastern provinces of Cuba on November 4. The provinces of Camagüey and Las Tunas saw a tropical storm warning go into effect. Due to the system's expected impacts, over 66,000 people were evacuated from Guantánamo province. Additionally, several flights were cancelled, and maritime traffic between Batabanó and Nueva Gerona was suspended. Classes were suspended in multiple provinces with transportation services halted in multiple towns in Western Cuba, including the capital city Havana

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