The junkyard tornado, sometimes known as Hoyle's fallacy, is a fallacious argument formulated by

Fred Hoyle Sir Fred Hoyle (24 June 1915 – 20 August 2001) was an English astronomer who formulated the theory of stellar nucleosynthesis and was one of the authors of the influential B2FH paper, B2FH paper. He also held controversial stances on oth ...

against Earth-based

abiogenesis Abiogenesis is the natural process by which life arises from non-living matter, such as simple organic compounds. The prevailing scientific hypothesis is that the transition from non-living to living entities on Earth was not a single even ...

and in favor of

panspermia Panspermia () is the hypothesis that life exists throughout the universe, distributed by space dust, meteoroids, asteroids, comets, and planetoids, as well as by spacecraft carrying unintended contamination by microorganisms,Forward planetary c ...

. The junkyard tornado argument has been taken out of its original context by theists to argue for

intelligent design Intelligent design (ID) is a pseudoscientific argument for the existence of God, presented by its proponents as "an evidence-based scientific theory about life's origins".#Numbers 2006, Numbers 2006, p. 373; " Dcaptured headlines for it ...

, and has since become a mainstay in the

rejection of evolution by religious groups Recurring cultural, political, and theological rejection of evolution by religious groups exists regarding the origins of the Earth, of humanity, and of other life. In accordance with creationism, species were once widely believed to be fixed ...

, even though Fred Hoyle declared himself an atheist, and even though the junkyard tornado argument is considered a fallacy in its original context of Earth-based

vs.

. The junkyard tornado argument uses a calculation of the probability of abiogenesis based on false assumptions, as comparable to "a tornado sweeping through a junk-yard might assemble a

Boeing 747 The Boeing 747 is a long-range wide-body aircraft, wide-body airliner designed and manufactured by Boeing Commercial Airplanes in the United States between 1968 and 2023. After the introduction of the Boeing 707, 707 in October 1958, Pan Am ...

from the materials therein" and to compare the chance of obtaining even a single functioning

protein Proteins are large biomolecules and macromolecules that comprise one or more long chains of amino acid residue (biochemistry), residues. Proteins perform a vast array of functions within organisms, including Enzyme catalysis, catalysing metab ...

by chance combination of

amino acid Amino acids are organic compounds that contain both amino and carboxylic acid functional groups. Although over 500 amino acids exist in nature, by far the most important are the 22 α-amino acids incorporated into proteins. Only these 22 a ...

s to a solar system full of blind men solving Rubik's Cubes simultaneously. It was used originally by English astronomer

(1915–2001) in his book ''The Intelligent Universe'', where he tried to apply statistics to evolution and the origin of life. Similar reasoning was advanced in Darwin's time, and indeed as long ago as

Cicero Marcus Tullius Cicero ( ; ; 3 January 106 BC – 7 December 43 BC) was a Roman statesman, lawyer, scholar, philosopher, orator, writer and Academic skeptic, who tried to uphold optimate principles during the political crises tha ...

classical antiquity Classical antiquity, also known as the classical era, classical period, classical age, or simply antiquity, is the period of cultural History of Europe, European history between the 8th century BC and the 5th century AD comprising the inter ...

. Hoyle's fallacy contradicts many well-established and widely tested principles in the field of

evolutionary biology Evolutionary biology is the subfield of biology that studies the evolutionary processes such as natural selection, common descent, and speciation that produced the diversity of life on Earth. In the 1930s, the discipline of evolutionary biolo ...

. As the fallacy argues, the odds of the sudden construction of higher lifeforms are indeed improbable. However, what the junkyard tornado postulation fails to take into account is the vast amount of support that evolution proceeds in many smaller stages, each driven by

natural selection Natural selection is the differential survival and reproduction of individuals due to differences in phenotype. It is a key mechanism of evolution, the change in the Heredity, heritable traits characteristic of a population over generation ...

rather than by random chance, over a long period of time. The Boeing 747 was not designed in a single unlikely burst of creativity, just as modern lifeforms were not constructed in one single unlikely event, as the junkyard tornado scenario suggests. The

theory of evolution Evolution is the change in the heritable characteristics of biological populations over successive generations. It occurs when evolutionary processes such as natural selection and genetic drift act on genetic variation, resulting in certai ...

has been studied and tested extensively by numerous researchers and scientists and is the most scientifically accurate explanation for the origins of complex life.

Hoyle's statement

According to

's analysis, the probability of obtaining all of life's approximate 2000

enzymes An enzyme () is a protein that acts as a biological catalyst by accelerating chemical reactions. The molecules upon which enzymes may act are called substrates, and the enzyme converts the substrates into different molecules known as pro ...

in a random trial is about one-in-10^40,000: His junkyard analogy: This echoes his stance, reported elsewhere: Hoyle used this to argue in favor of

, that the origin of life on Earth was from preexisting life in space.

History and reception

The junkyard tornado derives from arguments most popular in the 1920s, prior to the

modern evolutionary synthesis Modern synthesis or modern evolutionary synthesis refers to several perspectives on evolutionary biology, namely: * Modern synthesis (20th century), the term coined by Julian Huxley in 1942 to denote the synthesis between Mendelian genetics and s ...

, which are rejected by evolutionary biologists. A preliminary step is to establish that the

phase space The phase space of a physical system is the set of all possible physical states of the system when described by a given parameterization. Each possible state corresponds uniquely to a point in the phase space. For mechanical systems, the p ...

containing some biological entity (such as humans, working cells, or the eye) is enormous, something not contentious. The argument is then to infer from the huge size of the phase space that the probability that the entity could appear by chance is exceedingly low, ignoring the key process involved,

. Sometimes, arguments invoking the junkyard tornado analogy also invoke the

universal probability bound A universal probability bound is a probabilistic threshold whose existence is asserted by William A. Dembski and is used by him in his works promoting intelligent design. It is defined as Dembski asserts that one can effectively estimate a posit ...

, which claims that highly improbable events do not occur. It is refuted by the fact that if ''all'' possible outcomes of a natural process are highly improbable when taken individually, then one of the highly improbable outcomes is certain. The true law being referenced is actually the

Strong Law of large numbers In probability theory, the law of large numbers is a mathematical law that states that the average of the results obtained from a large number of independent random samples converges to the true value, if it exists. More formally, the law o ...

, but creationists have taken a simple statement made by Borel in books written late in his life concerning probability theory and called this statement

Borel's Law A universal probability bound is a probabilistic threshold whose existence is asserted by William A. Dembski and is used by him in his works promoting intelligent design. It is defined as Dembski asserts that one can effectively estimate a posit ...

. The calculation of the probability ignores

and falsely assumes that there is

discrete uniform distribution In probability theory and statistics, the discrete uniform distribution is a symmetric probability distribution wherein each of some finite whole number ''n'' of outcome values are equally likely to be observed. Thus every one of the ''n'' out ...

. The junkyard tornado is also applied to cellular biochemistry. This is comparable to the older

infinite monkey theorem The infinite monkey theorem states that a monkey hitting keys independently and at randomness, random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinity, infinite amount of time will almost surely type any given text, including the complete works of Willi ...

but instead of the works of

William Shakespeare William Shakespeare ( 23 April 1564 – 23 April 1616) was an English playwright, poet and actor. He is widely regarded as the greatest writer in the English language and the world's pre-eminent dramatist. He is often called England's nation ...

, the claim is that the probability that a

molecule could achieve a functional sequence of

amino acids Amino acids are organic compounds that contain both amino and carboxylic acid functional groups. Although over 500 amino acids exist in nature, by far the most important are the Proteinogenic amino acid, 22 α-amino acids incorporated into p ...

is too low to be realised by chance alone. The argument conflates the difference between the complexity that arises from living organisms that are able to reproduce themselves (and as such may evolve under natural selection to become better adapted and perhaps more complex over time) with the complexity of inanimate objects, unable to pass on any reproductive changes (such as the multitude of manufactured parts in a

). The comparison breaks down because of this important distinction. According to Ian Musgrave in ''Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations'': The junkyard tornado argument is rejected by evolutionary biologists as based on false assumptions, since "no biologist imagines that complex structures arise in a single step", as

John Maynard Smith John Maynard Smith (6 January 1920 – 19 April 2004) was a British mathematical and theoretical biology, theoretical and mathematical evolutionary biologist and geneticist. Originally an aeronautical engineer during the Second World War, he ...

put it.

Evolutionary biology Evolutionary biology is the subfield of biology that studies the evolutionary processes such as natural selection, common descent, and speciation that produced the diversity of life on Earth. In the 1930s, the discipline of evolutionary biolo ...

explains how complex cellular structures evolved by analysing the intermediate steps required for precellular life. It is these intermediate steps that are omitted in creationist arguments, which is the cause of their overestimating of the improbability of the entire process. Hoyle's argument is a mainstay of pseudosciences like

creation science Creation science or scientific creationism is a pseudoscientific form of Young Earth creationism which claims to offer scientific arguments for certain literalist and inerrantist interpretations of the Bible. It is often presented without ov ...

and

Richard Dawkins Richard Dawkins (born 26 March 1941) is a British evolutionary biology, evolutionary biologist, zoologist, science communicator and author. He is an Oxford fellow, emeritus fellow of New College, Oxford, and was Simonyi Professor for the Publ ...

described it as a fallacy in his book ''

The God Delusion ''The God Delusion'' is a 2006 book by British evolutionary biologist and ethologist Richard Dawkins. In ''The God Delusion'', Dawkins contends that a supernatural creator, God, almost certainly does not exist, and that belief in a personal ...

'', arguing that the existence of God, who under theistic uses of Hoyle's argument is implicitly responsible for the origin of life, defies probability far more than does the spontaneous origin of life even given Hoyle's assumptions. Dawkins describes God as the

Ultimate Boeing 747 gambit The Ultimate Boeing 747 gambit is a counter-argument to modern versions of the argument from design for the existence of God. It was introduced by Richard Dawkins in chapter 4 of his 2006 book '' The God Delusion'', "Why there almost certainly ...

, an argument that philosopher

Alvin Plantinga Alvin Carl Plantinga (born November 15, 1932) is an American analytic philosophy, analytic philosopher who works primarily in the fields of philosophy of religion, epistemology (particularly on issues involving theory of justification, epistemic ...

criticised by questioning Dawkins' contention that God is necessarily complex.

References

External links

"A memorable misunderstanding"
Fred Hoyle's Boeing-story in the Evolution/Creation literature by Gert Korthof

Contains a number of Hoyle quotations on evolution. {{God arguments Origin of life Creationist objections to evolution Informal fallacies Biological evolution Coincidence Fred Hoyle

Hoyle's statement

History and reception

See also

References

External links