Earthquake scenario is a planning tool to determine the appropriate emergency responses or building systems in areas exposed to earthquake hazards. It uses the basics of

seismic hazard A seismic hazard is the probability that an earthquake will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold. With a hazard thus estimated, risk can be assessed and incl ...

studies, but usually places a set

earthquake An earthquake (also known as a quake, tremor or temblor) is the shaking of the surface of the Earth resulting from a sudden release of energy in the Earth's lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes can range in intensity, fr ...

on a specific fault, most likely near a high-population area. Most scenarios relate directly to

urban seismic risk Urban seismic risk is a subset of the general term seismic risk which describes the problems specific to centers of population when they are subjected to earthquakes. Many risks can be minimized with good earthquake construction, and seismic an ...

, and

seismic risk Seismic risk refers to the risk of damage from earthquake to a building, system, or other entity. Seismic risk has been defined, for most management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events th ...

in general. Some earthquake scenarios follow some of the latest methodologies from the nuclear industry, namely a Seismic Margin Assessment (SMA). In the process, a Review Level Earthquake (RLE) is chosen that challenges the system, has a reasonable probability, and is not totally overwhelming. Scenarios have been developed for Seattle, New York City, and many of the faults in

California California is a state in the Western United States, located along the Pacific Coast. With nearly 39.2million residents across a total area of approximately , it is the most populous U.S. state and the 3rd largest by area. It is also the m ...

. In general, areas west of the Rockies use urban earthquakes of M7 (

moment magnitude The moment magnitude scale (MMS; denoted explicitly with or Mw, and generally implied with use of a single M for magnitude) is a measure of an earthquake's magnitude ("size" or strength) based on its seismic moment. It was defined in a 1979 pape ...

), and eastern cities use an M6. Some eastern cities do not have an earthquake scenario. As an example, the Greater Toronto area in Ontario, Canada has a local seismicity The Southern Ontario Seismic Network
/ref> with about as much a chance for an M6 as most of the moderate earthquake zones of Eastern North America (ENA), including New York City. As seen on the map, the RLE would be an M6 located in the western end of Lake Ontario. It could be suspected that the damage would follow the New York City scenario, with extensive damage to lifelines, and brick buildings on soft ground.

Notes

External links

Infrastructure Risk Research Project at The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
{{Webarchive, url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191218054857/http://inrisk.ubc.ca/ , date=2019-12-18 Earthquake and seismic risk mitigation Disaster preparedness