Elmo Burns Roper Jr. (July 31, 1900 in

Hebron Hebron (; , or ; , ) is a Palestinian city in the southern West Bank, south of Jerusalem. Hebron is capital of the Hebron Governorate, the largest Governorates of Palestine, governorate in the West Bank. With a population of 201,063 in ...

Nebraska Nebraska ( ) is a landlocked U.S. state, state in the Midwestern United States, Midwestern region of the United States. It borders South Dakota to the north; Iowa to the east and Missouri to the southeast, both across the Missouri River; Ka ...

– April 30, 1971 in Redding,

Connecticut Connecticut ( ) is a U.S. state, state in the New England region of the Northeastern United States. It borders Rhode Island to the east, Massachusetts to the north, New York (state), New York to the west, and Long Island Sound to the south. ...

) was an American pollster known for his pioneering work in

market research Market research is an organized effort to gather information about target markets and customers. It involves understanding who they are and what they need. It is an important component of business strategy and a major factor in maintaining com ...

and

opinion poll An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of qu ...

ing, alongside friends-cum-rivals Archibald Crossley and

George Gallup George Horace Gallup (November 18, 1901 – July 26, 1984) was an American pioneer of survey sampling techniques and inventor of the Gallup poll, a statistics, statistically-based survey sampling, survey sampled measure of opinion polls, public ...

Early life

Elmo Burns Roper, Jr. was born in Hebron, Nebraska, on July 31, 1900. His father, Elmo Burns Roper, was a banker. After receiving his preliminary education, he attended the

University of Minnesota The University of Minnesota Twin Cities (historically known as University of Minnesota) is a public university, public Land-grant university, land-grant research university in the Minneapolis–Saint Paul, Twin Cities of Minneapolis and Saint ...

and the

University of Edinburgh The University of Edinburgh (, ; abbreviated as ''Edin.'' in Post-nominal letters, post-nominals) is a Public university, public research university based in Edinburgh, Scotland. Founded by the City of Edinburgh Council, town council under th ...

from 1919 to 1921, but did not receive a degree. In 1921, he started a jewelry store, which made him interested in customer opinions. However, the store was closed in 1928. In the following years, he worked as a salesman for the Seth Thomas Clock Company and the New Haven Clock Company. In 1933, during the

Great Depression The Great Depression was a severe global economic downturn from 1929 to 1939. The period was characterized by high rates of unemployment and poverty, drastic reductions in industrial production and international trade, and widespread bank and ...

, Roper became a sales analyst for the Traub Manufacturing Company.

Career

In 1933, Roper, alongside Richardson Wood and Paul T. Cherington, co-founded "Cherington, Wood, and Roper", a marketing research firm. Woods suggested Henry Luce, the director of '' Fortune'' magazine, to include survey of social and political trend in the magazine; Luce agreed. Subsequently in 1935, Roper became the director of the ''Fortune'' survey. Unlike other popular surveys, his survey relied on relatively fewer respondents. This initially lead to many questioning poll's accuracy. The ''Fortune'' survey was the first national poll to use scientific sampling strategies. In the 1936 presidential election, incumbent Democratic President

Franklin D. Roosevelt Franklin Delano Roosevelt (January 30, 1882April 12, 1945), also known as FDR, was the 32nd president of the United States, serving from 1933 until his death in 1945. He is the longest-serving U.S. president, and the only one to have served ...

was challenged by Alf Landon, the Republican candidate. '' The Literary Digest'' presidential poll, which surveyed millions of people, predicted Landon to win. However, Roper, and other pollsters like

and Archibald Crossley predicted Roosevelt's re-election. Roper predicted Roosevelt to receive 61.7% of the popular vote. His prediction was correct to within 0.9%; Roosevelt received 60.7% of the popular vote. In the 1940 presidential election, Roper again predicted Roosevelt's victory against Wendell Willkie. His prediction was correct to within 0.5%. In the 1944 presidential election, he again accurately predicted Roosevelt to win a fourth term again Thomas E. Dewey. In the 1948 presidential election, however, Roper predicted Dewey to defeat the incumbent Democratic President Harry S. Truman. He announced that his organization would discontinue polling since it had already predicted Dewey's victory by a large majority of electoral votes. He said that his whole inclination was to predict Dewey's victory by a heavy margin, and to devote his time and efforts in other things. His latest poll showed Dewey leading by an "unbeatable" 44% to Truman's 31%. When that partnership fell apart, he founded his own research company, Elmo Roper, Inc. In 1940, Roosevelt hired Roper to assess public opinion of Lend-Lease prior to its implementation. In 1942 he was hired by William Joseph Donovan to be the deputy director of the

Office of Strategic Services The Office of Strategic Services (OSS) was the first intelligence agency of the United States, formed during World War II. The OSS was formed as an agency of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) to coordinate espionage activities behind enemy lines ...

; Roper subsequently worked with the Office of War Information. After leaving the OWI he founded the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the

Williams College Williams College is a Private college, private liberal arts colleges in the United States, liberal arts college in Williamstown, Massachusetts, United States. It was established as a men's college in 1793 with funds from the estate of Ephraim ...

in 1947. From 1956 he served as chairman of board of directors of Fund for the Republic succeeding Paul G. Hoffman. Roper Opinion Research Company (the "Roper Poll") was later renamed Roper Starch Worldwide Company and eventually acquired by NOP World and then GfK in 2005.

Personal life and family

His son, Bud Roper, was also a pollster.Pioneering pollster Burns Roper dead at 77
,

Associated Press The Associated Press (AP) is an American not-for-profit organization, not-for-profit news agency headquartered in New York City. Founded in 1846, it operates as a cooperative, unincorporated association, and produces news reports that are dist ...

, January 23, 2003, archived at

Carnegie Mellon University Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) is a private research university in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States. The institution was established in 1900 by Andrew Carnegie as the Carnegie Technical Schools. In 1912, it became the Carnegie Institu ...

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Roper, Elmo 1900 births 1971 deaths People of the Office of Strategic Services People of the United States Office of War Information American political consultants Market researchers Pollsters People from Hebron, Nebraska

Early life

Career

Personal life and family

See also

References