Earnings at risk (EaR) and the related cash flow at risk (CFaR) Earnings at Risk
bloomsburycollections.com are measures reflecting the potential impact of

market risk Market risk is the risk of losses in positions arising from movements in market variables like prices and volatility. There is no unique classification as each classification may refer to different aspects of market risk. Nevertheless, the m ...

on the

income statement An income statement or profit and loss accountProfessional English in Use - Finance, Cambridge University Press, p. 10 (also referred to as a ''profit and loss statement'' (P&L), ''statement of profit or loss'', ''revenue statement'', ''statement o ...

and

cash flow statement In financial accounting, a cash flow statement, also known as ''statement of cash flows'', is a financial statement that shows how changes in balance sheet accounts and income affect cash and cash equivalents, and breaks the analysis down to oper ...

respectively, and hence the risk to the institution's

return on assets The return on assets (ROA) shows the percentage of how profitable a company's assets are in generating revenue. ROA can be computed as below: :\mathrm = \frac The phrase return on average assets (ROAA) is also used, to emphasize that average as ...

and, ultimately,

return on equity The return on equity (ROE) is a measure of the profitability of a business in relation to its equity; where: : Jason Fernando (2023)"Return on Equity (ROE) Calculation and What It Means" Investopedia Thus, ROE is equal to a fiscal year's net in ...

. EaR measures the impact on net interest income due to movements in

foreign exchange The foreign exchange market (forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized or over-the-counter (OTC) market for the trading of currencies. This market determines foreign exchange rates for every currency. By trading volume, it i ...

and

interest rates An interest rate is the amount of interest due per period, as a proportion of the amount lent, deposited, or borrowed (called the principal sum). The total interest on an amount lent or borrowed depends on the principal sum, the interest rate, ...

; while CFaR measures possible shortfalls in cash flow due to these. Both are calculated under simulation as for

Value at Risk Value at risk (VaR) is a measure of the risk of loss of investment/capital. It estimates how much a set of investments might lose (with a given probability), given normal market conditions, in a set time period such as a day. VaR is typically us ...

References

Mathematical finance Financial risk modeling Market risk Monte Carlo methods in finance Capital management Financial management {{finance stub