David Orrell at Art Center Global Dialogues

David John Orrell is a

Canadian Canadians () are people identified with the country of Canada. This connection may be residential, legal, historical or cultural. For most Canadians, many (or all) of these connections exist and are collectively the source of their being ''C ...

writer and

mathematician A mathematician is someone who uses an extensive knowledge of mathematics in their work, typically to solve mathematical problems. Mathematicians are concerned with numbers, data, quantity, mathematical structure, structure, space, Mathematica ...

. He received his doctorate in

mathematics Mathematics is a field of study that discovers and organizes methods, Mathematical theory, theories and theorems that are developed and Mathematical proof, proved for the needs of empirical sciences and mathematics itself. There are many ar ...

from the

University of Oxford The University of Oxford is a collegiate university, collegiate research university in Oxford, England. There is evidence of teaching as early as 1096, making it the oldest university in the English-speaking world and the List of oldest un ...

. His work in the prediction of

complex systems A complex system is a system composed of many components that may interact with one another. Examples of complex systems are Earth's global climate, organisms, the human brain, infrastructure such as power grid, transportation or communication s ...

such as the

weather Weather is the state of the atmosphere, describing for example the degree to which it is hot or cold, wet or dry, calm or stormy, clear or cloud cover, cloudy. On Earth, most weather phenomena occur in the lowest layer of the planet's atmo ...

genetics Genetics is the study of genes, genetic variation, and heredity in organisms.Hartl D, Jones E (2005) It is an important branch in biology because heredity is vital to organisms' evolution. Gregor Mendel, a Moravian Augustinians, Augustinian ...

and the

economy An economy is an area of the Production (economics), production, Distribution (economics), distribution and trade, as well as Consumption (economics), consumption of Goods (economics), goods and Service (economics), services. In general, it is ...

has been featured in

New Scientist ''New Scientist'' is a popular science magazine covering all aspects of science and technology. Based in London, it publishes weekly English-language editions in the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia. An editorially separate organ ...

, the

Financial Times The ''Financial Times'' (''FT'') is a British daily newspaper printed in broadsheet and also published digitally that focuses on business and economic Current affairs (news format), current affairs. Based in London, the paper is owned by a Jap ...

The Economist ''The Economist'' is a British newspaper published weekly in printed magazine format and daily on Electronic publishing, digital platforms. It publishes stories on topics that include economics, business, geopolitics, technology and culture. M ...

, Adbusters,

BBC Radio BBC Radio is an operational business division and service of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) which has operated in the United Kingdom under the terms of a royal charter since 1927. The service provides national radio stations cove ...

, Russia-1, and CBC TV. He now conducts research and writes in the areas of systems biology and

economics Economics () is a behavioral science that studies the Production (economics), production, distribution (economics), distribution, and Consumption (economics), consumption of goods and services. Economics focuses on the behaviour and interac ...

, and runs a mathematical consultancy Systems Forecasting. He is the son of theatre historian and English professor John Orrell. His books have been translated into over ten languages. '' Apollo's Arrow: The Science of Prediction and the Future of Everything'' was a national bestseller and finalist for the 2007 Canadian Science Writers' Award. '' Economyths: Ten Ways Economics Gets It Wrong'' was a finalist for the 2011 National Business Book Award.

Criticism of use of mathematical models

A consistent topic in Orrell’s work is the limitations of mathematical models, and the need to acknowledge these limitations if we are to understand the causes of forecast error. He argues for example that errors in weather prediction are caused primarily by model error, rather than the butterfly effect.

Economic model An economic model is a theoretical construct representing economic processes by a set of variables and a set of logical and/or quantitative relationships between them. The economic model is a simplified, often mathematical, framework designed ...

s are seen as particularly unrealistic. In ''Truth or Beauty: Science and the Quest for Order'', he suggests that many such theories, along with areas of physics such as string theory, are motivated largely by the desire to conform with a traditional scientific

aesthetic Aesthetics (also spelled esthetics) is the branch of philosophy concerned with the nature of beauty and taste, which in a broad sense incorporates the philosophy of art.Slater, B. H.Aesthetics ''Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy,'' , acces ...

, that is currently being subverted by developments in complexity science.

Quantum theory of money and value

Orrell is considered a leading proponent of quantum finance and quantum economics. In ''The Evolution of Money'' (coauthored with journalist Roman Chlupatý) and a series of articles he proposed a quantum theory of money and value, which states that money has dualistic properties because it combines the properties of an owned and valued thing, with those of abstract number. The fact that these two sides of money are incompatible leads to its complex and often unpredictable behavior. In ''Quantum Economics: The New Science of Money'' he argued that these dualistic properties feed up to affect the economy as a whole.

Books

* * * * * * * Revised and extended edition of 2010 book. * * * * * * * * * Published in the U.S. as ''The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction''.

References

External links

David Orrell's homepage

Systems Forecasting

Video of talk on money given for Marshall McLuhan lecture, Berlin 2015

Video of talk on prediction given at TEDx Park Kultury, Moscow in 2012

ABC News - Good Morning America (excerpts from Apollo's Arrow)

* ttps://www.thetimes.com/uk/science/article/truth-or-beauty-science-and-the-quest-for-order-by-david-orrell-q0fr556vkmd Sunday Times review of Truth or Beauty*
David Orrell interview with E-International Relations
{{DEFAULTSORT:Orrell, David Canadian non-fiction writers Canadian mathematicians Systems biologists Complex systems theory Living people Year of birth missing (living people)

Criticism of use of mathematical models

Quantum theory of money and value

Books

See also

References

External links