The Cynefin framework ( ) is a

conceptual framework A conceptual framework is an analytical tool with several variations and contexts. It can be applied in different categories of work where an overall picture is needed. It is used to make conceptual distinctions and organize ideas. Strong conceptu ...

used to aid

decision-making In psychology, decision-making (also spelled decision making and decisionmaking) is regarded as the cognitive process resulting in the selection of a belief or a course of action among several possible alternative options. It could be either ra ...

. Created in 1999 by Dave Snowden when he worked for

IBM Global Services IBM Consulting, rebranded in 2021 from IBM Global Business Services, is the professional services and consulting arm of IBM. IBM Consulting provides services to companies, global government organizations, non-profits and NGOs. IBM Consulting IBM ...

, it has been described as a "

sense-making Sensemaking or sense-making is the process by which people give meaning to their collective experiences. It has been defined as "the ongoing retrospective development of plausible images that rationalize what people are doing" ( Weick, Sutcliffe, ...

device". ''Cynefin'' is a

Welsh Welsh may refer to: Related to Wales * Welsh, referring or related to Wales * Welsh language, a Brittonic Celtic language spoken in Wales * Welsh people People * Welsh (surname) * Sometimes used as a synonym for the ancient Britons (Celtic peopl ...

word for ''habitat''. Cynefin offers five decision-making contexts or "domains"—''clear'' (known as ''simple'' until 2014, then ''obvious'' until being recently renamed), ''complicated'', ''complex'', ''chaotic'', and ''confusion''—that help managers to identify how they perceive situations and make sense of their own and other people's behaviour. The framework draws on research into

systems theory Systems theory is the interdisciplinary study of systems, i.e. cohesive groups of interrelated, interdependent components that can be natural or human-made. Every system has causal boundaries, is influenced by its context, defined by its structu ...

, complexity theory,

network theory Network theory is the study of graphs as a representation of either symmetric relations or asymmetric relations between discrete objects. In computer science and network science, network theory is a part of graph theory: a network can be de ...

and

learning theories Learning theory describes how students receive, process, and retain knowledge during learning. Cognitive, emotional, and environmental influences, as well as prior experience, all play a part in how understanding, or a world view, is acquired or ...

Background

Terminology

The idea of the Cynefin framework is that it offers decision-makers a "sense of place" from which to view their perceptions. ''Cynefin'' is a Welsh word meaning ''habitat'', ''haunt'', ''acquainted'', ''familiar''. Snowden uses the term to refer to the idea that we all have connections, such as tribal, religious and geographical, of which we may not be aware. It has been compared to the te reo

Māori Māori or Maori can refer to: Relating to the Māori people * Māori people of New Zealand, or members of that group * Māori language, the language of the Māori people of New Zealand * Māori culture * Cook Islanders, the Māori people of the Co ...

word ''tūrangawaewae'', meaning a place to stand, or the "ground and place which is your heritage and that you come from".

History

Snowden, then of IBM Global Services, began work on a Cynefin model in 1999 to help manage

intellectual capital Intellectual capital is the result of mental processes that form a set of intangible objects that can be used in economic activity and bring income to its owner (organization), covering the competencies of its people ( human capital), the value rela ...

within the company.Snowden, David (1999). "Liberating Knowledge", in ''Liberating Knowledge''. CBI Business Guide. London: Caspian Publishing. He continued developing it as European director of IBM's Institute of Knowledge Management, and later as founder and director of the IBM Cynefin Centre for Organizational Complexity, established in 2002. Cynthia Kurtz, an IBM researcher, and Snowden described the framework in detail the following year in a paper, "The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world", published in ''IBM Systems Journal''. The Cynefin Centre—a network of members and partners from industry, government and academia—began operating independently of IBM in 2004. In 2007 Snowden and Mary E. Boone described the Cynefin framework in the ''

Harvard Business Review ''Harvard Business Review'' (''HBR'') is a general management magazine published by Harvard Business Publishing, a wholly owned subsidiary of Harvard University. ''HBR'' is published six times a year and is headquartered in Brighton, M ...

''. Their paper, "A Leader's Framework for Decision Making", won them an "Outstanding Practitioner-Oriented Publication in OB" award from the

Academy of Management The Academy of Management is a professional association for scholars of management and organizations that was established in 1936. It publishes several academic journals, organizes conferences, and provides others forums for management professo ...

's Organizational Behavior division.

Domains

Cynefin offers five decision-making contexts or "domains": ''clear, complicated, complex, chaotic'', and a centre of ''confusion''. The domain names have changed over the years. Kurtz and Snowden (2003) called them ''known, knowable, complex, and chaotic''. Snowden and Boone (2007) changed ''known'' and ''knowable'' to ''simple'' and ''complicated''. From 2014 Snowden used ''obvious'' in place of ''simple'', and is now using the term ''clear'' The domains offer a "sense of place" from which to analyse behaviour and make decisions.Browning, Larry; Latoza, Roderick (31 December 2005)
"The use of narrative to understand and respond to complexity: A comparative analysis of the Cynefin and Weickian models"
''Emergence: Complexity and Organization'', 7(3–4): 32–39 (last modified: 23 November 2016). The domains on the right, ''clear'' and ''complicated'', are "ordered": cause and effect are known or can be discovered. The domains on the left, ''complex'' and ''chaotic'', are "unordered": cause and effect can be deduced only with hindsight or not at all.

Clear

The ''clear'' domain represents the "known knowns". This means that there are rules in place (or

best practice A best practice is a method or technique that has been generally accepted as superior to other known alternatives because it often produces results that are superior to those achieved by other means or because it has become a standard way of doing ...

), the situation is stable, and the relationship between cause and effect is clear: if you do X, expect Y. The advice in such a situation is to "sense–categorize–respond": establish the facts ("sense"), categorize, then respond by following the rule or applying best practice. Snowden and Boone (2007) offer the example of loan-payment processing. An employee identifies the problem (for example, a borrower has paid less than required), categorizes it (reviews the loan documents), and responds (follows the terms of the loan). According to Thomas A. Stewart,

This is the domain of legal structures, standard operating procedures, practices that are proven to work. Never draw to an inside straight. Never lend to a client whose monthly payments exceed 35 percent of gross income. Never end the meeting without asking for the sale. Here, decision-making lies squarely in the realm of reason: Find the proper rule and apply it.

Snowden and Boone write that managers should beware of forcing situations into this domain by oversimplifying, by "entrained thinking" (being blind to new ways of thinking), or by becoming complacent. When success breeds complacency ("best practice is, by definition, past practice"), there can be a catastrophic clockwise shift into the chaotic domain. They recommend that leaders provide a communication channel, if necessary an anonymous one, so that dissenters (for example, within a workforce) can warn about complacency.

Complicated

The ''complicated'' domain consists of the "known unknowns". The relationship between cause and effect requires analysis or expertise; there are a range of right answers. The framework recommends "sense–analyze–respond": assess the facts, analyze, and apply the appropriate good operating practice. According to Stewart: "Here it is possible to work rationally toward a decision, but doing so requires refined judgment and expertise. ... This is the province of engineers, surgeons, intelligence analysts, lawyers, and other experts. Artificial intelligence copes well here: Deep Blue plays chess as if it were a complicated problem, looking at every possible sequence of moves."

Complex

The ''complex'' domain represents the "unknown unknowns". Cause and effect can only be deduced in retrospect, and there are no right answers. "Instructive patterns ... can emerge," write Snowden and Boone, "if the leader conducts experiments that are safe to fail." Cynefin calls this process "probe–sense–respond". Hard insurance cases are one example. "Hard cases ... need human underwriters," Stewart writes, "and the best all do the same thing: Dump the file and spread out the contents." Stewart identifies battlefields, markets, ecosystems and corporate cultures as complex systems that are "impervious to a reductionist, take-it-apart-and-see-how-it-works approach, because your very actions change the situation in unpredictable ways."

Chaotic

In the ''chaotic'' domain, cause and effect are unclear. Events in this domain are "too confusing to wait for a knowledge-based response", writes Patrick Lambe. "Action—''any'' action—is the first and only way to respond appropriately." In this context, managers "act–sense–respond": ''act'' to establish order; ''sense'' where stability lies; ''respond'' to turn the chaotic into the complex. Snowden and Boone write:

In the chaotic domain, a leader’s immediate job is not to discover patterns but to staunch the bleeding. A leader must first act to establish order, then sense where stability is present and from where it is absent, and then respond by working to transform the situation from chaos to complexity, where the identification of emerging patterns can both help prevent future crises and discern new opportunities. Communication of the most direct top-down or broadcast kind is imperative; there’s simply no time to ask for input.

The

September 11 attacks The September 11 attacks, commonly known as 9/11, were four coordinated suicide terrorist attacks carried out by al-Qaeda against the United States on Tuesday, September 11, 2001. That morning, nineteen terrorists hijacked four commer ...

were an example of the ''chaotic'' category. Stewart offers others: "the firefighter whose gut makes him turn left or the trader who instinctively sells when the news about the stock seems too good to be true." One crisis executive said of the collapse of Enron: "People were afraid. ... Decision-making was paralyzed. ... You've got to be quick and decisive—make little steps you know will succeed, so you can begin to tell a story that makes sense." Snowden and Boone give the example of the 1993

Brown's Chicken massacre The Brown's Chicken Massacre was a mass murder that occurred on January 8, 1993 in Palatine, Illinois, when two robbers killed seven employees at a Brown's Chicken fast-food restaurant. The case remained unsolved for nearly nine years, until one ...

Palatine A palatine or palatinus (in Latin; plural ''palatini''; cf. derivative spellings below) is a high-level official attached to imperial or royal courts in Europe since Roman times.

, Illinois—when robbers murdered seven employees in Brown's Chicken and Pasta restaurant—as a situation in which local police faced all the domains. Deputy Police Chief Walt Gasior had to act immediately to stem the early panic (''chaotic''), while keeping the department running (''simple''), calling in experts (''complicated''), and maintaining community confidence in the following weeks (''complex'').

Confusion

The dark ''confusion'' domain in the centre represents situations where there is no clarity about which of the other domains apply (this domain has also been known as ''disordered'' in earlier versions of the. framework). By definition it is hard to see when this domain applies. "Here, multiple perspectives jostle for prominence, factional leaders argue with one another, and cacophony rules", write Snowden and Boone. "The way out of this realm is to break down the situation into constituent parts and assign each to one of the other four realms. Leaders can then make decisions and intervene in contextually appropriate ways."

Moving through domains

As knowledge increases, there is a "clockwise drift" from ''chaotic'' through ''complex'' and ''complicated'' to ''simple''. Similarly, a "buildup of biases", complacency or lack of maintenance can cause a "catastrophic failure": a clockwise movement from ''simple'' to ''chaotic'', represented by the "fold" between those domains. There can be counter-clockwise movement as people die and knowledge is forgotten, or as new generations question the rules; and a counter-clockwise push from ''chaotic'' to ''simple'' can occur when a lack of order causes rules to be imposed suddenly.

Applications and reception

Cynefin was used by its IBM developers in policy-making, product development, market creation,

supply chain management In commerce, supply chain management (SCM) is the management of the flow of goods and services including all processes that transform raw materials into final products between businesses and locations. This can include the movement and st ...

branding Branding may refer to: Physical markings * Making a mark, typically by charring: ** Wood branding, permanently marking, by way of heat, typically of wood (also applied to plastic, cork, leather, etc.) ** Livestock branding, the marking of animals ...

and

customer relations Customer relationship management (CRM) is a process in which a business or other organization administers its interactions with customers, typically using data analysis to study large amounts of information. CRM systems compile data from a ra ...

. Later uses include analysing the impact of religion on policymaking within the George W. Bush administration,

emergency management Emergency management or disaster management is the managerial function charged with creating the framework within which communities reduce vulnerability to hazards and cope with disasters. Emergency management, despite its name, does not actual ...

network science Network science is an academic field which studies complex networks such as telecommunication networks, computer networks, biological networks, cognitive and semantic networks, and social networks, considering distinct elements or actors rep ...

and the military, the management of food-chain risks,

homeland security Homeland security is an American national security term for "the national effort to ensure a homeland that is safe, secure, and resilient against terrorism and other hazards where American interests, aspirations, and ways of life can thrive" t ...

in the United States,

agile software development In software development, agile (sometimes written Agile) practices include requirements discovery and solutions improvement through the collaborative effort of self-organizing and cross-functional teams with their customer(s)/ end user(s), ...

, and policing the

Occupy Movement The Occupy movement was an international populist socio-political movement that expressed opposition to social and economic inequality and to the perceived lack of "real democracy" around the world. It aimed primarily to advance social and econo ...

in the United States.Geron, Stephen Max (March 2014)
"21st Century strategies for policing protest"
(pdf), Naval Postgraduate School. It has also been used in health-care research, including to examine the complexity of care in the British

National Health Service The National Health Service (NHS) is the umbrella term for the publicly funded healthcare systems of the United Kingdom (UK). Since 1948, they have been funded out of general taxation. There are three systems which are referred to using the " ...

, the nature of knowledge in health care, and the fight against HIV/AIDs in South Africa. In 2017 the RAND Corporation used the Cynefin framework in a discussion of theories and models of decision making. The European Commission has published a field guide to use Cynefin as a "guide to navigate crisis". Criticism of Cynefin includes that the framework is difficult and confusing, needs a more rigorous foundation, and covers too limited a selection of possible contexts. Another criticism is that terms such as ''known, knowable, sense,'' and ''categorize'' are ambiguous. Prof Simon French recognizes "the value of the Cynefin framework in categorising decision contexts and identifying how to address many uncertainties in an analysis" and as such believes it builds on seminal works such as

Russell L. Ackoff Russell Lincoln Ackoff (February 12, 1919 – October 29, 2009) was an American organizational theorist, consultant, and Anheuser-Busch Professor Emeritus of Management Science at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Ackoff was a pi ...

's ''Scientific Method: optimizing applied research decisions'' (1962), C. West Churchman's ''Inquiring Systems'' (1967), Rittel and Webber's ''Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning'' (1973), Douglas John White's ''Decision Methodology'' (1975),

John Tukey John Wilder Tukey (; June 16, 1915 – July 26, 2000) was an American mathematician and statistician, best known for the development of the fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm and box plot. The Tukey range test, the Tukey lambda distributi ...

's ''

Exploratory data analysis In statistics, exploratory data analysis (EDA) is an approach of analyzing data sets to summarize their main characteristics, often using statistical graphics and other data visualization methods. A statistical model can be used or not, but pri ...

'' (1977), Mike Pidd's ''Tools for Thinking: Modelling in Management Science'' (1996), and Ritchey's ''General Morphological Analysis'' (1998).

Cynefin and theory of constraints

Steve Holt compares Cynefin to the theory of constraints. The theory of constraints argues that most systems outcomes are limited by certain bottlenecks (''constraints'') and improvements away from these constraints tend to be counterproductive because they just place more strain on a constraint. Holt places the theory of constraints within the Cynefin framing by arguing the theory of constraints moves from complex situations to complicated ones by using

abductive reasoning Abductive reasoning (also called abduction,For example: abductive inference, or retroduction) is a form of logical inference formulated and advanced by American philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce beginning in the last third of the 19th century ...

and intuition then logic to creating an understanding, before creating a probe to test understanding. Cynefin defines several types of constraints. ''Fixed constraints'' stipulate that actions must be done in a certain way in a certain order and apply in the clear domain, ''governing constraints'' are looser and act more like rules or policies applying in the complicated domain, ''enabling constraints'' that operate in the complex domain are constraints that allow a system to function but do not control the entire process.Holt argues that constraints in the theory of constraints correspond the Cynefin's fixed and governing constraints. Holt argues that ''injections'' in the theory of constraints correspond to enabling constraints.

Critiques

Firestone and McElroy argue that Cynefin is a model of sensemaking rather than a full model of

knowledge management Knowledge management (KM) is the collection of methods relating to creating, sharing, using and managing the knowledge and information of an organization. It refers to a multidisciplinary approach to achieve organisational objectives by making ...

and processing.

Notes

References

{{reflist, 25em IBM Knowledge management Strategy consulting