Conflict Escalation
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Conflict escalation is the process by which conflicts grow in severity or scale over time. That may refer to conflicts between individuals or groups in interpersonal relationships, or it may refer to the escalation of hostilities in a political or military context. In
systems theory Systems theory is the Transdisciplinarity, transdisciplinary study of systems, i.e. cohesive groups of interrelated, interdependent components that can be natural or artificial. Every system has causal boundaries, is influenced by its context, de ...
, the process of conflict escalation is modeled by
positive feedback Positive feedback (exacerbating feedback, self-reinforcing feedback) is a process that occurs in a feedback loop where the outcome of a process reinforces the inciting process to build momentum. As such, these forces can exacerbate the effects ...
. Conflict escalation can be modeled with
game theory Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions. It has applications in many fields of social science, and is used extensively in economics, logic, systems science and computer science. Initially, game theory addressed ...
. In contrast,
de-escalation De-escalation refers to the methods and actions taken to decrease the severity of a conflict, whether of physical, verbal or another nature. It is the opposite of escalation. De-escalation may also refer to approaches in conflict resolution, b ...
are approaches which lead to a decrease or end of a conflict. While the word ''escalation'' was used as early as in 1938, it was popularized during the
Cold War The Cold War was a period of global Geopolitics, geopolitical rivalry between the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (USSR) and their respective allies, the capitalist Western Bloc and communist Eastern Bloc, which lasted from 1947 unt ...
by two important books: ''On Escalation'' (
Herman Kahn Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was an American physicist and a founding member of the Hudson Institute, regarded as one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally came to prominence ...
, 1965) and ''Escalation and the Nuclear Option'' ( Bernard Brodie, 1966). In those contexts, it especially referred to war between two major states with
weapons of mass destruction A weapon of mass destruction (WMD) is a Biological agent, biological, chemical weapon, chemical, Radiological weapon, radiological, nuclear weapon, nuclear, or any other weapon that can kill or significantly harm many people or cause great dam ...
during the Cold War. Conflict escalation has a tactical role in military conflict and is often formalized with explicit rules of engagement. Highly-successful
military tactics Military tactics encompasses the art of organizing and employing fighting forces on or near the battlefield. They involve the application of four battlefield functions which are closely related – kinetic or firepower, Mobility (military), mobil ...
exploit a particular form of conflict escalation such as by controlling an opponent's reaction time, which allows the tactician to pursue or trap his opponent. Both
Napoleon Bonaparte Napoleon Bonaparte (born Napoleone di Buonaparte; 15 August 1769 – 5 May 1821), later known by his regnal name Napoleon I, was a French general and statesman who rose to prominence during the French Revolution and led Military career ...
and
Heinz Guderian Heinz Wilhelm Guderian (; 17 June 1888 – 14 May 1954) was a German general during World War II who later became a successful memoirist. A pioneer and advocate of the "blitzkrieg" approach, he played a central role in the development of ...
advocated that approach.
Sun Tzu Sun Tzu (; zh, t=孫子, s=孙子, first= t, p=Sūnzǐ) may have been a Chinese General, military general, strategist, philosopher, and writer who lived during the Eastern Zhou period (771–256 BC). Sun Tzu is traditionally credited as the au ...
elaborated it in a more abstract form and maintained that
military strategy Military strategy is a set of ideas implemented by military organizations to pursue desired Strategic goal (military), strategic goals. Derived from the Greek language, Greek word ''strategos'', the term strategy, when first used during the 18th ...
was about minimizing escalation and
diplomacy Diplomacy is the communication by representatives of State (polity), state, International organization, intergovernmental, or Non-governmental organization, non-governmental institutions intended to influence events in the international syste ...
was about eliminating it.


Continuum of force

The
United States Marine Corps The United States Marine Corps (USMC), also referred to as the United States Marines or simply the Marines, is the maritime land force service branch of the United States Department of Defense. It is responsible for conducting expeditionar ...
' "Continuum of Force" (found in MCRP 3-02B) documents the stages of conflict escalation in combat for a typical subject:


Level 1: Compliant (cooperative)

The subject responds to and obeys verbal commands. He refrains from close combat.


Level 2: Resistant (passive)

The subject resists verbal commands but complies to commands immediately upon contact controls. He refrains from close combat.


Level 3: Resistant (active)

Initially, the subject physically resists commands, but he can be made to comply by compliance techniques, including come-along holds, soft-handed stunning blows, and techniques inducing pain by joint manipulation and pressure points.


Level 4: Assaultive (bodily harm)

The unarmed subject physically attacks his opponent. He can be controlled by certain defensive tactics, including blocks, strikes, kicks, enhanced
pain compliance Pain compliance is the use of painful stimulus to control or direct a person. The purpose of pain compliance is to direct the actions of the subject, and to this end, the pain is lessened or removed when compliance is achieved. This provides incen ...
procedures, impact weapon blocks, and blows.


Level 5: Assaultive (lethal force)

The subject has a weapon and will likely kill or injure someone unless he is controlled. That is possible only by lethal force, which possibly requires firearms or weapons. This could also include the subject physically overpowering someone and choking them out, which will cause injury or death if sustained for a long period of time.


International relations

Conflict escalation forecasts have been increasing in reliability.
Asymmetric warfare Asymmetric warfare (or asymmetric engagement) is a type of war between belligerents whose relative military power, strategy or tactics differ significantly. This type of warfare often, but not necessarily, involves insurgents, terrorist grou ...
can in some situations lead to persistent conflict escalation. A ''Fait accompli'' can result in rewards for short periods of conflict escalation.
Appeasement Appeasement, in an International relations, international context, is a diplomacy, diplomatic negotiation policy of making political, material, or territorial concessions to an aggressive power (international relations), power with intention t ...
can in some situations lead to conflict escalation. Overconfidence in escalation control can potentially lead to further conflict escalation including nuclear escalation.


See also

* Conflict continuum * Friedrich Glasl's model of conflict escalation * Escalation of commitment * Stability–instability paradox


References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Conflict escalation Conflict (process) Strategy (game theory)