__NOTOC__ The Climate Forecast System or coupled forecast system (both names abbreviated CFS) is a medium to long range

numerical weather prediction Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in th ...

and a

climate model Numerical climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the important drivers of climate, including atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the ...

run by the

National Centers for Environmental Prediction The United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) delivers national and global weather, water, climate and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings and analyses to its Partners and External User Communities. These pr ...

(NCEP) to bridge weather and climate timescales.Climate Forecast System Introduction
/ref> Version 2 became operational as CFSv2 in 2011.

Overview

CFSv2 is run once daily at NCEP, at multiple time scales. The medium-range model forecasts in one-week intervals out to four weeks, while the longer-range scale forecasts on three-month

moving average In statistics, a moving average (rolling average or running average) is a calculation to analyze data points by creating a series of averages of different subsets of the full data set. It is also called a moving mean (MM) or rolling mean and is ...

s out some nine months. The shorter scale has some overlap with the

Global Forecast System The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS). Operation The mathematical model is run ...

NAVGEM The Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) is a global numerical weather prediction computer simulation run by the United States Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. This mathematical model is run four times a day and pro ...

and FIM models (among several other medium-range models) that the US government runs for operational forecast purposes. "Coupled" refers to the fact that the model couples

atmospheric An atmosphere () is a layer of gas or layers of gases that envelop a planet, and is held in place by the gravity of the planetary body. A planet retains an atmosphere when the gravity is great and the temperature of the atmosphere is low. A s ...

to oceanic modeling. Its forecasts are derived from a 16-member ensemble, with each member initialized on a lead of several days of conditions. The CFSv2 offers output that can be masked to suppress forecasts made with insufficient skill. Among the variables made available to the public include precipitation and surface temperature (both of which are available both on a global spatial scale and a continental one), winds at 200 and 850 hectopascals (hPa), and heights at 500 hPa (all of which are available only at the global or hemispheric scale). Output is rendered as deviation from normal.

Overview

See also

References

External links