Libya is highly vulnerable to the effects of

climate change Present-day climate change includes both global warming—the ongoing increase in Global surface temperature, global average temperature—and its wider effects on Earth's climate system. Climate variability and change, Climate change in ...

and underprepared to deal with them. Situated along the coast of the

Mediterranean Sea The Mediterranean Sea ( ) is a sea connected to the Atlantic Ocean, surrounded by the Mediterranean basin and almost completely enclosed by land: on the east by the Levant in West Asia, on the north by Anatolia in West Asia and Southern Eur ...

and

North Africa North Africa (sometimes Northern Africa) is a region encompassing the northern portion of the African continent. There is no singularly accepted scope for the region. However, it is sometimes defined as stretching from the Atlantic shores of t ...

, Libya faces accelerated warming when compared with global average temperatures. Temperatures in Libya have already risen above the global average of 1.1 degrees Celsius and are estimated to reach approximately 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. There have been notable impacts on both the natural environment and society due to climate change. The effects of climate change, such as

desertification Desertification is a type of gradual land degradation of Soil fertility, fertile land into arid desert due to a combination of natural processes and human activities. The immediate cause of desertification is the loss of most vegetation. This i ...

, sea level rise, flooding, and irregular weather patterns are already noticeable in Libya and are expected to increase. These pose significant threats to Libya's food and water security and economic development and sustainability. Libya was late to sign the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the UN process for negotiating an agreement to limit dangerous climate change. It is an international treaty among countries to combat "dangerous human interference with th ...

(UNFCCC) in 2016 and ratify the

Paris Climate Agreement The Paris Agreement (also called the Paris Accords or Paris Climate Accords) is an international treaty on climate change that was signed in 2016. The treaty covers climate change mitigation, adaptation, and finance. The Paris Agreement was ...

in 2021. However, as of 2024, Libya has not submitted its

Nationally Determined Contributions The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are commitments that countries make to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as part of climate change mitigation. These commitments include the necessary policies and measures for achieving the glob ...

(NDCs) and has made little progress toward the development of

adaptation In biology, adaptation has three related meanings. Firstly, it is the dynamic evolutionary process of natural selection that fits organisms to their environment, enhancing their evolutionary fitness. Secondly, it is a state reached by the p ...

plans.

Greenhouse gas emissions

In 2023 Libya emitted around 23.77 million tonnes of greenhouse gases, around 0.17% of the world's total emissions. However, the nation ranked as the 21st highest emitter per capita globally and the highest in Africa, at just over 13 tonnes per person. As of 2021, Libya is the highest per capita carbon emitter in Africa with an estimated annual rate of 8.5 tons of CO2 per person. On the global scale, however, Libya represents a much smaller percentage of carbon emissions. In 2022, Libya emitted 44.682 Mt of CO2, equating to only 0.1% of global CO2 emissions. In terms of methane, Libya is considered one of the highest global polluters in the context of its barrel-to-flare ratio. The burning of fossil fuels is the biggest source of these emissions for Libya, specifically oil. The sectors of Libya's economy that produce the largest greenhouse gas emissions are the electricity sector, followed by the transportation sector. In 2021, Libya was the seventh-largest producer of crude oil out of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Further, 3% of the world's oil reserves and 39% of Africa's oil reserves are in Libya. The economy of Libya, by way of oil production, is currently dependent on activities that emit greenhouse gasses.

Impacts on the natural environment

Temperature and weather changes

Show Your Stripes change in temperature graphic for All of Libya with bars with labels

The increase in regional temperatures in tandem with other

anthropocentric Anthropocentrism ( ) is the belief that human beings are the central or most important entity on the planet. The term can be used interchangeably with humanocentrism, and some refer to the concept as human supremacy or human exceptionalism. From a ...

factors of

urbanization Urbanization (or urbanisation in British English) is the population shift from Rural area, rural to urban areas, the corresponding decrease in the proportion of people living in rural areas, and the ways in which societies adapt to this change. ...

, migration, and resource exploitation is reducing the availability of arable land and contributing to a disproportionate increase in desert ecosystems over other vegetation and ecosystems. Arable land was already scarce and at its peak in 1996, comprising only 1.2 percent of the country's territory. Since then it has shrunk to about 1 percent of the territory.

Water resources

Libya is incredibly water scarce and vulnerable to high water insecurity, largely due to its lack of rivers and other bodies of freshwater. Globally, Libya is the sixth water stressed nation. Libya receives about 56 millimeters of long-term average precipitation annually, which leads to total reliance on non-renewable

aquifer An aquifer is an underground layer of water-bearing material, consisting of permeability (Earth sciences), permeable or fractured rock, or of unconsolidated materials (gravel, sand, or silt). Aquifers vary greatly in their characteristics. The s ...

s and

desalination Desalination is a process that removes mineral components from saline water. More generally, desalination is the removal of salts and minerals from a substance. One example is Soil salinity control, soil desalination. This is important for agric ...

. Indeed, eighty percent of the country's potable water supply is drawn from non-replenishable fossil aquifers through a network of pipes known as the

Great Man-Made River The Great Man-Made River (GMMR, , ) is a network of pipes that supplies fresh water obtained from the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System fossil aquifer across Libya. It is the world's largest irrigation project. The project utilizes a pipeline syst ...

(GMMR). Libya has a high rate of water consumption, especially in agriculture. Its agriculture water consumption is 4th largest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The agricultural sector receives 83.1% of all freshwater resources, largely for the purposes of livestock and irrigation. Alongside the limited availability of water and the frequency of droughts in Libya, these challenges make water scarcity a prevalent issue. Libya is supplied by groundwater aquifers, including some that reside along its coastline on the Mediterranean Sea. However, deteriorating water quality puts additional stress on water scarcity challenges. Due to sea level rise and flooding events, freshwater sources in Libya experience

saltwater intrusion Saltwater intrusion is the movement of saline water into freshwater aquifers, which can lead to groundwater quality degradation, including drinking water sources, and other consequences. Saltwater intrusion can naturally occur in coastal aquifers, ...

. Furthermore, pollution from fertilizers and sewage mismanagement have negatively affected the quality of water in some aquifers. The Great Man-Made River (GMMR) is one such aquifer example and provides Libya with 60% of its water resources. It is the largest underground irrigation project in the world. However, the project's construction allows it to tap into and exploit non-renewable aquifers, which cannot be recharged by precipitation events. Therefore, the long-term stability of this project as a water resource is variable since it depends upon a decreasing reserve.

Impacts on people

Sea level rise

The population of Libya is most dense on its coast, with 90% of individuals living along the Mediterranean Sea. Hurricanes, in tandem with increased sea level elevation, have induced flooding, especially in port cities such as Derna. There are a multitude of effects from this, including infrastructural impacts (damage to buildings, bridges, and wastewater systems), erosion of the coastline, and saltwater intrusion (reducing the viability of fertile soil for agriculture).

Temperature and weather changes

Libya has been experiencing increasing temperatures, with extreme heat in the summer of 2022 hitting above 50 degrees Celsius. 90% of Libya's population lives in urban centers. City populations are expected to be greatly impacted by climate change as rising regions temperatures pair with the urban heat island effect, thus affecting the majority of Libya's urban population. Rural communities will also be impacted by increasing temperatures, the effects of which may be seen in the agricultural sector. Libya already has low agricultural yields and imports 75% of food required to support the population. Agricultural productivity is reducing due to changing weather patterns and increased drought. Agricultural yield in Libya is expected to decline 30% by 2060 with an approximate temperature rise of 1.5-2 degrees Celsius. This will affect the food security and the economic viability of agriculture in rural communities.

Health

In 2023,

Storm Daniel Storm Daniel, also known as Cyclone Daniel, was a catastrophic tropical cyclone that became the deadliest Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone in recorded history, as well as one of the costliest tropical cyclones on record outside of the North ...

caused severe flooding in multiple major cities in Libya. The flooding led to the deaths of 4,352 individuals, with over 8,000 people still unaccounted for according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) office of the UN.World Bank, 2023. Libya Storm and Flooding 2023. Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment. Washington, DC: World Bank. In the aftermath of devastating floods in September 2023, officials on a UN support mission in the region reported water contamination and poor sanitation standards.Mavroulis, Spyridon & Mavrouli, Maria & Lekkas, Efthymis & Tsakris, Athanasios. (2024). Impact of the September 2023 Storm Daniel and Subsequent Flooding in Thessaly (Greece) on the Natural and Built Environment and on Infectious Disease Emergence. Environments. 11. 163. 10.3390/environments11080163. The lack of clean water following the floods led to an outbreak of illness with 150 people suffering from diarrhea after the affected individuals drank the contaminated water. Mental health impacts also result from climate change related events, known as eco-anxiety. A study investigating the influence of climate-change on mental health in Libyan Arab populations discovered that for individuals who have experienced the effects of a natural disaster there is the possibility for direct mental health repercussions such as depression and feelings of helplessness, increased anxiety, acute emotional distress and sleep disruption. Findings from the study also found that females and younger individuals displayed high levels of anxiety than males and older demographics.

Effects on migration

Both internal migration and interregional migration occur in Libya. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for migrant populations, influencing both internal displacement and the dynamics of migration to and through the country. As of 2023, there is a significant presence of approximately 704,369 migrants from various nations. Most migrants entering Libya come from Sub-Saharan and North Africa. Drivers of migration to Libya include the search for economic opportunities, environmental degradation in their countries of origin, and conflict or violence.McFee, Erin & Eljadid, Ali & Masako, Eued & Waqas, Ahmed & tupozova, Stacy & Mateo, Daniel & Aaskter, Emma. (2024). Migration, environment and Climate Change in-Libya 2024-issued by IOM-MENA. International organization of migration. UN.. 10.13140/RG.2.2.30716.14725. Migrant populations within Libya are particularly vulnerable to climatic events and their aftermath, or climatic shocks. Those most affected include individuals fleeing conflict and war, who may find themselves facing additional challenges due to environmental instability. Many migrants also use Libya as a transit point to Europe, with a notable increase in the number of migrants attempting to cross to Italy and Malta in 2023. The distribution of migrants within Libya is shaped by both economic and climatic factors. Arid desert climates deter populations from settling in southern Libya, prompting many to seek opportunities in urban and coastal areas, which exacerbates population concentration in cities and increases the threat of sea-level rise on migrant livelihood. Internal migration and displacement are also prevalent due to slow-onset climate processes. Rising temperatures, drought, flooding, and water salinization have contributed to internal displacement, particularly when combined with mismanaged water resources. The degradation of infrastructure and reduced agricultural capabilities have led to increased urbanization and the displacement of rural populations.

Mitigation

Efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change in Libya have been limited. There is a lack of updated and well implemented climate legislation. The last law passed in Libya to address environmental degradation and vulnerability was in 2003. Government corruption and poor resource management, specifically over water and energy, has contributed to the lack of climate mitigation in Libya. Though national efforts towards climate change mitigation are ineffective and insufficient, there are strides being made on community and international levels.

Adaptation

Climate change adaptation has been slow in Libya. Since the implementation of the Environment Improvement Law of 2003, there has been a weak enforcement of environmental policy.Eljadid, Ali Geath, and Erin Mcfee. “Desk Review: Country Report on Migration Environment and Climate Change in Libya.” ''International Organization for Migration'', IOM, 2023, environmentalmigration.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1411/files/documents/2024-03/Libya-desk-review_final29.pdf. International efforts have been made to push Libya in the direction of implementing more adaptive strategies. In 2023, Libya implemented the Law on the Regulation of Radioactive and Nuclear Activities and their control. However, without the implementation of NDC's per the ratification of the Paris Agreement, Libya is still behind many nations in their adaptive climate policy.

Society and culture

Activism

Prior to 2011 there were governmental restrictions on civic participation in politics and activism and existing NGOs were closely supervised to prevent such participation.Yousef, Lubna, and Will Todman. “Libya's Civil Society Crackdown Exacerbates Its Climate Woes.” ''CSIS'', Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 May 2023, www.csis.org/analysis/libyas-civil-society-crackdown-exacerbates-its-climate-woes. In 2011, a new Libyan constitution and a change in government, allowed for activism and freedom of expression with more limits on government oversight. These social changes catalyzed the formation of over 6,000 civil society organizations addressing a wide range of humanitarian and environmental issues. However, in March 2023, under the administration of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, NGO's formed after 2011 began having their licenses stripped due to fear of impacts on an upcoming election. The social mobility created by NGOs threatens the conservative Libyan government and society. Delegitimizing NGOs in Libya threatens civil engagement and activism surrounding climate change, giving rise to local and international distress over the crackdown. The effects of natural disasters have also driven some forms of recent protest. Following catastrophic flooding in Derna, Libya in September 2023, protestors took to the streets to call for accountability from the government for mismanaged infrastructure and climate mis-governance, which led to and exacerbated the flooding. Derna, a culturally rich city, sometimes referred to as “the city of poets,” also saw protest and activism through poetry written during and after the floods. The presence of social media has inspired social mobility surrounding climate activism and has given a platform for individuals to express ideas about political and social issues.

International cooperation

Due to high vulnerability risk factors, there is significant collected data through international organizations. Cooperative international efforts have been made to include Libya in global climate discussions and solutions, however there has been limited progress and commitment made by the Libyan government to commit to international climate policy and protocol. The Libyan government has previously stated the importance of environmental conservation and climate change goals, however Libya remains the only signatory party of the Paris Agreement with no stated climate strategy. International organizations and entities provide significant support towards climate change related efforts in Libya. For example, the UNDP works with the government and public organizations to offer support in areas such as natural resource preservation and energy transition with missions such as the “Support to Energy Transition and Climate Mitigation”. Additionally other international actors such as the German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ) have invested in projects to advance sustainable energy solutions and climate goals. One project currently ongoing with GIZ in Libya is called “Sustainable Energy and Climate Change Adaptation for Resilience” (SECCAR), which is supported by UN and German government funding. A regional project concept note was submitted on ‘Cross border programme to enhance resilience of oases ecosystems and livelihoods in the North African region’ by Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia - to Green Climate Fund (GCF) in November 2019. Traditional oases in North Africa represent unique forms of adaptation to extreme environmental conditions and provide multiple ecosystem services.Santoro, A. (2023). Traditional oases in Northern Africa as multifunctional agroforestry systems: a systematic literature review of the provided Ecosystem Services and of the main vulnerabilities. ''Agroforestry Systems'', ''97''(1), 81-96.

References

{{Climate change regions, state=expanded Wikipedia Student Program

Libya Libya, officially the State of Libya, is a country in the Maghreb region of North Africa. It borders the Mediterranean Sea to the north, Egypt to Egypt–Libya border, the east, Sudan to Libya–Sudan border, the southeast, Chad to Chad–L ...

Environment of Libya