Andrey Vitalievich Korotayev (russian: link=yes, Андре́й Вита́льевич Корота́ев; born 17 February 1961) is a Russian
anthropologist
An anthropologist is a person engaged in the practice of anthropology. Anthropology is the study of aspects of humans within past and present societies. Social anthropology, cultural anthropology and philosophical anthropology study the norms and v ...
,
economic historian,
comparative political scientist,
demographer
Demography () is the statistical study of populations, especially human beings.
Demographic analysis examines and measures the dimensions and dynamics of populations; it can cover whole societies or groups defined by criteria such as ed ...
and
sociologist, with major contributions to
world-systems theory,
cross-cultural studies
Cross-cultural studies, sometimes called holocultural studies or comparative studies, is a specialization in anthropology and sister sciences such as sociology, psychology, economics, political science that uses field data from many societies th ...
,
Near Eastern history,
Big History
Big History is an academic discipline which examines history from the Big Bang to the present. Big History resists specialization, and searches for universal patterns or trends. It examines long time frames using a multidisciplinary approach ...
, and
mathematical modelling
A mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed mathematical modeling. Mathematical models are used in the natural sciences (such as physi ...
of social and
economic macrodynamics.
He is currently the Head of the Laboratory for Monitoring of the Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization at the
HSE University in Moscow,
[http://www.hse.ru/org/hse/cfi/lab_mr/staff] and a Senior Research Professor at the Center for Big History and System Forecasting of the
Institute of Oriental Studies as well as in the Institute for African Studies of the
Russian Academy of Sciences
The Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS; russian: Росси́йская акаде́мия нау́к (РАН) ''Rossíyskaya akadémiya naúk'') consists of the national academy of Russia; a network of scientific research institutes from across ...
.
In addition, he is a senior research professor of the International Laboratory on Political Demography and Social Macrodynamics (PDSM) of the
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, as well as a full professor of the Faculty of Global Studies of the
Moscow State University.
He is co-editor of the journals ''
Social Evolution & History
''Social Evolution & History'' is a peer-reviewed academic journal focused on the development of human societies in the past, present, and future. In addition to original research articles, ''Social Evolution & History'' includes critical notes a ...
'' and ''Journal of Globalization Studies'', as well as ''History & Mathematics''
yearbook
Together with
Askar Akayev
Askar Akayevich Akayev ( ky, Аскар Акаевич (Акай уулу) Акаев, translit=Askar Akayevich (Akay Uulu) Akayev ; ; born 10 November 1944) is a Kyrgyz politician who served as President of Kyrgyzstan from 1990 until being ov ...
and George Malinetsky he was in 2008-2018 a coordinator of the Russian Academy of Sciences Program "System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of World Dynamics".
Education and career
Born in Moscow, Andrey Korotayev attended
Moscow State University, where he received an
MA in 1984. He earned a PhD in 1993 from
Manchester University
, mottoeng = Knowledge, Wisdom, Humanity
, established = 2004 – University of Manchester Predecessor institutions: 1956 – UMIST (as university college; university 1994) 1904 – Victoria University of Manchester 1880 – Victoria Unive ...
, and in 1998 a
Doctor of Sciences
Doctor of Sciences ( rus, доктор наук, p=ˈdoktər nɐˈuk, abbreviated д-р наук or д. н.; uk, доктор наук; bg, доктор на науките; be, доктар навук) is a higher doctoral degree in the Russi ...
degree from the
Russian Academy of Sciences
The Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS; russian: Росси́йская акаде́мия нау́к (РАН) ''Rossíyskaya akadémiya naúk'') consists of the national academy of Russia; a network of scientific research institutes from across ...
.
Since 2000, he has been Professor and Director of the Anthropology of the East Center at the
Russian State University for the Humanities, Moscow, and Senior Research Professor in the
Oriental Institute and Institute for African Studies at the
Russian Academy of Sciences
The Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS; russian: Росси́йская акаде́мия нау́к (РАН) ''Rossíyskaya akadémiya naúk'') consists of the national academy of Russia; a network of scientific research institutes from across ...
. In 2001–2003, he also directed the "Anthropology of the East" Program at the
in Moscow and is now the Head of the Laboratory of Monitoring of the Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks at this university.
In 2003–2004, he was a visiting member at the
Institute for Advanced Study in
Princeton, NJ
Princeton is a municipality with a borough form of government in Mercer County, in the U.S. state of New Jersey. It was established on January 1, 2013, through the consolidation of the Borough of Princeton and Princeton Township, both of wh ...
.
Korotayev is a laureate of the Russian Science Support Foundation in "The Best Economists of the
Russian Academy of Sciences
The Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS; russian: Росси́йская акаде́мия нау́к (РАН) ''Rossíyskaya akadémiya naúk'') consists of the national academy of Russia; a network of scientific research institutes from across ...
" nomination (2006).
In 2012 he was awarded with the Gold Kondratieff Medal
by
the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.
Contributions
Andrey Korotayev has made important contributions to the following fields.
Mathematical modeling and Cliodynamics
Global dynamics
In this field he has proposed one of the most convincing mathematical explanations for
von Foerster's Doomsday Equation.
In collaboration with his colleagues, Artemy Malkov and
Daria Khaltourina
Daria Andreyevna Khaltourina (russian: Дáрья Андрéевна Халтýрина; born 4 January 1979 in Chelyabinsk) is a Russian sociologist, anthropologist, demographer, and a public figure. She is the head of the Group of the Monitorin ...
, he has shown that till the 1970s the
hyperbolic growth
When a quantity grows towards a singularity under a finite variation (a " finite-time singularity") it is said to undergo hyperbolic growth. More precisely, the reciprocal function 1/x has a hyperbola as a graph, and has a singularity at 0, me ...
of the
world population was accompanied by
quadratic-
hyperbolic growth
When a quantity grows towards a singularity under a finite variation (a " finite-time singularity") it is said to undergo hyperbolic growth. More precisely, the reciprocal function 1/x has a hyperbola as a graph, and has a singularity at 0, me ...
of the world GDP, and developed a number of
mathematical models describing both of these phenomena simultaneously; he has also described mathematically the
World System A world-system is a socioeconomic system, under systems theory, that encompasses part or all of the globe, detailing the aggregate structural result of the sum of the interactions between polities. World-systems are usually larger than single state ...
withdrawal from the
blow-up regime observed in the recent decades.
[See, e.g., Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D]
''Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth''
Moscow: URSS Publishers, 2006.
The hyperbolic growth of the
world population and quadratic-hyperbolic growth of the world GDP observed till the 1970s have been correlated by him and his colleagues to a non-linear second order
positive feedback between the
demographic growth and technological development that can be spelled out as follows: technological growth – increase in the
carrying capacity
The carrying capacity of an environment is the maximum population size of a biological species that can be sustained by that specific environment, given the food, habitat, water, and other resources available. The carrying capacity is defined as ...
of land for people – demographic growth – more people – more potential inventors – acceleration of technological growth – accelerating growth of the
carrying capacity
The carrying capacity of an environment is the maximum population size of a biological species that can be sustained by that specific environment, given the food, habitat, water, and other resources available. The carrying capacity is defined as ...
– the faster
population growth – accelerating growth of the number of potential inventors – faster technological growth – hence, the faster growth of the Earth's carrying capacity for people, and so on.
He has also shown that the world urban population growth curve has also up till recently followed a quadratic-hyperbolic pattern. In addition, Korotayev and his colleagues have proposed a number of forecasts of the World System development up to 2100.
[Zinkina J., Korotayev A]
Explosive Population Growth in Tropical Africa: Crucial Omission in Development Forecasts (Emerging Risks and Way Out). ''World Futures'' 70/2 (2014): 120–139
Social and biological macroevolution
In collaboration with
Alexander V. Markov he has demonstrated that a similar mathematical model can be developed to describe the
macrotrends of biological
evolution. They have shown that changes in
biodiversity
Biodiversity or biological diversity is the variety and variability of life on Earth. Biodiversity is a measure of variation at the genetic (''genetic variability''), species (''species diversity''), and ecosystem (''ecosystem diversity'') le ...
through the
Phanerozoic correlate much better with hyperbolic model (widely used in
demography and
macrosociology) than with
exponential
Exponential may refer to any of several mathematical topics related to exponentiation, including:
*Exponential function, also:
**Matrix exponential, the matrix analogue to the above
*Exponential decay, decrease at a rate proportional to value
*Expo ...
and
logistic models (traditionally used in
population biology
The term population biology has been used with different meanings.
In 1971 Edward O. Wilson ''et al''. used the term in the sense of applying mathematical models to population genetics, community ecology, and population dynamics. Alan Hastings u ...
and extensively applied to
fossil biodiversity
Biodiversity or biological diversity is the variety and variability of life on Earth. Biodiversity is a measure of variation at the genetic (''genetic variability''), species (''species diversity''), and ecosystem (''ecosystem diversity'') le ...
as well). The latter models imply that changes in diversity are guided by a first-order
positive feedback (more ancestors, more descendants) and/or a
negative feedback
Negative feedback (or balancing feedback) occurs when some function of the output of a system, process, or mechanism is fed back in a manner that tends to reduce the fluctuations in the output, whether caused by changes in the input or by othe ...
arising from resource limitation. Hyperbolic model implies a second-order
positive feedback. The hyperbolic pattern of the world
population growth has been demonstrated by Korotayev to arise from a second-order positive feedback between the population size and the rate of
technological growth. According to Korotayev and Markov, the hyperbolic character of biodiversity growth can be similarly accounted for by a feedback between the diversity and community structure
complexity
Complexity characterises the behaviour of a system or model whose components interact in multiple ways and follow local rules, leading to nonlinearity, randomness, collective dynamics, hierarchy, and emergence.
The term is generally used to ch ...
. They suggest that the similarity between the curves of
biodiversity
Biodiversity or biological diversity is the variety and variability of life on Earth. Biodiversity is a measure of variation at the genetic (''genetic variability''), species (''species diversity''), and ecosystem (''ecosystem diversity'') le ...
and human population probably comes from the fact that both are derived from the interference of the hyperbolic trend with cyclical and
stochastic dynamics. Finally, Korotayev has demonstrated that the
hyperbolic models of this type may be used to describe in a rather accurate way the overall growth of the planetary complexity of the Earth since 4 billion BC up to the present.
Cliodynamics and the study of the Arab Spring
In the field of
cliodynamics
Cliodynamics () is a transdisciplinary area of research that integrates cultural evolution, economic history/cliometrics, macrosociology, the mathematical modeling of historical processes during the '' longue durée'', and the construction and anal ...
, Korotayev has developed a number of mathematical models of interaction between the very long-term, "millennial" hyperbolic trend dynamics of social
systems and the shorter-term, "secular" (that is, observed at the scale of centuries), cyclical dynamics.
He has also produced a number of mathematical models describing specifically long-term political-demographic dynamics of
Egypt[Korotayev A.V., Khaltourina D.A]
''Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa.''
Moscow: URSS, 2006. . and used them for a demographic structural analysis of the
2011 Egyptian Revolution
The 2011 Egyptian revolution, also known as the 25 January revolution ( ar, ثورة ٢٥ يناير; ), began on 25 January 2011 and spread across Egypt. The date was set by various youth groups to coincide with the annual Egyptian "Police ho ...
. Korotayev was one of the first to predict and assess the June 2013 Egyptian protests. Note also his study of 2013-2014 revolutionary wave and his interpretation of the Arab Spring events as a trigger of a global "phase transition".
Of special importance is his study of the
hypothesis that population pressure causes increased
warfare. This hypothesis has been recently criticised on the empirical grounds. Both studies focusing on specific historical societies and analyses of cross-cultural data have failed to find positive correlation between population density and incidence of warfare. Korotayev, in collaboration with
Peter Turchin, has shown that such negative results do not falsify the population-warfare hypothesis. Population and warfare are dynamical variables, and if their interaction causes sustained oscillations, then we do not in general expect to find strong correlation between the two variables measured at the same time (that is, unlagged). Korotayev and Turchin have explored mathematically what the dynamical patterns of interaction between population and warfare (focusing on internal warfare) might be in both stateless and state societies. Next, they have tested the model predictions in several empirical case studies: early modern England, Han and
Tang
Tang or TANG most often refers to:
* Tang dynasty
* Tang (drink mix)
Tang or TANG may also refer to:
Chinese states and dynasties
* Jin (Chinese state) (11th century – 376 BC), a state during the Spring and Autumn period, called Tang (唐) ...
China, and the
Roman Empire
The Roman Empire ( la, Imperium Romanum ; grc-gre, Βασιλεία τῶν Ῥωμαίων, Basileía tôn Rhōmaíōn) was the post-Roman Republic, Republican period of ancient Rome. As a polity, it included large territorial holdings aro ...
. Their empirical results have supported the population-warfare theory: Korotayev and Turchin have found that there is a tendency for population numbers and internal warfare intensity to oscillate with the same period but shifted in
phase (with warfare peaks following population peaks). Furthermore, they have demonstrated that in the agrarian societies the rates of change of the two variables behave precisely as predicted by the theory: population rate of change is negatively affected by warfare intensity, while warfare rate of change is positively affected by population density. As Kohler and Reed put it, Korotayev and Turchin have demonstrated that "human population movements and sociopolitical strife play the roles of sometimes endogenous, sometimes exogenous, factors that on small spatial scales may seem inexplicable but which on longer temporal and wider spatial scales may have understandable rhythms".
Thus, Korotayev has demonstrated that the
Malthusian trap
Malthusianism is the idea that population growth is potentially exponential while the growth of the food supply or other resources is linear, which eventually reduces living standards to the point of triggering a population die off. This event, ...
tends to generate sociopolitical upheavals.
On the other hand, he has shown that the escape from the
Malthusian trap
Malthusianism is the idea that population growth is potentially exponential while the growth of the food supply or other resources is linear, which eventually reduces living standards to the point of triggering a population die off. This event, ...
is accompanied by another "trap" generating new sociopolitical upheavals (what he calls "a trap at the escape from the trap").
Russian demographic crisis
In collaboration with
Daria Khaltourina
Daria Andreyevna Khaltourina (russian: Дáрья Андрéевна Халтýрина; born 4 January 1979 in Chelyabinsk) is a Russian sociologist, anthropologist, demographer, and a public figure. She is the head of the Group of the Monitorin ...
he has made a significant contribution to the study of the factors of the
current Russian demographic crisis. They have demonstrated that post-Soviet Russia experiences one of the world's highest prevalence of alcohol-related problems, which contributes to high mortality rates in this region. Reduction in alcohol-related problems in Russia can have strong effects on mortality decline. They have analysed the plausibility of application of general principles of alcohol policy translated in the
Russian Federation
Russia (, , ), or the Russian Federation, is a transcontinental country spanning Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. It is the largest country in the world, with its internationally recognised territory covering , and encompassing one-eight ...
. Korotayev and Khaltourina have shown that alcohol policy approaches could be implemented in the same ways as they have been in other countries, and contributed to the development of alcohol control measures in this country. In addition, according to Korotayev, there should be special attention to decreasing distilled spirits consumption, illegal alcohol production, nonbeverage alcohol consumption, and enforcement of current governmental regulations. In late 2014 they correctly predicted the forthcoming return of Russia to negative natural population growth.
"Literacy and the Spirit of Capitalism"
Korotayev and his colleagues have demonstrated that
Protestantism has indeed influenced positively the capitalist development of respective social systems not so much through the "Protestant ethics" (as was suggested by
Max Weber
Maximilian Karl Emil Weber (; ; 21 April 186414 June 1920) was a German sociologist, historian, jurist and political economist, who is regarded as among the most important theorists of the development of modern Western society. His ideas prof ...
) but rather through the promotion of literacy.
They draw attention to the fact that the ability to read was essential for
Protestants (unlike
Catholics
The Catholic Church, also known as the Roman Catholic Church, is the largest Christian church, with 1.3 billion baptized Catholics worldwide . It is among the world's oldest and largest international institutions, and has played a ...
) to perform their religious duty − to read the Bible. The reading of Holy Scripture was not necessary for Catholic laymen. The edict of the
Council of Toulouse
The Council of Toulouse (1229) was a Council of the Roman Catholic Church called by Folquet de Marselha the Bishop of Toulouse in 1229 AD. The council forbade laity to read vernacular translations of the Bible. The Council of Toulouse was a local ...
(1229) prohibited Catholic laity from possessing copies of the Bible. Soon after that, a decision by the
Council of Tarragona The Council of Tarragona was two distinct Council of the Roman Catholic Church held in the city of Tarragona, in Catalonia, Spain.
First Council at Tarragon
The Council of Tarragona was held by Archbishop John of Tarragona, on 6 November 516. Th ...
spread this prohibition to ecclesiastic people as well. In 1408, the Oxford Synod absolutely prohibited translations of the Holy Scripture. From the very beginning, Protestant groups did not accept this prohibition. Thus,
Luther
Luther may refer to:
People
* Martin Luther (1483–1546), German monk credited with initiating the Protestant Reformation
* Martin Luther King Jr. (1929-1968), American minister and leader in the American civil rights movement
* Luther (gi ...
translated in 1522–1534 first the
New Testament, and then the
Old Testament, into German, so that any German-speaking person could read the Holy Scripture in his or her native language. Moreover, the Protestants viewed reading the Holy Scripture as a religious duty of any Christian. As a result, the level of literacy and education was, in general, higher for Protestants than it was for Catholics and for followers of other confessions that did not provide religious stimuli for learning literacy. Literate populations have many more opportunities to obtain and use the achievements of modernisation than illiterate ones and display greater innovative-activity levels, which correspond with opportunities for modernisation, development, and economic growth. Empirical tests performed by Korotayev and his colleagues have confirmed the presence of a rather strong and highly significant
correlation between the early introduction of mass literacy and subsequent high rates of capitalist economic development.
World-system analysis
Andrey Korotayev claims that the present-day
world-system ("the World System"), which in the 2nd millennium CE encompassed the whole globe, originated in the 9th millennium BCE in direct connection with the
Neolithic revolution.
According to Korotayev, the centre of this system was originally in West Asia.
In general, Korotayev and his colleagues have suggested a rather novel approach to the
world-system analysis. Within this approach the main emphasis is moved to the generation and
diffusion of
innovations. If a society borrows systematically important technological innovations, its
evolution already cannot be considered as really independent, but should rather be considered as a part of a larger evolving entity, within which such innovations are systematically produced and diffused. The main idea of the world-system approach was to find the evolving unit. The basic idea was that it is impossible to account for the evolution of a single society without taking into consideration that it was a part of a larger whole. However, traditional world-system analysis concentrated on bulk-good movements, and core – periphery exploitation, somehow neglecting the above-mentioned dimension. However, according to Korotayev, the information
network
Network, networking and networked may refer to:
Science and technology
* Network theory, the study of graphs as a representation of relations between discrete objects
* Network science, an academic field that studies complex networks
Mathematic ...
turns out to be the oldest mechanism of the World System integration, and remained extremely important throughout its whole history, remaining important up to the present. It seems to be even more important than the core – periphery
exploitation
Exploitation may refer to:
*Exploitation of natural resources
*Exploitation of labour
**Forced labour
*Exploitation colonialism
*Slavery
**Sexual slavery and other forms
*Oppression
*Psychological manipulation
In arts and entertainment
* Exploit ...
(for example, without taking this mechanism into consideration it appears impossible to account for such things as the demographic explosion in the 20th century, whose proximate cause was the dramatic decline of
mortality
Mortality is the state of being mortal, or susceptible to death; the opposite of immortality.
Mortality may also refer to:
* Fish mortality, a parameter used in fisheries population dynamics to account for the loss of fish in a fish stock throug ...
, but whose main ultimate cause was the diffusion of innovations produced almost exclusively within the World System core). This also suggests a redefinition of the World System core. Within the approach in question the core is not the World System zone, which exploits other zones, but rather the World System core is the zone with the highest innovation donor/recipient ratio, the principal innovation donor.
[
Korotayev suggests that the hyperbolic trend observed for the world population growth after 10000 BCE does appear to be primarily a product of the growth of the World Syste]
Articles from journals
The presence of the hyperbolic
Hyperbolic is an adjective describing something that resembles or pertains to a hyperbola (a curve), to hyperbole (an overstatement or exaggeration), or to hyperbolic geometry.
The following phenomena are described as ''hyperbolic'' because they ...
trend itself indicates that the major part of the entity in question had some systemic unity, and Korotayev insists that the evidence for this unity is readily available. Indeed, he shows that we have evidence for the systematic spread of major innovations (domesticated cereals, cattle, sheep, goats, horses, plow, wheel, copper, bronze, and later iron technology, and so on) throughout the whole North African – Eurasian Oikumene
The ecumene ( US spelling) or oecumene ( UK spelling; grc-gre, οἰκουμένη, oikouménē, inhabited) is an ancient Greek term for the known, the inhabited, or the habitable world. In Greek antiquity, it referred to the portions of the worl ...
for a few millennia BCE. As a result, the evolution of societies of this part of the world already at this time cannot be regarded as truly independent. By the end of the 1st millennium BCE we observe a belt of cultures, stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific, with an astonishingly similar level of cultural complexity characterised by agricultural production of wheat and other specific cereals, the breeding of cattle, sheep, and goats; use of the plow, iron metallurgy, and wheeled transport; development of professional armies and cavalries deploying rather similar weapons; elaborate bureaucracies, and Axial Age
Axial Age (also Axis Age, from german: Achsenzeit) is a term coined by German philosopher Karl Jaspers. It refers to broad changes in religious and philosophical thought that occurred in a variety of locations from about the 8th to the 3rd centu ...
ideologies, and so on – this list could be extended for pages. A few millennia before, we would find another belt of societies strikingly similar in level and character of cultural complexity, stretching from the Balkans up to the Indus Valley outskirts. Korotayev interprets this as a tangible result of the World System's functioning.
Great Divergence and Great Convergence
Together with Leonid Grinin
Leonid Efimovich Grinin (russian: Леони́д Ефи́мович Гри́нин; born in 1958) is a Russian philosopher of history, sociologist, political anthropologist, economist, and futurologist.
Born in Kamyshin (the Volgograd Region), G ...
he has also made a significant contribution to the current Great Divergence debate. As is noted by Jack Goldstone, the "new view, carefully presented and rigorously modeled by Grinin and Korotayev, provides a richer and more nuanced version of the "Great Divergence," bridging many of the differences between the traditional and California viewpoints. Yet they go further. Amazingly, by building a model using human capital (education), global population growth, and regional productivity, they show how both the Great Divergence and the recent "Great Convergence" (the economic catching up of developing countries) are phases of the same process of global modernisation." In addition, Korotayev's research has revealed a close coupling between phases of global demographic transition and phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence.
Kondratieff waves
Note also his research on Kondratiev waves in the world GDP dynamics that, employing spectral analysis, has confirmed their presence at an acceptable level of statistical significance.
He has also detected Kondratieff waves in the global dynamics of invention
An invention is a unique or novel device, method, composition, idea or process. An invention may be an improvement upon a machine, product, or process for increasing efficiency or lowering cost. It may also be an entirely new concept. If an i ...
activities.
General theory of social macroevolution
In addition, it appears necessary to maintain that Korotayev's theory of the World System A world-system is a socioeconomic system, under systems theory, that encompasses part or all of the globe, detailing the aggregate structural result of the sum of the interactions between polities. World-systems are usually larger than single state ...
development suggests a novel approach to the formation of a general theory of social macroevolution. The approach prevalent in social evolutionism is based on the assumption that evolutionary regularities of simple systems are significantly simpler than the ones characteristic of complex systems. A rather logical outcome of this almost self-evident assumption is that one should first study the evolutionary regularities of simple systems and only after understanding them move to more complex ones, whereas Korotayev's findings suggest that the simplest regularities accounting for extremely large proportions of all the macrovariation can be found precisely for the largest possible system – the human world, and, hence, the study of sociocultural evolution should proceed from the detection of simple regularities of the development of the most complex systems
A complex system is a system composed of many components which may interact with each other. Examples of complex systems are Earth's global climate, organisms, the human brain, infrastructure such as power grid, transportation or communication sy ...
to the study of the complex laws of the dynamics of simple social systems.
Cross-cultural studies
From a complexity perspective Korotayev's establishes a key point, that of the bifurcations of social and kinship organisation that coalesced historically around the differential practices of the major world religions
World religions is a category used in the study of religion to demarcate the five—and in some cases more—largest and most internationally widespread religious movements. Hinduism, Buddhism, Judaism, Christianity, and Islam are always includ ...
. It draws on the World Cultural database and the world religion as well as other variables. The Murdockian comparative approach, up to Korotayev, had developed to the point where the nonindependence of cultures was well-recognized, and ways of taking the larger configurations of cultural systems into account had been reckoned to lie, in the latest iteration, along lines of high-order proto-linguistic communities. Korotayev demonstrates the effects of breaking what might be seen as a ritual taboo of Murdockian comparison: Thou Shalt Not Code World Religion. By doing so, Korotayev releases the Murdockian spell that lingers over the comparative approach in anthropology, and goes on to demonstrate the powerful effects of world religious communities — dating from what Jaspers calls the "Axial Age
Axial Age (also Axis Age, from german: Achsenzeit) is a term coined by German philosopher Karl Jaspers. It refers to broad changes in religious and philosophical thought that occurred in a variety of locations from about the 8th to the 3rd centu ...
" (800–200 BCE) – on the preservation and differentiation of distinctive social and political structures in Eurasia. His introduction and conclusion suggest that an objectivist natural history approach to human history, in which subjective factors are of local importance but fade out in terms of lasting effects over generations, is a valid approach to the "pre-Axial" condition of human societies, while a subjectivist history of consciousness is a necessary complement to the "post-Axial" condition. Korotayev succeeds in placing these two complementary approaches in context and showing their linkages in terms of how subjective and religious factors play out in human history alongside objective factors such as demography and ecology, each informing the other. He shows how it is impossible to arrive at valid inferential results from comparative approaches without an integration of the two, a situation he aptly calls "Galton
Sir Francis Galton, FRS FRAI (; 16 February 1822 – 17 January 1911), was an English Victorian era polymath: a statistician, sociologist, psychologist, anthropologist, tropical explorer, geographer, inventor, meteorologist, prot ...
's opportunity" for those are of century-old critiques of the comparative method. The reader will be surprised at the depth of empirical comparative findings in this short book. Following Murray Leaf's ''Man, Mind and Science'' (1974) this work is a major contribution to repair of the material/ideational rift in anthropology.
Matrilocal vs. patrilocal residence
One of his particular contributions in this field is connected with the classical anthropological issue of determinants of matrilocal
In social anthropology, matrilocal residence or matrilocality (also uxorilocal residence or uxorilocality) is the societal system in which a married couple resides with or near the wife's parents. Thus, the female offspring of a mother remain ...
versus patrilocal
In social anthropology, patrilocal residence or patrilocality, also known as virilocal residence or virilocality, are terms referring to the social system in which a married couple resides with or near the husband's parents. The concept of locat ...
postmarital residence. Early theories explaining the determinants of postmarital residence (e.g., Lewis Henry Morgan, Edward Tylor
Sir Edward Burnett Tylor (2 October 18322 January 1917) was an English anthropologist, and professor of anthropology.
Tylor's ideas typify 19th-century cultural evolutionism. In his works ''Primitive Culture'' (1871) and ''Anthropology'' ( ...
, or George Peter Murdock
George Peter ("Pete") Murdock (May 11, 1897 – March 29, 1985), also known as G. P. Murdock, was an American anthropologist who was professor at Yale University and University of Pittsburgh. He is remembered for his empirical approach to ethn ...
) connected it with the sexual division of labour. However, to the moment when Korotayev's research in this field began, cross-cultural tests of this hypothesis using worldwide samples had failed to find any significant relationship between these two variables. Korotayev's tests have shown that the female contribution to subsistence does correlate significantly with matrilocal residence in general; however, this correlation is masked by a general polygyny factor. Although an increase in the female contribution to subsistence tends to lead to matrilocal residence, it also tends simultaneously to lead to general non-sororal polygyny which effectively destroys matrilocality
In social anthropology, matrilocal residence or matrilocality (also uxorilocal residence or uxorilocality) is the societal system in which a married couple resides with or near the wife's parents. Thus, the female offspring of a mother remain ...
. If this polygyny factor is controlled (e. g., through a multiple regression
Regression or regressions may refer to:
Science
* Marine regression, coastal advance due to falling sea level, the opposite of marine transgression
* Regression (medicine), a characteristic of diseases to express lighter symptoms or less extent ( ...
model), division of labour turns out to be a significant predictor of postmarital residence. Thus, Murdock's hypotheses regarding the relationships between the sexual division of labour and postmarital residence were basically correct, though, as has been shown by Korotayev, the actual relationships between those two groups of variables are more complicated than he expected.
Myths, genes, and deep history
Korotayev was also one of the pioneers (together with his colleagues) of the study of correlation between spatial distributions of folklore-mythological motifs and genetic markers, as well as linguistic and sociostructural characteristics, and produced in this area significant results with respect to the deep history reconstruction. As is noticed by Julien d'Huy et al., "Korotayev and Khaltourina showed statistical correlation between spatial distributions of mythological motifs and genetic markers, considerably above the 4,000 km... Such correlations allow us to reconstruct in detail the mythology... brought to the New World from South Siberia by three Paleolithic migration waves".
Unilineal descent and Christianization
Korotayev studies variables that are usually regarded as the main causes of the decline of unilineal descent
Unilineality is a system of determining descent groups in which one belongs to one's father's or mother's line, whereby one's descent is traced either exclusively through male ancestors (patriline), or exclusively through female ancestors (matrili ...
organisation (statehood, class stratification and commercialisation), along with a variable that had never been regarded as such a cause – deep Christianization. He postulates that the traditionally accepted causes of the decline of unilineal descent organisation (statehood, class stratification, commercialisation) are less significant than deep Christianization. He also theorises that the presence of unilineal descent groups correlates negatively with communal democracy and is especially strong for complex traditional societies. Korotayev concludes that, because the communal democracy correlates positively with the supracommunal one, the Christianization of Europe might have contributed to the development of modern democracy by helping to destroy unilineal descent organisation in this region.
Sociopolitical systems in the Middle East and Africa
Origins of parallel-cousin marriage and the Afrasian Instability Zone
Islamization, along with an area's inclusion in the 8th-century Arab-Islamic Khalifate (and its persistence within the Islamic world) has been demonstrated by Korotayev to be a strong and significant predictor of parallel cousin (Father's Brother's Daughter – FBD) marriage. He has shown that while there is a clear functional connection between Islam and FBD marriage, the prescription to marry a FBD does not appear to be sufficient to persuade people to actually marry thus, even if the marriage brings with it economic advantages. According to Korotayev, a systematic acceptance of parallel-cousin marriage took place when Islamization occurred together with Arabization. This research further led to the discovery of the so-called Afrasian Instability Zone.
Yemeni Studies
Korotayev has made a special contribution in this field by detecting principal trends in the evolution of Yemeni cultures through application of quantitative methods to the analysis of mass epigraphic sources in the Sabaic language. Korotayev has thereby discovered the phenomenon of consolidation of the clan
A clan is a group of people united by actual or perceived kinship
and descent. Even if lineage details are unknown, clans may claim descent from founding member or apical ancestor. Clans, in indigenous societies, tend to be endogamous, meanin ...
organisation in North-East Yemen in the late 1st millennium BCE as well as the transition from chiefdom
A chiefdom is a form of hierarchical political organization in non-industrial societies usually based on kinship, and in which formal leadership is monopolized by the legitimate senior members of select families or 'houses'. These elites form a ...
s to tribe
The term tribe is used in many different contexts to refer to a category of human social group. The predominant worldwide usage of the term in English is in the discipline of anthropology. This definition is contested, in part due to conflic ...
s in early medieval Yemen. He was also the first to provide convincing evidence for the existence of matrilineal descent organisation in Pre-Islamic Arabia
The Arabian Peninsula, (; ar, شِبْهُ الْجَزِيرَةِ الْعَرَبِيَّة, , "Arabian Peninsula" or , , "Island of the Arabs") or Arabia, is a peninsula of Western Asia, situated northeast of Africa on the Arabian Plat ...
and to suggest an adequate translation of the largest Qatabanic inscription, R 3566.
African Studies
Korotayev and his colleagues have also made significant contributions to the study of political-demographic dynamics in Subsaharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is, geographically, the area and regions of the continent of Africa that lies south of the Sahara. These include West Africa, East Africa, Central Africa, and Southern Africa. Geopolitically, in addition to the List of sov ...
, especially, the problems of the Tropical African countries' escape from the Malthusian trap
Malthusianism is the idea that population growth is potentially exponential while the growth of the food supply or other resources is linear, which eventually reduces living standards to the point of triggering a population die off. This event, ...
.
Origins of Islam
Korotayev has also done (together with his colleagues Vladimir Klimenko and Dmitry Proussakov) a significant contribution to the study of the origins of Islam. Korotayev and his colleagues view the origins of Islam against the background of the 6th century Arabian socioecological crisis
A crisis ( : crises; : critical) is either any event or period that will (or might) lead to an unstable and dangerous situation affecting an individual, group, or all of society. Crises are negative changes in the human or environmental affair ...
whose model is specified by Korotayev and his colleagues through the study of climatological
Climatology (from Greek , ''klima'', "place, zone"; and , ''-logia'') or climate science is the scientific study of Earth's climate, typically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of at least 30 years. This modern field of study ...
, seismological, volcanological and epidemiological
Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution (who, when, and where), patterns and determinants of health and disease conditions in a defined population.
It is a cornerstone of public health, and shapes policy decisions and evid ...
history of the period. They find that most sociopolitical systems of the Arabs
The Arabs (singular: Arab; singular ar, عَرَبِيٌّ, DIN 31635: , , plural ar, عَرَب, DIN 31635: , Arabic pronunciation: ), also known as the Arab people, are an ethnic group mainly inhabiting the Arab world in Western Asia, No ...
reacted to the socioecological crisis by getting rid of the rigid supratribal political structures (kingdoms and chiefdom
A chiefdom is a form of hierarchical political organization in non-industrial societies usually based on kinship, and in which formal leadership is monopolized by the legitimate senior members of select families or 'houses'. These elites form a ...
s) which started posing a real threat to their very survival.
The decades of fighting which led to the destruction of the most of the Arabian kingdoms and chiefdom
A chiefdom is a form of hierarchical political organization in non-industrial societies usually based on kinship, and in which formal leadership is monopolized by the legitimate senior members of select families or 'houses'. These elites form a ...
s (reflected in ''Ayyam al-'Arab'' tradition) led to the elaboration of some definite "antiroyal" freedom-loving tribal ethos
Ethos ( or ) is a Greek word meaning "character" that is used to describe the guiding beliefs or ideals that characterize a community, nation, or ideology; and the balance between caution, and passion. The Greeks also used this word to refer to ...
. At the beginning of the 7th century a tribe which would recognise themselves as subjects of some terrestrial supratribal political authority, a "king", risked to lose its honour. However, this seems not to be applicable to the authority of another type, the "celestial" one. At the meantime the early 7th century evidences the merging of the Arabian
The Arabian Peninsula, (; ar, شِبْهُ الْجَزِيرَةِ الْعَرَبِيَّة, , "Arabian Peninsula" or , , "Island of the Arabs") or Arabia, is a peninsula of Western Asia, situated northeast of Africa on the Arabian Plate ...
tradition of prophecy and the Arabian Monotheist "Rahmanist" tradition which produced "the Arabian prophetic movement".
According to Korotayev, the Monotheist "Rahmanist" prophets appear to have represented a supratribal authority just of the type many Arab
The Arabs (singular: Arab; singular ar, عَرَبِيٌّ, DIN 31635: , , plural ar, عَرَب, DIN 31635: , Arabic pronunciation: ), also known as the Arab people, are an ethnic group mainly inhabiting the Arab world in Western Asia, No ...
tribe
The term tribe is used in many different contexts to refer to a category of human social group. The predominant worldwide usage of the term in English is in the discipline of anthropology. This definition is contested, in part due to conflic ...
s were looking for at this very time, which seems to explain to a certain extent those prophets' political success (including the extreme political success of Muhammad).
Select publications
Korotayev has written over 35 books and 300 articles dealing with his research interest
Andrey Korotayev - InterSciWiki
These include
''Ancient Yemen''
(Oxford University Press, 1995);
''Pre-Islamic Yemen''. Wiesbaden: Harrassowitz, 1996
''World Religions and Social Evolution of the Old World Oikumene Civilizations: A Cross-cultural Perspective''
(Edwin Mellen Press, 2004);
''Introduction to Social Macrodynamics. Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth''
(KomKniga/URSS, 2006, with Artemy Malkov and Daria Khaltourina
Daria Andreyevna Khaltourina (russian: Дáрья Андрéевна Халтýрина; born 4 January 1979 in Chelyabinsk) is a Russian sociologist, anthropologist, demographer, and a public figure. She is the head of the Group of the Monitorin ...
);
''Introduction to Social Macrodynamics. Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends''
(KomKniga/URSS, 2006, with Artemy Malkov and Daria Khaltourina
Daria Andreyevna Khaltourina (russian: Дáрья Андрéевна Халтýрина; born 4 January 1979 in Chelyabinsk) is a Russian sociologist, anthropologist, demographer, and a public figure. She is the head of the Group of the Monitorin ...
);
''Great Divergence and Great Convergence. A Global Perspective''
(Springer, 2015, with Leonid Grinin
Leonid Efimovich Grinin (russian: Леони́д Ефи́мович Гри́нин; born in 1958) is a Russian philosopher of history, sociologist, political anthropologist, economist, and futurologist.
Born in Kamyshin (the Volgograd Region), G ...
).
''Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery''
(Springer, 2016, with Leonid Grinin
Leonid Efimovich Grinin (russian: Леони́д Ефи́мович Гри́нин; born in 1958) is a Russian philosopher of history, sociologist, political anthropologist, economist, and futurologist.
Born in Kamyshin (the Volgograd Region), G ...
and Arno Tausch
The Arno is a river in the Tuscany region of Italy. It is the most important river of central Italy after the Tiber.
Source and route
The river originates on Monte Falterona in the Casentino area of the Apennines, and initially takes a ...
).
''Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy. World System and World Values Perspectives''
(Springer, 2019, with Leonid Grinin
Leonid Efimovich Grinin (russian: Леони́д Ефи́мович Гри́нин; born in 1958) is a Russian philosopher of history, sociologist, political anthropologist, economist, and futurologist.
Born in Kamyshin (the Volgograd Region), G ...
and Arno Tausch
The Arno is a river in the Tuscany region of Italy. It is the most important river of central Italy after the Tiber.
Source and route
The river originates on Monte Falterona in the Casentino area of the Apennines, and initially takes a ...
)
Among his more important journal articles are
"Origins of Islam". ''Acta Orientalia Academiae Scientiarum Hungaricae'' 53/3–4 (1999): 243–276
(with Vladimir Klimenko and Dmitry Proussakov),
"Regions Based on Social Structure: A Reconsideration". ''Current Anthropology'' 41/5 (October 2000): 668–690
(with Alexander Kazankov),
Evolutionary Agent-Based Model of Pre-State Warfare Patterns: Cross-Cultural Tests. ''World Cultures'' 15/1 (2004): 28–36
(with Mikhail Burtsev).
''A Compact Macromodel of World System Evolution''
in the ''Journal of World Systems Research'' 11/1 (2005): 79–93.
* ttp://ssrn.com/abstract=1703534 The World System Urbanization Dynamics: A quantitative analysisin History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies (Ed. by Peter Turchin, Leonid Grinin
Leonid Efimovich Grinin (russian: Леони́д Ефи́мович Гри́нин; born in 1958) is a Russian philosopher of history, sociologist, political anthropologist, economist, and futurologist.
Born in Kamyshin (the Volgograd Region), G ...
et al., p. 44–62. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006),
*Social Macroevolution: Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitions. World Futures, Volume 65, Issue 7 October 2009, pages 477–506 (with Leonid Grinin
Leonid Efimovich Grinin (russian: Леони́д Ефи́мович Гри́нин; born in 1958) is a Russian philosopher of history, sociologist, political anthropologist, economist, and futurologist.
Born in Kamyshin (the Volgograd Region), G ...
),
A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis
''Structure and Dynamics''. 2010. Vol.4. No. 1. P.3-57 (with Sergey Tsirel),
Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis Forecasts the Burst of the "Gold Bubble" in April – June 2011 // Structure and Dynamics 4/3 (2010): 1–11
(with Askar Akayev
Askar Akayevich Akayev ( ky, Аскар Акаевич (Акай уулу) Акаев, translit=Askar Akayevich (Akay Uulu) Akayev ; ; born 10 November 1944) is a Kyrgyz politician who served as President of Kyrgyzstan from 1990 until being ov ...
, Alexey Fomin, and Sergey Tsirel),
*
Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis. ''Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar'' 13 (2011): 139–165
(with Julia Zinkina),
A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia. ''Cliodynamics'' 2/2 (2011): 276–303
(with Daria Khaltourina
Daria Andreyevna Khaltourina (russian: Дáрья Андрéевна Халтýрина; born 4 January 1979 in Chelyabinsk) is a Russian sociologist, anthropologist, demographer, and a public figure. She is the head of the Group of the Monitorin ...
and others),
*
Globalization Shuffles Cards of the World Pack: In Which Direction is the Global Economic-Political Balance Shifting? ''World Futures'', 70: 515–545, 2014
(with Leonid Grinin
Leonid Efimovich Grinin (russian: Леони́д Ефи́мович Гри́нин; born in 1958) is a Russian philosopher of history, sociologist, political anthropologist, economist, and futurologist.
Born in Kamyshin (the Volgograd Region), G ...
).
Phases of global demographic transition correlate with phases of the Great Divergence and Great Convergence. ''Technological Forecasting and Social Change''. Volume 95, June 2015, Pages 163–169
(with Jack A. Goldstone
Jack A. Goldstone (born September 30, 1953) is an American sociologist, political scientist, and historian, specializing in studies of social movements, revolutions, political demography, and the 'Rise of the West' in world history. He is an ...
& Julia Zinkina).
Effects of specific alcohol control policy measures on alcohol-related mortality in Russia from 1998 to 2013. ''Alcohol and Alcoholism'', 2015, 50(5), 588-601
(with Daria Khaltourina
Daria Andreyevna Khaltourina (russian: Дáрья Андрéевна Халтýрина; born 4 January 1979 in Chelyabinsk) is a Russian sociologist, anthropologist, demographer, and a public figure. She is the head of the Group of the Monitorin ...
).
*
Afrasian Instability Zone and Its Historical Background. ''Social Evolution & History''. 2016. Vol. 15(2). P. 120-140
Great Divergence of the 18th century? ''Cliodynamics'' 9/2 (2018): 108–123
The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis
''Journal of Big History'' 2/3 (2018): 71 - 118.
GDP Per Capita and Protest Activity: A Quantitative Reanalysis. ''Cross-Cultural Research'' 52/4 (2018): 406–440
Edited volumes by Andrey Korotayev
''The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective''
(Springer, 2020)
''History & Mathematics: Big History Aspects''
(2019).
''Evolution: Evolutionary Trends, Aspects, and Patterns''
(2019).
Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Global Evolution, Historical Globalistics and Globalization Studies
(2017)
History & Mathematics: Economy, Demography, Culture, and Cosmic Civilizations
(2017).
Political Demography & Global Ageing
(2015).
''Evolution: From Big Bang to Nanorobots''. Moscow: Uchitel, 2015
''Trends and Cycles'', Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, 2014
''Teaching & Researching Big History: Exploring a New Scholarly Field'', International Big History Association, 2014
Kondratieff Waves: Dimensions and Prospects at the Dawn of the 21st Century. Volgograd: Uchitel, 2012
Leonid Grinin
Leonid Efimovich Grinin (russian: Леони́д Ефи́мович Гри́нин; born in 1958) is a Russian philosopher of history, sociologist, political anthropologist, economist, and futurologist.
Born in Kamyshin (the Volgograd Region), G ...
Volgograd: 'Uchitel' Publishing House, 2011.