2018 Pakistan general election

General elections were held in Pakistan on Wednesday, 25 July 2018 to elect the members of 15th National Assembly and the four Provincial Assemblies. The three major parties Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led by Imran Khan, the Pakistan Muslim League led by Shehbaz Sharif and the Pakistan Peoples Party led by Bilawal Bhutto. The PTI won the most seats in the National Assembly but fell short of a majority; the party subsequently formed a coalition government with several smaller parties. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) retained its dominance in Sindh and the newly formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) emerged as the largest party in Balochistan. In Punjab, the result was a hung parliament with the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) winning the most seats. However, after several independents MPAs joined the PTI, the latter became the largest party and was able to form a government.

Opinion polling prior to the campaigns starting had initially shown leads for the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) over the PTI. However, from an 11-point lead, the PML-N's lead began to diminish in the final weeks of the campaign, with some polls close to the election showing the PTI with a marginal but increasing lead. In the lead-up to the elections, there were rumours about some pre-poll rigging being conducted by the judiciary, the military and the intelligence agencies to sway the election results in favour of the PTI and against the PML-N. However, Reuters polling suggested PML-N's lead had genuinely narrowed in the run-up to the elections, and that the party had suffered "blow after blow" which caused setbacks to any hopes of re-election.

Election day saw the PTI receive 31.82% of the vote (its highest share of the vote since its foundation), while the PML-N received 24.35%. Following the elections, six major parties including PML-N claimed there had been large-scale vote rigging and administrative malpractices. Imran Khan, chairman of the PTI, proceeded to form a coalition government, announcing his cabinet shortly after the elections. The newly formed coalition government included members of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and Pakistan Muslim League (Q).

Regarding the voting process, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) outrightly rejected reports of rigging and stated that the elections had been fair and free. A top electoral watchdog, Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), also said that the 2018 general elections in Pakistan had been "more transparent in some aspects" than the previous polls. In its preliminary report, the European Union Election Observation Mission said that no rigging had been observed during the election day in general, but found a "lack of equality" and criticized the process more than it had in the Pakistani election of 2013.

This was also the third consecutive election from Pakistan's most recent transition to democracy where a democratic handover of power was observed. The day after the election, despite reservations over the result, PML-N conceded defeat. Pakistan's election commission reiterated its position, rejecting reports of rigging. The voter turnout dropped from 55.0% in 2013 to 51.7%.

Although the election commission rejected rigging allegations, there were claims that Khan was able to lure more electable candidates to his party than PML-N, which led to suggestions that there was electoral inequality. However, the newly minted opposition decided against boycotting parliament, lending legitimacy to the electoral process by parliamentary participation. Initially a recount was ordered in 14 constituencies because of procedural errors. Moreover, procedural errors then led to a recount on 70 constituencies by the election commission (more than the winners margin of victory in Punjab and Federal elections). After the conclusion of these recounts, the ECP published a seat tally which confirmed PTI's position of being the largest party in the National Assembly. The margin for the Punjab election was narrow between Khan's PTI and Pakistan Muslim League (N), but independents and Pakistan Muslim League (Q) factions endorsed federal winners PTI, which led to Khan's party forming government in Punjab also. Thus PML-N lost the elections both at the provincial and the federal level, becoming the opposition, nominating Shehbaz Sharif to be leader of the opposition at the federal level and his son Hamza Shahbaz as opposition leader in Punjab.

Background

2013 elections

Following the elections in 2013, Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), led by twice Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif, emerged as the largest party with 166 seats out of a total of 342 in the National Assembly. Although this was short of a majority, Sharif was able to form a government after several independents joined his party.

During the election campaign, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by prominent cricketer turned politician Imran Khan, was widely expected to have huge success in the polls. The party fell short of these expectations, instead only taking 35 seats. It became the 3rd largest party in the National Assembly and formed a coalition government in the restive north-western province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Azadi march (2014)

PTI had initially conceded the elections to PML (N), although they asked for manual recounts to be carried out in several constituencies where rigging had been allegedly carried out. These calls were not answered by the government or the Supreme Court, despite a 2,100 page white paper by the party which allegedly contained evidence of vote-rigging in favour of the PML (N). The Azadi March of 2014 (''Azadi'' meaning ''Freedom'' in Urdu. The sit-in in Islamabad continued for 126 days, until the 2014 Peshawar school massacre occurred, which forced Khan to end the protest for the sake of ‘national unity’. A judicial commission was formed by the government which would probe the allegations of vote-rigging: it found the election to have been largely conducted in a free and fair manner, while also stating that PTI's request for a probe was not "entirely unjustified".

Panama Papers case (2016)

On 3 April 2016 the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) made 11.5 million secret documents, later known as the Panama Papers, available to the public. The documents, sourced from Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca with links to the family of Nawaz Sharif, the then-incumbent Prime Minister of Pakistan, and his brother Shehbaz Sharif, the incumbent Chief Minister of Punjab. According to the ICIJ, Sharif's children Maryam Nawaz, Hassan Nawaz and Hussain Nawaz “were owners or had the right to authorise transactions for several companies”.

Sharif refused to resign and instead make an unsuccessful attempt to form a judicial commission. The opposition leader Khan filed a petition to the Supreme Court of Pakistan on 29 August seeking the disqualification of Sharif from public office (which would automatically remove him of the office of Prime Minister). This petition was also supported by prominent political leaders Sheikh Rasheed ( AML) and Siraj-ul-Haq ( PAT). Khan called, once again, for his supporters to put Islamabad in lockdown until Sharif resigned, although this was called off soon before it was meant to take place.

On 20 April 2017, on a 3-2 verdict, the Supreme Court decided against the disqualification of Sharif, instead calling for a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to be created which would probe these allegations further.

On 10 July 2017, JIT submitted a 275-page report in the apex court. The report requested NAB to file a reference against Sharif, his daughter Maryam, and his sons under section 9 of National Accountability Ordinance. Additionally, the report claimed that his daughter Maryam was guilty of falsifying documents, as she submitted a document from 2006 which used the Calibri font despite the font itself not being available for public use until 2007.

Disqualification of Nawaz Sharif (2017)

On 28 July 2017, following the submittal of the JIT report, the Supreme Court unanimously decided that Sharif was dishonest, therefore not fulfilling the requirements of articles 62 and 63 of the constitution which require one who holds public office to be ''Sadiq'' and ''Ameen'' (Urdu to file a reference against Sharif, his family and his former Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on corruption charges.

Electoral system

The 342 members of the National Assembly are elected by two methods in three categories; 272 are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting; 60 are reserved for women and 10 for religious minority groups; both sets of reserved seats use proportional representation with a 5% electoral threshold. This proportional number, however, is based on the number of seats won rather than votes cast. To win a simple majority, a party would have to take 137 seats.

The 2018 General Elections were held under new delimitation can of constituencies as a result of 2017 Census of Pakistan. Parliament of Pakistan amended the Constitution, allowing a one-time exemption for redrawing constituency boundaries using 2017 provisional census results. As per the notification issued on 5 March 2018, the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) now has three constituencies, Punjab 141, Sindh 61, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 39, Balochistan 16 and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) has 12 constituencies in the National Assembly. 106 million people were registered to vote for members of the National Assembly of Pakistan and four Provincial Assemblies.

Likewise for elections to provincial assemblies, Punjab has 297 constituencies, Sindh 130, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 99 and Balochistan 51.

Electoral reforms

In June 2017 the Economic Coordination Committee approved the procurement of new printing machines with a bridge loan of 864 million rupees. The government has also developed new software for the Election Commission of Pakistan and NADRA to ensure a "free, fair, impartial, transparent and peaceful general election." The former Federal Law Minister Zahid Hamid elaborated that youth reaching the age of 18 will automatically be registered as voters when they apply for a CNIC from NADRA.

Contesting parties

Campaign

Major by-elections (2017–2018)

Following the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif, several by-elections were held throughout Pakistan.

Lahore by-election, September 2017

The first of these was the by-election in Sharif's former constituency, NA-120 Lahore, which is located in the capital city of the Punjab province, a province where the PML (N) was the ruling party. It retained this seat, albeit with a much reduced majority due to gains by the PTI and minor Islamist parties.

Peshawar by-election, October 2017

The second of these was a by election in Peshawar, capital city of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, where the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, was the ruling party. NA-4 once again voted for PTI, despite a reduced majority: once again mainly due to the rise of Islamist parties. These by-elections largely were largely seen as indicators that the ruling parties in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab were still electorally strong.

Lodhran by-election, 2018

On 15 December 2017, Jahangir Khan Tareen, General Secretary of the PTI, was disqualified from holding public office. Hence, his NA-154 Lodhran seat was vacated.

In a previous by-election in this constituency in 2015, Tareen won this seat with a majority in excess of 35,000 votes. Therefore, this seat was seen as a stronghold for the PTI.

In what was seen as an upset result, Iqbal Shah of the PML (N) won this by-election with a majority over 25,000 votes against Jahangir Tareen's son, Ali Tareen. Many saw this as a failure on the PTI's behalf, and the result led to a drop in morale for PTI workers.

Campaigning

The National Assembly and provincial assemblies of Pakistan dissolved as early as 28 May for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh, and as late as 31 May for Punjab, Balochistan, and the National Assembly.

The assemblies dissolved during the holy month of Ramadan, a month where Muslims worldwide refrain from eating or drinking from sunrise to sundown. Hence, most major parties did not start campaigning until late June.

Nomination papers

On 4 June, parties and individuals started filing nomination papers for the elections. This process continued until 8 June. After this, the returning officer in each constituency began scrutiny of the nominated candidates and decided whether or not to accept the nomination papers.

The scrutiny resulted in many high-profile politicians having their nomination papers rejected: Imran Khan (chairman of PTI), Farooq Sattar (chairman of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (Pakistan) (MQM-P)) and Pervez Musharraf (chairman of All Pakistan Muslim League and former President), had their nomination papers rejected. Both Sattar and Khan had their nomination papers later accepted.

Additionally, politicians Fawad Chaudhry (Information Secretary of PTI) and Shahid Khaqan Abbasi (former Prime Minister) were disqualified from contesting these elections by election tribunals due to the non declaration of assets in their nomination papers. This was controversial because election tribunals were seen as not having the jurisdiction to disqualify candidates, rather only to accept or reject their nomination papers. The Lahore High Court eventually overturned these judgements and allowed the respective candidates to contest their elections. Two major politicians of Tehreek-e-Insaf from Chakwal, Sardar Ghulam Abbas and Sardar Aftab Akbar Khan were disqualified to contest elections producing major problem in Chakwal district for the party.

Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)

Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) launched its election campaign on 25 June 2018 from Karachi. On 5 July 2018, PMLN unveiled its election manifesto. Nevertheless, it has been stated there was, "lack of equality of opportunity" in the pre-election campaign, and there were systematic attempts to undermine the ruling party PML-N.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf started its election campaign on 24 June 2018 from Mianwali. On 9 July 2018, Imran Khan launched PTI's election manifesto. On 23 July 2018, PTI concluded its electioneering with rallies in Lahore.

Pakistan Peoples Party

On 28 June 2018, PPP became the first political party to unveil its election manifesto. PPP kicked off its election campaign on 30 June 2018, as Bilawal inaugurated their election office in Lyari, Karachi.

Opinion polls

Conduct

There were 272 national and 577 provincial assembly constituencies, contested by over 3,600 and 8,800 candidates respectively. A total of 811,491 staff were deployed for election duties as presiding officers, assistant presiding officers, and polling officers, in addition to 371,000 armed forces personnel who provided security duties alongside police and other law enforcement agencies. There were 85,317 polling stations set up, comprising over 242,000 polling booths. The election watchdog FAFEN deployed 19,683 neutral observers accredited with the Election Commission to observe the voting and counting process at over 72,000 polling stations.

Violence

Several violent incidents took place in the month of July in the run up to the general election. In the beginning of the month, bombing targeted the PTI candidate for NA-48 (Tribal Area-IX), and the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal's candidate in the Takhti Khel area of the Bannu. On 10 July, a suicide bombing by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) killed 20 people and injured 63 at an Awami National Party (ANP) rally in Peshawar. As the bombing killed ANP provincial candidate Haroon Bilour, the elections for Constituency PK-78 were postponed by the Election Commission. On 12 July, one political staff was killed in Peshawar, while two BAP staff were injured in Khuzdar. On 13 July, twin bombings by ISIS-K in Mastung and Bannu left 154 people dead and 220 injured. The bombings targeted JUI-F candidate Akram Khan Durrani, BAP candidate for the Nawabzada Siraj Raisani. On 22 July, the PTI candidate for constituency PK-99, Ikramullah Gandapur, was killed in a bombing near of Dera Ismail Khan. The same day, Akram Khan Durrani survived a second assassination attempt. On 24 July, three Pakistani Army soldiers and a civilian were killed in Kech District

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