2022 Michigan Gubernatorial Election

The 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Michigan. Incumbent Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer ran for re-election to a second term and faced former political commentator Tudor Dixon in the general election. Whitmer defeated Dixon by a margin of nearly 11 percentage points, a wider margin than polls indicated as well as a wider margin than Whitmer's first victory four years prior. Whitmer won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Dixon's defeat.

This was the first gubernatorial election in Michigan history in which both major party candidates for governor were women, and the first since 1990 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president.

Process for ballot appearance and fraud allegations

In order to appear on a primary ballot for the August 2 Democratic and Republican primaries, candidates must submit between 15,000 and 30,000 signatures in addition to their filing paperwork. These signatures are submitted to the Board of State Canvassers, a bipartisan and independent board that verifies petition signatures. Within seven days of the filing deadline, citizens and organizations can challenge nomination signatures submitted by candidates. Voters are only allowed to sign one nomination petition.

After the filing deadline, the Board of State Canvassers received nearly 30 challenges to nomination petitions. Among them, the Michigan Democratic Party alleged that several Republican candidates engaged in signature fraud with their petitions. This was followed by a report by the Michigan Bureau of Elections which alleged that 36 paid signature circulators faked signatures and engaged in practices that added fraudulent signatures to other candidates petitions.

An eight-hour meeting of the Board of State Canvassers reached a deadlock on whether to allow the candidates in question to stay on the ballot. Due to the deadlock, the candidates in question were not allowed to appear on the primary ballot. The rushed pace of the proceedings and the decision were criticized by Common Cause of Michigan, whose policy director suggested that the candidates in question had to plead their cases to the Board of Canvassers days after finding out about the alleged fraud themselves.

Several candidates filed lawsuits appealing the decision. These suits were rejected in the Michigan Court of Appeals. Three candidates appealed to the Michigan Supreme Court, but these appeals were denied.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

* Gretchen Whitmer, incumbent governor (2019–present) and vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2021–present)
** Running mate: Garlin Gilchrist, incumbent lieutenant governor (2019–present)

Endorsements

Results

Republican primary

Fourteen people declared their candidacy for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. At the filing deadline, 10 candidates submitted enough signatures to appear on the ballot, a state record. However, following challenges by the state Democratic party and other organizations, five candidates were deemed ineligible to appear on the ballot due to alleged fraudulent signatures. Several of these candidates, including former Detroit police chief James Craig and Michael Markey, pledged to appeal the decision to the State Supreme Court. Craig also mentioned that, should the appeal fail, he would still plan to run as a write-in candidate for both the primary and the general election. On June 15, 2022, Craig announced he was launching a write-in campaign for the nomination.

On June 9, 2022, candidate Ryan Kelley was arrested by the FBI following numerous tips that he had participated in the January 6 United States Capitol attack. The criminal complaint alleges that Kelley engaged in disorderly conduct on restricted grounds and engaged in acts of violence against a person or property. He agreed in June 2023 to plead guilty on a lesser charge in relation to his participation in the insurrection.

On August 19, 2022, Dixon announced former state representative Shane Hernandez as her running mate. However, shortly after, former gubernatorial candidates Ralph Rebandt and Garrett Soldano both announced that they were exploring the possibility of launching their own campaigns for lieutenant governor to contest Hernandez at the August 27 state GOP convention for not being conservative enough. On August 22, 2022, Soldano announced that he would not seek the position of lieutenant governor at the convention. Later that same day, Rebandt announced that he would seek the nomination at the convention. Hernandez secured his party's nomination at the convention, despite heated opposition from supporters of Rebandt.

On June 22, 2023, charges were filed against three individuals regarding the fraudulent signatures that disqualified five of the candidates in the Republican primary.

Candidates

Nominee

* Tudor Dixon, conservative media personality
** Running mate: Shane Hernandez, former state representative from the 83rd district (2017–2021) and candidate for Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2020

Eliminated in primary

* Ryan Kelley, Allendale Township Planning commissioner
** Running mate: Jamie Swafford, Ethnic Vice-chair of the Michigan Republican Party
* Ralph Rebandt, Farmington Hills pastor
* Kevin Rinke, businessman
* Garrett Soldano, chiropractor, businessman and former co-chairman of Unlock Michigan

Disqualified, write-in campaign

*James Craig, former chief of the Detroit Police Department (2013–2021)

Failed to qualify

* Donna Brandenburg, businesswoman ''(became U.S. Taxpayers Party nominee after disqualification)''
* Mike Brown, captain in the Michigan State Police ''(endorsed Kevin Rinke)''
* Perry Johnson, businessman
* Michael Jay Markey Jr., businessman and media personality
* Bob Scott, jelly maker and Vice President of the Evangelical Alliance Ministerial Association
* Evan Space, Michigan Army National Guard veteran and candidate for governor in 2018

Withdrawn

* Articia Bomer, Detroit document specialist'' ( ran unsuccessfully for Michigan's 13th congressional district)''
* Austin Chenge, businessman and U.S. Army veteran

Declined

* Tom Barrett, state senator from the 24th district (2019–2023) (''running for Michigan's 7th congressional district'')
* Jack Bergman, U.S. representative for (2017–present) ('' running for re-election'') (''endorsed James Craig, later switched to Perry Johnson'')
*Betsy DeVos, former U.S. Secretary of Education (2017–2021) and former chair of the Michigan Republican Party (1996–2000, 2003–2005)
* Bill Huizenga, U.S. representative for (2011–present) ('' running for re-election'') (''endorsed Tudor Dixon'')
* John James, businessman, former U.S. Army Captain and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2020 ''(running for Michigan's 10th congressional district)''
* Tom Leonard, former speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives (2017–2019) and nominee for attorney general in 2018 ('' ran unsuccessfully for attorney general'')
* Lisa McClain, U.S. representative for (2021–present) ('' running for re-election'') (''endorsed Tudor Dixon'')
* Candice Miller, Macomb County Public Works Commissioner (2017–present), former U.S. representative for (2003–2016), and former Michigan Secretary of State (1995–2003)
* Mike Shirkey, Majority Leader of the Michigan Senate (2019–present) and former state representative from the 65th district (2010–2014) (''endorsed Tudor Dixon'')

Endorsements

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

John James vs. James Craig

Results

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominated

* Mary Buzuma, nominee for governor in 2014
** Running mate: Brian Ellison, nominee for Michigan's 8th congressional district in 2018

Constitution convention

Candidates

Nominee

* Donna Brandenburg, businesswoman ''(Nominated following disqualification from GOP ballot)''
**Running mate: Mellissa Carone, 2020 election hearing witness for Rudy Giuliani

General election

Predictions

Endorsements

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Ryan Kelley

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Ralph Rebandt

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Kevin Rinke

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Garrett Soldano

Gretchen Whitmer vs. James Craig

Gretchen Whitmer vs. John James

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Candice Miller

Gretchen Whitmer vs. generic Republican

Gretchen Whitmer vs. generic opponent

Debates

The first debate was held on Thursday, October 13 in Grand Rapids hosted by local TV station WOOD-TV. The two clashed on various issues such as abortion, the economy and COVID-19. Analysts determined this debate to be a draw.

The second debate was held on Tuesday, October 25 on the campus of Oakland University in Rochester. The debate was co-sponsored by Oakland University's Center for Civic Engagement and E.W. Scripps owned TV stations WXYZ-TV in Detroit, WXMI-TV in Grand Rapids and WSYM-TV in Lansing. News stories about the debate specifically noted a question Whitmer gave Dixon when they argued on school safety and library books: "Do you really think books are more dangerous than guns?"

Fundraising

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
* Gogebic (Largest city: Ironwood)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
* Benzie (Largest city: Frankfort)
* Grand Traverse (Largest city: Traverse City)

By congressional district

Whitmer won nine of 13 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.

Analysis

Whitmer led Dixon in most of the polls. Most Republican donors chose not to fund campaign ads for Dixon, causing the TV airwaves to be dominated by ads for Whitmer, which included negative ads against Dixon. Whitmer also spent a lot more in digital advertising compared to Dixon. Abortion rights, which were on the ballot in the same election, were the subject of negative ads against Dixon, who opposed abortion rights. Although aggregate polling had Whitmer up by about 3%, and a last-minute poll by Trafalgar Group had Dixon ahead by 1%, the election was not close. Whitmer defeated Dixon at the same time Michigan voters approved a ballot measure that would guarantee abortion rights in the Michigan constitution. Democrats swept the other statewide partisan races and won control of both the state House and state Senate. This marked the first time Democrats took control of both houses of the Michigan legislature since 1984. Exit polls found that Whitmer won nearly 70% of college-educated White women.

Despite Dixon's loss, she managed to flip Gogebic County in the Upper Peninsula (which had voted for Whitmer in 2018), making this the first election since 1932 where a Democrat won the Michigan governor's mansion without carrying Gogebic County. Conversely, Whitmer flipped the counties of Benzie and Grand Traverse; the last time the Democratic candidate won these counties were 2006 and 1986, respectively.

Notes

Partisan clients

References

External links

Official campaign websites

Donna Brandenburg (C) for Governor

Mary Buzuma (L) for Governor

Tudor Dixon (R) for Governor

Gretchen Whitmer (D) for Governor

{{DEFAULTSORT:Michigan gubernatorial election, 2022
2022
2022 United States gubernatorial elections
Governor
Gretchen Whitmer