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Subjective Probability
Bayesian probability ( or ) is an interpretation of the concept of probability, in which, instead of frequency or propensity of some phenomenon, probability is interpreted as reasonable expectation representing a state of knowledge or as quantification of a personal belief. The Bayesian interpretation of probability can be seen as an extension of propositional logic that enables reasoning with hypotheses; that is, with propositions whose truth or falsity is unknown. In the Bayesian view, a probability is assigned to a hypothesis, whereas under frequentist inference, a hypothesis is typically tested without being assigned a probability. Bayesian probability belongs to the category of evidential probabilities; to evaluate the probability of a hypothesis, the Bayesian probabilist specifies a prior probability. This, in turn, is then updated to a posterior probability in the light of new, relevant data (evidence). The Bayesian interpretation provides a standard set of procedures ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Interpretations
The word "probability" has been used in a variety of ways since it was first applied to the mathematical study of games of chance. Does probability measure the real, physical, tendency of something to occur, or is it a measure of how strongly one believes it will occur, or does it draw on both these elements? In answering such questions, mathematicians interpret the probability values of probability theory. There are two broad categories of probability interpretations which can be called "physical" and "evidential" probabilities. Physical probabilities, which are also called objective or frequency probability, frequency probabilities, are associated with random physical systems such as roulette wheels, rolling dice and radioactive atoms. In such systems, a given type of event (such as a yielding a six) tends to occur at a persistent rate, or "relative frequency", in a long run of trials. Physical probabilities either explain, or are invoked to explain, these stable frequencies. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution is a Function (mathematics), function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of possible events for an Experiment (probability theory), experiment. It is a mathematical description of a Randomness, random phenomenon in terms of its sample space and the Probability, probabilities of Event (probability theory), events (subsets of the sample space). For instance, if is used to denote the outcome of a coin toss ("the experiment"), then the probability distribution of would take the value 0.5 (1 in 2 or 1/2) for , and 0.5 for (assuming that fair coin, the coin is fair). More commonly, probability distributions are used to compare the relative occurrence of many different random values. Probability distributions can be defined in different ways and for discrete or for continuous variables. Distributions with special properties or for especially important applications are given specific names. Introduction A prob ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Celestial Mechanics
Celestial mechanics is the branch of astronomy that deals with the motions of objects in outer space. Historically, celestial mechanics applies principles of physics (classical mechanics) to astronomical objects, such as stars and planets, to produce ephemeris data. History Modern analytic celestial mechanics started with Isaac Newton's ''Principia'' (1687). The name celestial mechanics is more recent than that. Newton wrote that the field should be called "rational mechanics". The term "dynamics" came in a little later with Gottfried Leibniz, and over a century after Newton, Pierre-Simon Laplace introduced the term ''celestial mechanics''. Prior to Kepler, there was little connection between exact, quantitative prediction of planetary positions, using geometrical or numerical techniques, and contemporary discussions of the physical causes of the planets' motion. Laws of planetary motion Johannes Kepler was the first to closely integrate the predictive geometrical a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bernoulli Trial
In the theory of probability and statistics, a Bernoulli trial (or binomial trial) is a random experiment with exactly two possible outcomes, "success" and "failure", in which the probability of success is the same every time the experiment is conducted. It is named after Jacob Bernoulli, a 17th-century Swiss mathematician, who analyzed them in his ' (1713). The mathematical formalization and advanced formulation of the Bernoulli trial is known as the Bernoulli process. Since a Bernoulli trial has only two possible outcomes, it can be framed as a "yes or no" question. For example: *Is the top card of a shuffled deck an ace? *Was the newborn child a girl? (See human sex ratio.) Success and failure are in this context labels for the two outcomes, and should not be construed literally or as value judgments. More generally, given any probability space, for any event (set of outcomes), one can define a Bernoulli trial according to whether the event occurred or not (event or c ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Beta Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the beta distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions defined on the interval [0, 1] or (0, 1) in terms of two positive Statistical parameter, parameters, denoted by ''alpha'' (''α'') and ''beta'' (''β''), that appear as exponents of the variable and its complement to 1, respectively, and control the shape parameter, shape of the distribution. The beta distribution has been applied to model the behavior of random variables limited to intervals of finite length in a wide variety of disciplines. The beta distribution is a suitable model for the random behavior of percentages and proportions. In Bayesian inference, the beta distribution is the conjugate prior distribution, conjugate prior probability distribution for the Bernoulli distribution, Bernoulli, binomial distribution, binomial, negative binomial distribution, negative binomial, and geometric distribution, geometric distributions. The formulation of the beta dist ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
An Essay Towards Solving A Problem In The Doctrine Of Chances
"An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" is a work on the mathematical theory of probability by Thomas Bayes, published in 1763, two years after its author's death, and containing multiple amendments and additions due to his friend Richard Price. The title comes from the contemporary use of the phrase "doctrine of chances" to mean the theory of probability, which had been introduced via The Doctrine of Chances, the title of a book by Abraham de Moivre. Contemporary reprints of the essay carry a more specific and significant title: ''A Method of Calculating the Exact Probability of All Conclusions Founded on Induction''. The essay includes theorems of conditional probability which form the basis of what is now called Bayes's Theorem, together with a detailed treatment of the problem of setting a prior probability. Bayes supposed a sequence of independent experiments, each having as its outcome either success or failure, the probability of success being some nu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
De Finetti's Theorem
In probability theory, de Finetti's theorem states that exchangeable random variables, exchangeable observations are conditionally independent relative to some latent variable. An epistemic probability probability distribution, distribution could then be assigned to this variable. It is named in honor of Bruno de Finetti, and one of its uses is in providing a pragmatic approach to de Finetti's well-known dictum "Probability does not exist". For the special case of an exchangeable sequence of Bernoulli distribution, Bernoulli random variables it states that such a sequence is a "mixture distribution, mixture" of sequences of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) Bernoulli random variables. A sequence of random variables is called exchangeable if the joint distribution of the sequence is unchanged by any permutation of a finite set of indices. In general, while the variables of the exchangeable sequence are not ''themselves'' independent, only exchangeable, there is an '' ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Theory
Decision theory or the theory of rational choice is a branch of probability theory, probability, economics, and analytic philosophy that uses expected utility and probabilities, probability to model how individuals would behave Rationality, rationally under uncertainty. It differs from the Cognitive science, cognitive and Behavioural sciences, behavioral sciences in that it is mainly Prescriptive economics, prescriptive and concerned with identifying optimal decision, optimal decisions for a rational agent, rather than Descriptive economics, describing how people actually make decisions. Despite this, the field is important to the study of real human behavior by Social science, social scientists, as it lays the foundations to Mathematical model, mathematically model and analyze individuals in fields such as sociology, economics, criminology, cognitive science, moral philosophy and political science. History The roots of decision theory lie in probability theory, developed by Blai ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Dutch Book
In decision theory, economics, and probability theory, the Dutch book arguments are a set of results showing that agents must satisfy the axioms of rational choice to avoid a kind of self-contradiction called a Dutch book. A Dutch book, sometimes also called a money pump, is a set of bets that ensures a guaranteed loss, i.e. the gambler will lose money no matter what happens. A set of bets is called coherent if it cannot result in a Dutch book. The Dutch book arguments are used to explore degrees of certainty in beliefs, and demonstrate that rational bet-setters must be Bayesian; in other words, a rational bet-setter must assign event probabilities that behave according to the axioms of probability, and must have preferences that can be modeled using the von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms. In economics, they are used to model behavior by ruling out situations where agents "burn money" for no real reward. Models based on the assumption that actors are rational are called r ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cox's Theorem
Cox's theorem, named after the physicist Richard Threlkeld Cox, is a derivation of the laws of probability theory from a certain set of postulates. This derivation justifies the so-called "logical" interpretation of probability, as the laws of probability derived by Cox's theorem are applicable to any proposition. Logical (also known as objective Bayesian) probability is a type of Bayesian probability. Other forms of Bayesianism, such as the subjective interpretation, are given other justifications. Cox's assumptions Cox wanted his system to satisfy the following conditions: #Divisibility and comparability – The plausibility of a proposition is a real number and is dependent on information we have related to the proposition. #Common sense – Plausibilities should vary sensibly with the assessment of plausibilities in the model. #Consistency – If the plausibility of a proposition can be derived in many ways, all the results must be equal. The postu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Logic
Logic is the study of correct reasoning. It includes both formal and informal logic. Formal logic is the study of deductively valid inferences or logical truths. It examines how conclusions follow from premises based on the structure of arguments alone, independent of their topic and content. Informal logic is associated with informal fallacies, critical thinking, and argumentation theory. Informal logic examines arguments expressed in natural language whereas formal logic uses formal language. When used as a countable noun, the term "a logic" refers to a specific logical formal system that articulates a proof system. Logic plays a central role in many fields, such as philosophy, mathematics, computer science, and linguistics. Logic studies arguments, which consist of a set of premises that leads to a conclusion. An example is the argument from the premises "it's Sunday" and "if it's Sunday then I don't have to work" leading to the conclusion "I don't have to wor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Principle Of Bivalence
In logic, the semantic principle (or law) of bivalence states that every declarative sentence expressing a proposition (of a theory under inspection) has exactly one truth value, either true or false. A logic satisfying this principle is called a two-valued logic or bivalent logic. In formal logic, the principle of bivalence becomes a property that a semantics may or may not possess. It is not the same as the law of excluded middle, however, and a semantics may satisfy that law without being bivalent. The principle of bivalence is studied in philosophical logic to address the question of which natural-language statements have a well-defined truth value. Sentences that predict events in the future, and sentences that seem open to interpretation, are particularly difficult for philosophers who hold that the principle of bivalence applies to all declarative natural-language statements. Many-valued logics formalize ideas that a realistic characterization of the notion of conseq ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
