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Probabilistic Forecasting
Probabilistic forecasting summarizes what is known about, or opinions about, future events. In contrast to single-valued forecasts (such as forecasting that the maximum temperature at a given site on a given day will be 23 degrees Celsius, or that the result in a given football match will be a no-score draw), probabilistic forecasts assign a probability to each of a number of different outcomes, and the complete set of probabilities represents a probability forecast. Thus, probabilistic forecasting is a type of probabilistic classification. Weather forecasting represents a service in which probability forecasts are sometimes published for public consumption, although it may also be used by weather forecasters as the basis of a simpler type of forecast. For example, forecasters may combine their own experience together with computer-generated probability forecasts to construct a forecast of the type "we expect heavy rainfall". Sports betting is another field of application where prob ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good practice to indicate the degree of uncertai ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Solar Power Forecasting
Solar power forecasting is the process of gathering and analyzing data in order to predict solar power generation on various time horizons with the goal to mitigate the impact of solar intermittency. Solar power forecasts are used for efficient management of the electric grid and for power trading. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. The intermittency issue has been successfully addressed and mitigated by solar forecasting in many cases. Information used for the solar power forecast usually includes the Sun´s path, the atmospheric conditions, the scattering of light and the characteristics of the solar energy plant. Generally, the solar forecasting techniques depend on the forecasting horizon * ''Nowcasting'' (forecasting 3–4 hours ahead), * ''Short-term forecasting'' (up to seven days ahead) and * ''Long-term forecasti ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Statistical Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Forecast Skill
In the fields of forecasting and prediction, forecast skill or prediction skill is any measure of the accuracy and/or degree of association of prediction to an observation or estimate of the actual value of what is being predicted (formally, the predictand); it may be quantified as a skill score. In meteorology, more specifically in weather forecasting, skill measures the superiority of a forecast over a simple historical baseline of past observations. The same forecast methodology can result in different skill scores at different places, or even in the same place for different seasons (e.g., spring weather might be driven by erratic local conditions, whereas winter cold snaps might correlate with observable polar winds). Weather forecast skill is often presented in the form of seasonal geographical maps. Forecast skill for single-value forecasts (i.e., time series of a scalar quantity) is commonly represented in terms of metrics such as correlation, root mean squared error, mean ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered a good practice to indicate the degree of uncertai ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Energy Forecasting
Energy forecasting includes forecasting demand ( load) and price of electricity, fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, coal) and renewable energy sources (RES; hydro, wind, solar). Forecasting can be both expected price value and probabilistic forecasting. Background When electricity sectors were regulated, utility monopolies used short-term load forecasts to ensure the reliability of supply and long-term demand forecasts as the basis for planning and investing in new capacity. However, since the early 1990s, the process of deregulation and the introduction of competitive electricity markets have been reshaping the landscape of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. In many countries worldwide, electricity is now traded under market rules using spot and derivative contracts. At the corporate level, electricity load and price forecasts have become a fundamental input to energy companies’ decision making mechanisms. The costs of over- or undercontrac ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Consensus Forecast
Used in a number of sciences, ranging from econometrics to meteorology, consensus forecasts are predictions of the future that are created by combining together several separate forecasts which have often been created using different methodologies. Also known as ''combining forecasts'', ''forecast averaging'' or ''model averaging'' (in econometrics and statistics) and ''committee machines'', ''ensemble averaging'' or ''expert aggregation'' (in machine learning). Applications can range from forecasting the weather to predicting the annual Gross Domestic Product of a country or the number of cars a company or an individual dealer is likely to sell in a year. While forecasts are often made for future values of a time series, they can also be for one-off events such as the outcome of a presidential election or a football match. Background Forecasting plays a key role in any organisation's planning process as it provides insight into uncertainty. Through simulation, one will be able t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Brier Score
The Brier Score is a ''strictly proper score function'' or ''strictly proper scoring rule'' that measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. For unidimensional predictions, it is strictly equivalent to the mean squared error as applied to predicted probabilities. The Brier score is applicable to tasks in which predictions must assign probabilities to a set of mutually exclusive discrete outcomes or classes. The set of possible outcomes can be either binary or categorical in nature, and the probabilities assigned to this set of outcomes must sum to one (where each individual probability is in the range of 0 to 1). It was proposed by Glenn W. Brier in 1950. The Brier score can be thought of as a cost function. More precisely, across all items i\in in a set of ''N'' predictions, the Brier score measures the mean squared difference between: * The predicted probability assigned to the possible outcomes for item ''i'' * The actual outcome o_i Therefore, the ''lower'' the B ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Journal Of The American Statistical Association
The ''Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA)'' is the primary journal published by the American Statistical Association, the main professional body for statisticians in the United States. It is published four times a year in March, June, September and December by Taylor & Francis, Ltd on behalf of the American Statistical Association. As a statistics journal it publishes articles primarily focused on the application of statistics, statistical theory and methods in economic, social, physical, engineering, and health sciences. The journal also includes reviews of academic books which are important to the advancement of the field. It had an impact factor of 2.063 in 2010, tenth highest in the "Statistics and Probability" category of '' Journal Citation Reports''. In a 2003 survey of statisticians, the ''Journal of the American Statistical Association'' was ranked first, among all journals, for "Applications of Statistics" and second (after ''Annals of Statist ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Continuous Ranked Probability Score
Continuity or continuous may refer to: Mathematics * Continuity (mathematics), the opposing concept to discreteness; common examples include ** Continuous probability distribution or random variable in probability and statistics ** Continuous game, a generalization of games used in game theory ** Law of Continuity, a heuristic principle of Gottfried Leibniz * Continuous function, in particular: ** Continuity (topology), a generalization to functions between topological spaces ** Scott continuity, for functions between posets ** Continuity (set theory), for functions between ordinals ** Continuity (category theory), for functors ** Graph continuity, for payoff functions in game theory * Continuity theorem may refer to one of two results: ** Lévy's continuity theorem, on random variables ** Kolmogorov continuity theorem, on stochastic processes * In geometry: ** Parametric continuity, for parametrised curves ** Geometric continuity, a concept primarily applied to the conic se ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Scoring Rule
In decision theory, a scoring rule provides a summary measure for the evaluation of probabilistic predictions or forecasts. It is applicable to tasks in which predictions assign probabilities to events, i.e. one issues a probability distribution F as prediction. This includes probabilistic classification of a set of mutually exclusive outcomes or classes. On the other side, a scoring function provides a summary measure for the evaluation of point predictions, i.e. one predicts a property or functional T(F), like the expectation or the median. Scoring rules and scoring functions can be thought of as "cost function" or "loss function". They are evaluated as empirical mean of a given sample, simply called score. Scores of different predictions or models can then be compared to conclude which model is best. If a cost is levied in proportion to a proper scoring rule, the minimal expected cost corresponds to reporting the true set of probabilities. Proper scoring rules are used in ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Annual Energy Outlook
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA programs cover data on coal, petroleum, natural gas, electric, renewable and nuclear energy. EIA is part of the U.S. Department of Energy. Background The Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 established EIA as the primary federal government authority on energy statistics and analysis, building upon systems and organizations first established in 1974 following the oil market disruption of 1973. EIA conducts a comprehensive data collection program that covers the full spectrum of energy sources, end uses, and energy flows; generates short- and long-term domestic and international energy projections; and performs informative energy analyses. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |