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Portmanteau Test
A portmanteau test is a type of statistical hypothesis test in which the null hypothesis is well specified, but the alternative hypothesis is more loosely specified. Tests constructed in this context can have the property of being at least moderately powerful against a wide range of departures from the null hypothesis. Thus, in applied statistics, a portmanteau test provides a reasonable way of proceeding as a general check of a model's match to a dataset where there are many different ways in which the model may depart from the underlying data generating process. The use of such tests avoids having to be very specific about the particular type of departure being tested. Examples In time series analysis, two well-known versions of a portmanteau test are available for testing for autocorrelation in the residuals of a model: it tests whether any of a group of autocorrelations of the residual time series are different from zero. This test is the Ljung–Box test, which is an ...
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Statistical Hypothesis Test
A statistical hypothesis test is a method of statistical inference used to decide whether the data provide sufficient evidence to reject a particular hypothesis. A statistical hypothesis test typically involves a calculation of a test statistic. Then a decision is made, either by comparing the test statistic to a critical value or equivalently by evaluating a ''p''-value computed from the test statistic. Roughly 100 specialized statistical tests are in use and noteworthy. History While hypothesis testing was popularized early in the 20th century, early forms were used in the 1700s. The first use is credited to John Arbuthnot (1710), followed by Pierre-Simon Laplace (1770s), in analyzing the human sex ratio at birth; see . Choice of null hypothesis Paul Meehl has argued that the epistemological importance of the choice of null hypothesis has gone largely unacknowledged. When the null hypothesis is predicted by theory, a more precise experiment will be a more severe test of t ...
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Biometrika
''Biometrika'' is a peer-reviewed scientific journal published by Oxford University Press for the Biometrika Trust. The editor-in-chief is Paul Fearnhead (Lancaster University). The principal focus of this journal is theoretical statistics. It was established in 1901 and originally appeared quarterly. It changed to three issues per year in 1977 but returned to quarterly publication in 1992. History ''Biometrika'' was established in 1901 by Francis Galton, Karl Pearson, and Raphael Weldon to promote the study of biometrics. The history of ''Biometrika'' is covered by Cox (2001). The name of the journal was chosen by Pearson, but Francis Edgeworth insisted that it be spelt with a "k" and not a "c". Since the 1930s, it has been a journal for statistical theory and methodology. Galton's role in the journal was essentially that of a patron and the journal was run by Pearson and Weldon and after Weldon's death in 1906 by Pearson alone until he died in 1936. In the early days, the Ameri ...
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Time Series Statistical Tests
Time is the continuous progression of existence that occurs in an apparently irreversible succession from the past, through the present, and into the future. It is a component quantity of various measurements used to sequence events, to compare the duration of events (or the intervals between them), and to quantify rates of change of quantities in material reality or in the conscious experience. Time is often referred to as a fourth dimension, along with three spatial dimensions. Time is one of the seven fundamental physical quantities in both the International System of Units (SI) and International System of Quantities. The SI base unit of time is the second, which is defined by measuring the electronic transition frequency of caesium atoms. General relativity is the primary framework for understanding how spacetime works. Through advances in both theoretical and experimental investigations of spacetime, it has been shown that time can be distorted and dilated, particularl ...
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Independent And Dependent Variables
A variable is considered dependent if it depends on (or is hypothesized to depend on) an independent variable. Dependent variables are studied under the supposition or demand that they depend, by some law or rule (e.g., by a mathematical function), on the values of other variables. Independent variables, on the other hand, are not seen as depending on any other variable in the scope of the experiment in question. Rather, they are controlled by the experimenter. In pure mathematics In mathematics, a function is a rule for taking an input (in the simplest case, a number or set of numbers)Carlson, Robert. A concrete introduction to real analysis. CRC Press, 2006. p.183 and providing an output (which may also be a number). A symbol that stands for an arbitrary input is called an independent variable, while a symbol that stands for an arbitrary output is called a dependent variable. The most common symbol for the input is , and the most common symbol for the output is ; the function ...
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Journal Of Econometrics
The ''Journal of Econometrics'' is a monthly peer-reviewed academic journal covering econometrics. It was established in 1973. The editors-in-chief are Michael Jansson (University of California Berkeley) and Aureo de Paula (University College London). According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2023 impact factor of 9.9. The journal covers work dealing with estimation and other methodological aspects of the application of statistical inference to economic data, as well as papers dealing with the application of econometric techniques to economics Economics () is a behavioral science that studies the Production (economics), production, distribution (economics), distribution, and Consumption (economics), consumption of goods and services. Economics focuses on the behaviour and interac .... Unusually among journals the title of Fellow of Journal of Econometrics is offered to anyone publishing four or more articles in the Journal.Maasoumi, E. (1992). Fel ...
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ARIMA
Arima, officially The Royal Chartered Borough of Arima is the easternmost and second largest in area of the three boroughs of Trinidad and Tobago. It is geographically adjacent to Sangre Grande and Arouca at the south central foothills of the Northern Range. To the south is the Caroni–Arena Dam. Coterminous with Town of Arima since 1888, the borough of Arima is the fourth-largest municipality in population in the country (after Port of Spain, Chaguanas and San Fernando). The census estimated it had 33,606 residents in 2011. In 1887, the town petitioned Queen Victoria for municipal status as part of the celebration for the Golden Jubilee of Queen Victoria. This was granted in the following year, and Arima became a Royal Borough on 1 August 1888. Historically the third-largest town of Trinidad and Tobago, Arima is fourth since Chaguanas became the largest town in the country. History Contrary to the belief that the city is named after the Arawak word for "water", roote ...
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Journal Of The American Statistical Association
The ''Journal of the American Statistical Association'' is a quarterly peer-reviewed scientific journal published by Taylor & Francis on behalf of the American Statistical Association. It covers work primarily focused on the application of statistics, statistical theory and methods in economic, social, physical, engineering, and health sciences. The journal also includes reviews of books which are relevant to the field. The journal was established in 1888 as the ''Publications of the American Statistical Association''. It was renamed ''Quarterly Publications of the American Statistical Association'' in 1912, obtaining its current title in 1922. Reception According to the ''Journal Citation Reports ''Journal Citation Reports'' (''JCR'') is an annual publication by Clarivate. It has been integrated with the Web of Science and is accessed from the Web of Science Core Collection. It provides information about academic journals in the natur ...'', the journal has a 2023 impac ...
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Ljung–Box Test
The Ljung–Box test (named for Greta M. Ljung and George E. P. Box) is a type of statistical test of whether any of a group of autocorrelations of a time series are different from zero. Instead of testing randomness at each distinct lag, it tests the "overall" randomness based on a number of lags, and is therefore a portmanteau test. This test is sometimes known as the Ljung–Box Q test, and it is closely connected to the Box–Pierce test (which is named after George E. P. Box and David A. Pierce). In fact, the Ljung–Box test statistic was described explicitly in the paper that led to the use of the Box–Pierce statistic, and from which that statistic takes its name. The Box–Pierce test statistic is a simplified version of the Ljung–Box statistic for which subsequent simulation studies have shown poor performance. The Ljung–Box test is widely applied in econometrics and other applications of time series analysis. A similar assessment can be also carried out with the ...
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Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis (often denoted ''H''0) is the claim in scientific research that the effect being studied does not exist. The null hypothesis can also be described as the hypothesis in which no relationship exists between two sets of data or variables being analyzed. If the null hypothesis is true, any experimentally observed effect is due to chance alone, hence the term "null". In contrast with the null hypothesis, an alternative hypothesis (often denoted ''H''A or ''H''1) is developed, which claims that a relationship does exist between two variables. Basic definitions The null hypothesis and the ''alternative hypothesis'' are types of conjectures used in statistical tests to make statistical inferences, which are formal methods of reaching conclusions and separating scientific claims from statistical noise. The statement being tested in a test of statistical significance is called the null hypothesis. The test of significance is designed to assess the strength of the e ...
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Time Series
In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart). Time series are used in statistics, signal processing, pattern recognition, econometrics, mathematical finance, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, electroencephalography, control engineering, astronomy, communications engineering, and largely in any domain of applied science and engineering which involves temporal measurements. Time series ''analysis'' comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series ''f ...
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