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Overfit
mathematical modeling, overfitting is "the production of an analysis that corresponds too closely or exactly to a particular set of data, and may therefore fail to fit to additional data or predict future observations reliably". An overfitted model is a mathematical model that contains more parameters than can be justified by the data. In the special case where the model consists of a polynomial function, these parameters represent the degree of a polynomial. The essence of overfitting is to have unknowingly extracted some of the residual variation (i.e., the noise) as if that variation represented underlying model structure. Underfitting occurs when a mathematical model cannot adequately capture the underlying structure of the data. An under-fitted model is a model where some parameters or terms that would appear in a correctly specified model are missing. Underfitting would occur, for example, when fitting a linear model to nonlinear data. Such a model will tend to have po ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Overfitting
In mathematical modeling, overfitting is "the production of an analysis that corresponds too closely or exactly to a particular set of data, and may therefore fail to fit to additional data or predict future observations reliably". An overfitted model is a mathematical model that contains more parameters than can be justified by the data. In the special case where the model consists of a polynomial function, these parameters represent the degree of a polynomial. The essence of overfitting is to have unknowingly extracted some of the residual variation (i.e., the Statistical noise, noise) as if that variation represented underlying model structure. Underfitting occurs when a mathematical model cannot adequately capture the underlying structure of the data. An under-fitted model is a model where some parameters or terms that would appear in a correctly specified model are missing. Underfitting would occur, for example, when fitting a linear model to nonlinear data. Such a model ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Early Stopping
In machine learning, early stopping is a form of Regularization (mathematics), regularization used to avoid overfitting when training a model with an iterative method, such as gradient descent. Such methods update the model to make it better fit the Training, validation, and test data sets, training data with each iteration. Up to a point, this improves the model's performance on data outside of the training set (e.g., the validation set). Past that point, however, improving the model's fit to the training data comes at the expense of increased generalization error. Early stopping rules provide guidance as to how many iterations can be run before the learner begins to over-fit. Early stopping rules have been employed in many different machine learning methods, with varying amounts of theoretical foundation. Background This section presents some of the basic machine-learning concepts required for a description of early stopping methods. Overfitting Machine learning algorithms tra ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Regularization (mathematics)
In mathematics, statistics, Mathematical finance, finance, and computer science, particularly in machine learning and inverse problems, regularization is a process that converts the Problem solving, answer to a problem to a simpler one. It is often used in solving ill-posed problems or to prevent overfitting. Although regularization procedures can be divided in many ways, the following delineation is particularly helpful: * Explicit regularization is regularization whenever one explicitly adds a term to the optimization problem. These terms could be Prior probability, priors, penalties, or constraints. Explicit regularization is commonly employed with ill-posed optimization problems. The regularization term, or penalty, imposes a cost on the optimization function to make the optimal solution unique. * Implicit regularization is all other forms of regularization. This includes, for example, early stopping, using a robust loss function, and discarding outliers. Implicit regularizat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Training Data
In machine learning, a common task is the study and construction of algorithms that can learn from and make predictions on data. Such algorithms function by making data-driven predictions or decisions, through building a mathematical model from input data. These input data used to build the model are usually divided into multiple data sets. In particular, three data sets are commonly used in different stages of the creation of the model: training, validation, and test sets. The model is initially fit on a training data set, which is a set of examples used to fit the parameters (e.g. weights of connections between neurons in artificial neural networks) of the model. The model (e.g. a naive Bayes classifier) is trained on the training data set using a supervised learning method, for example using optimization methods such as gradient descent or stochastic gradient descent. In practice, the training data set often consists of pairs of an input vector (or scalar) and the correspondi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cross-validation (statistics)
Cross-validation, sometimes called rotation estimation or out-of-sample testing, is any of various similar model validation techniques for assessing how the results of a statistics, statistical analysis will Generalization error, generalize to an independent data set. Cross-validation includes Resampling (statistics), resampling and sample splitting methods that use different portions of the data to test and train a model on different iterations. It is often used in settings where the goal is prediction, and one wants to estimate how accuracy, accurately a predictive modelling, predictive model will perform in practice. It can also be used to assess the quality of a fitted model and the stability of its parameters. In a prediction problem, a model is usually given a dataset of ''known data'' on which training is run (''training dataset''), and a dataset of ''unknown data'' (or ''first seen'' data) against which the model is tested (called the validation set, validation dataset o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Linear Regression
In statistics, linear regression is a statistical model, model that estimates the relationship between a Scalar (mathematics), scalar response (dependent variable) and one or more explanatory variables (regressor or independent variable). A model with exactly one explanatory variable is a ''simple linear regression''; a model with two or more explanatory variables is a multiple linear regression. This term is distinct from multivariate linear regression, which predicts multiple correlated dependent variables rather than a single dependent variable. In linear regression, the relationships are modeled using linear predictor functions whose unknown model parameters are estimation theory, estimated from the data. Most commonly, the conditional mean of the response given the values of the explanatory variables (or predictors) is assumed to be an affine function of those values; less commonly, the conditional median or some other quantile is used. Like all forms of regression analysis, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Principle Of Parsimony
In philosophy, Occam's razor (also spelled Ockham's razor or Ocham's razor; ) is the problem-solving principle that recommends searching for explanations constructed with the smallest possible set of elements. It is also known as the principle of parsimony or the law of parsimony (). Attributed to William of Ockham, a 14th-century English philosopher and theologian, it is frequently cited as , which translates as "Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity", although Occam never used these exact words. Popularly, the principle is sometimes paraphrased as "of two competing theories, the simpler explanation of an entity is to be preferred." This philosophical razor advocates that when presented with competing hypotheses about the same prediction and both hypotheses have equal explanatory power, one should prefer the hypothesis that requires the fewest assumptions, and that this is not meant to be a way of choosing between hypotheses that make different predictions. Similarly ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
One In Ten Rule
In statistics, the one in ten rule is a rule of thumb for how many predictor parameters can be estimated from data when doing regression analysis (in particular proportional hazards models in survival analysis and logistic regression) while keeping the risk of overfitting and finding spurious correlations low. The rule states that one predictive variable can be studied for every ten events. For logistic regression the number of events is given by the size of the smallest of the outcome categories, and for survival analysis it is given by the number of uncensored events. In other words: for each feature we need 10 observations/labels. For example, if a sample of 200 patients is studied and 20 patients die during the study (so that 180 patients survive), the one in ten rule implies that two pre-specified predictors can reliably be fitted to the total data. Similarly, if 100 patients die during the study (so that 100 patients survive), ten pre-specified predictors can be fitted re ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Logistic Regression
In statistics, a logistic model (or logit model) is a statistical model that models the logit, log-odds of an event as a linear function (calculus), linear combination of one or more independent variables. In regression analysis, logistic regression (or logit regression) estimation theory, estimates the parameters of a logistic model (the coefficients in the linear or non linear combinations). In binary logistic regression there is a single binary variable, binary dependent variable, coded by an indicator variable, where the two values are labeled "0" and "1", while the independent variables can each be a binary variable (two classes, coded by an indicator variable) or a continuous variable (any real value). The corresponding probability of the value labeled "1" can vary between 0 (certainly the value "0") and 1 (certainly the value "1"), hence the labeling; the function that converts log-odds to probability is the logistic function, hence the name. The unit of measurement for the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Dropout (neural Networks)
Dropout and dilution (also called DropConnect) are regularization techniques for reducing overfitting in artificial neural networks by preventing complex co-adaptations on training data. They are an efficient way of performing model averaging with neural networks. ''Dilution'' refers to randomly decreasing weights towards zero, while ''dropout'' refers to randomly setting the outputs of hidden neurons to zero. Both are usually performed during the training process of a neural network, not during inference. Types and uses Dilution is usually split in ''weak dilution'' and ''strong dilution''. Weak dilution describes the process in which the finite fraction of removed connections is small, and strong dilution refers to when this fraction is large. There is no clear distinction on where the limit between strong and weak dilution is, and often the distinction is dependent on the precedent of a specific use-case and has implications for how to solve for exact solutions. Sometimes d ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Pruning (algorithm)
Pruning is a data compression technique in machine learning and search algorithms that reduces the size of decision trees by removing sections of the tree that are non-critical and redundant to classify instances. Pruning reduces the complexity of the final classifier, and hence improves predictive accuracy by the reduction of overfitting. One of the questions that arises in a decision tree algorithm is the optimal size of the final tree. A tree that is too large risks overfitting the training data and poorly generalizing to new samples. A small tree might not capture important structural information about the sample space. However, it is hard to tell when a tree algorithm should stop because it is impossible to tell if the addition of a single extra node will dramatically decrease error. This problem is known as the horizon effect. A common strategy is to grow the tree until each node contains a small number of instances then use pruning to remove nodes that do not provide addi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Coefficient Of Determination
In statistics, the coefficient of determination, denoted ''R''2 or ''r''2 and pronounced "R squared", is the proportion of the variation in the dependent variable that is predictable from the independent variable(s). It is a statistic used in the context of statistical models whose main purpose is either the prediction of future outcomes or the testing of hypotheses, on the basis of other related information. It provides a measure of how well observed outcomes are replicated by the model, based on the proportion of total variation of outcomes explained by the model. There are several definitions of ''R''2 that are only sometimes equivalent. In simple linear regression (which includes an intercept), ''r''2 is simply the square of the sample ''correlation coefficient'' (''r''), between the observed outcomes and the observed predictor values. If additional regressors are included, ''R''2 is the square of the '' coefficient of multiple correlation''. In both such cases, the coeffi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
