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Spurious Correlation
In statistics, a spurious relationship or spurious correlation is a mathematical relationship in which two or more events or variables are associated but '' not'' causally related, due to either coincidence or the presence of a certain third, unseen factor (referred to as a "common response variable", "confounding factor", or " lurking variable"). Examples An example of a spurious relationship can be found in the time-series literature, where a spurious regression is a regression that provides misleading statistical evidence of a linear relationship between independent non-stationary variables. In fact, the non-stationarity may be due to the presence of a unit root in both variables. In particular, any two nominal economic variables are likely to be correlated with each other, even when neither has a causal effect on the other, because each equals a real variable times the price level, and the common presence of the price level in the two data series imparts correlation ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Comparison Confounder Mediator
Comparison or comparing is the act of evaluating two or more things by determining the relevant, comparable characteristics of each thing, and then determining which characteristics of each are similar to the other, which are different, and to what degree. Where characteristics are different, the differences may then be evaluated to determine which thing is best suited for a particular purpose. The description of similarities and differences found between the two things is also called a comparison. Comparison can take many distinct forms, varying by field: To compare things, they must have characteristics that are similar enough in relevant ways to merit comparison. If two things are too different to compare in a useful way, an attempt to compare them is colloquially referred to in English as "comparing apples and oranges." Comparison is widely used in society, in science and in the arts. General usage Comparison is a natural activity, which even animals engage in when deci ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Washington Redskins
The Washington Commanders are a professional American football team based in the Washington metropolitan area. The Commanders compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member club of the league's National Football Conference (NFC) East division. The team plays its home games at FedExField in Landover, Maryland; its headquarters and training facility are in Ashburn, Virginia. The team has played more than 1,000 games and is one of only five in the NFL with more than 600 total wins. Washington was among the first NFL franchises with a fight song, " Hail to the Commanders” (formerly “Hail to the Redskins” from 1937–2019), which is played by their marching band after every touchdown scored by the team at home. The franchise is valued by ''Forbes'' at 5.6 billion, making them the league's sixth-most valuable team . The team was founded in 1932 as the Boston Braves, changing its name to the Redskins the following year before relocating to Washington ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Correlation
In statistics, correlation or dependence is any statistical relationship, whether causal or not, between two random variables or bivariate data. Although in the broadest sense, "correlation" may indicate any type of association, in statistics it usually refers to the degree to which a pair of variables are '' linearly'' related. Familiar examples of dependent phenomena include the correlation between the height of parents and their offspring, and the correlation between the price of a good and the quantity the consumers are willing to purchase, as it is depicted in the so-called demand curve. Correlations are useful because they can indicate a predictive relationship that can be exploited in practice. For example, an electrical utility may produce less power on a mild day based on the correlation between electricity demand and weather. In this example, there is a causal relationship, because extreme weather causes people to use more electricity for heating or cooling. H ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Mediation (statistics)
In statistics, a mediation model seeks to identify and explain the mechanism or process that underlies an observed relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable via the inclusion of a third hypothetical variable, known as a mediator variable (also a mediating variable, intermediary variable, or intervening variable). Rather than a direct causal relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable, a mediation model proposes that the independent variable influences the mediator variable, which in turn influences the dependent variable. Thus, the mediator variable serves to clarify the nature of the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. Mediation analyses are employed to understand a known relationship by exploring the underlying mechanism or process by which one variable influences another variable through a mediator variable.Cohen, J.; Cohen, P.; West, S. G.; Aiken, L. S. (2003) ''Applied multiple regression/co ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Experimental Techniques
The design of experiments (DOE, DOX, or experimental design) is the design of any task that aims to describe and explain the variation of information under conditions that are hypothesized to reflect the variation. The term is generally associated with experiments in which the design introduces conditions that directly affect the variation, but may also refer to the design of quasi-experiments, in which natural conditions that influence the variation are selected for observation. In its simplest form, an experiment aims at predicting the outcome by introducing a change of the preconditions, which is represented by one or more independent variables, also referred to as "input variables" or "predictor variables." The change in one or more independent variables is generally hypothesized to result in a change in one or more dependent variables, also referred to as "output variables" or "response variables." The experimental design may also identify control variables that must be h ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Type I Error
In statistical hypothesis testing, a type I error is the mistaken rejection of an actually true null hypothesis (also known as a "false positive" finding or conclusion; example: "an innocent person is convicted"), while a type II error is the failure to reject a null hypothesis that is actually false (also known as a "false negative" finding or conclusion; example: "a guilty person is not convicted"). Much of statistical theory revolves around the minimization of one or both of these errors, though the complete elimination of either is a statistical impossibility if the outcome is not determined by a known, observable causal process. By selecting a low threshold (cut-off) value and modifying the alpha (α) level, the quality of the hypothesis test can be increased. The knowledge of type I errors and type II errors is widely used in medical science, biometrics and computer science. Intuitively, type I errors can be thought of as errors of ''commission'', i.e. the researcher unl ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
_-_Galton_1889_diagram.png "Click for more on -> Regression To The Mean") |
Regression To The Mean
In statistics, regression toward the mean (also called reversion to the mean, and reversion to mediocrity) is the fact that if one sample of a random variable is extreme, the next sampling of the same random variable is likely to be closer to its mean. Furthermore, when many random variables are sampled and the most extreme results are intentionally picked out, it refers to the fact that (in many cases) a second sampling of these picked-out variables will result in "less extreme" results, closer to the initial mean of all of the variables. Mathematically, the strength of this "regression" effect is dependent on whether or not all of the random variables are drawn from the same distribution, or if there are genuine differences in the underlying distributions for each random variable. In the first case, the "regression" effect is statistically likely to occur, but in the second case, it may occur less strongly or not at all. Regression toward the mean is thus a useful concept to ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Super Bowl Indicator
The Super Bowl Indicator is a spurious correlation that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in 1978 when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference The National Football Conference (NFC) is one of the two conferences of the National Football League (NFL), the highest professional level of American football in the United States. The NFC and its counterpart, the American Football Conference ... (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market). As of January 2022, the predictor has been right 41 out of 55 games, a 75% success rate. Without retrospective predictions, i.e. ' ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Super Bowl
The Super Bowl is the annual final playoff game of the National Football League (NFL) to determine the league champion. It has served as the final game of every NFL season since 1966, replacing the NFL Championship Game. Since 2022, the game is played on the second Sunday in February. Prior Super Bowls were played on Sundays in early to mid-January from 1967 to 1978, late January from 1979 to 2003, and the first Sunday of February from 2004 to 2021. Winning teams are awarded the Vince Lombardi Trophy, named for the coach who won the first two Super Bowls. Due to the NFL restricting use of its "Super Bowl" trademark, it is frequently referred to as the "big game" or other generic terms by non-sponsoring corporations. The day the game is played is often referred to as " Super Bowl Sunday" or simply "Super Sunday". The game was created as part of a 1966 merger agreement between the NFL and the competing American Football League (AFL) to have their best teams compete for a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Leonard Koppett
Leonard Koppett (September 15, 1923 – June 22, 2003) was an American sportswriter. Born in Moscow as Leonard Kopeliovich, Koppett moved with his family from Moscow, Russia to the United States when he was five years old. They lived in The Bronx, New York, a block away from Yankee Stadium. Koppett served in the United States Army before graduating from Columbia University in 1946. He then worked as a reporter and columnist for the ''New York Herald Tribune'', the '' New York Post'', '' The New York Times'', the '' Peninsula Times Tribune'', and '' The Sporting News'', and authored 22 books on sports. He also published a number of magazine articles. Best known were his works on baseball: ''Concise History of Major League Baseball'' (1998, updated through 2004) and ''The Thinking Fan's Guide to Baseball'' (originally titled ''A Thinking Man's Guide to Baseball'', 1967, renamed for gender neutrality and updated several times through 2004) are considered definitive works on ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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National Football League
The National Football League (NFL) is a professional American football league that consists of 32 teams, divided equally between the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC). The NFL is one of the major professional sports leagues in the United States and Canada and the highest professional level of American football in the world. Each NFL season begins with a three-week preseason in August, followed by the 18-week regular season which runs from early September to early January, with each team playing 17 games and having one bye week. Following the conclusion of the regular season, seven teams from each conference (four division winners and three wild card teams) advance to the playoffs, a single-elimination tournament that culminates in the Super Bowl, which is contested in February and is played between the AFC and NFC conference champions. The league is headquartered in New York City. The NFL was formed in 1920 as the Ameri ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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Chicago Tribune
The ''Chicago Tribune'' is a daily newspaper based in Chicago, Illinois, United States, owned by Tribune Publishing. Founded in 1847, and formerly self-styled as the "World's Greatest Newspaper" (a slogan for which WGN radio and television are named), it remains the most-read daily newspaper in the Chicago metropolitan area and the Great Lakes region. It had the sixth-highest circulation for American newspapers in 2017. In the 1850s, under Joseph Medill, the ''Chicago Tribune'' became closely associated with the Illinois politician Abraham Lincoln, and the Republican Party's progressive wing. In the 20th century under Medill's grandson, Robert R. McCormick, it achieved a reputation as a crusading paper with a decidedly more American-conservative anti-New Deal outlook, and its writing reached other markets through family and corporate relationships at the ''New York Daily News'' and the '' Washington Times-Herald.'' The 1960s saw its corporate parent owner, Tribune Company ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |