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Mackerras Pendulum
The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage-point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Two-party-preferred percentage The two-party preferred (2PP) method of prediction attempts to estimate the flow of second and subsequent preferences from smaller parties in order of their expect ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Psephology
Psephology (; from Greek el, ψῆφος, psephos, pebble, label=none) or political analysis is a branch of political science, the "quantitative analysis of elections and balloting". As such, psephology attempts to explain elections using the scientific method. Psephology is related to political forecasting. Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 in the United Kingdom by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) after he was asked by his friend R. B. McCallum for a word to describe the study of elections; first written use in 1952. [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Australian Labor Party
The Australian Labor Party (ALP), also simply known as Labor, is the major centre-left political party in Australia, one of two major parties in Australian politics, along with the centre-right Liberal Party of Australia. The party forms the federal government since being elected in the 2022 election. The ALP is a federal party, with political branches in each state and territory. They are currently in government in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, the Australian Capital Territory, and the Northern Territory. They are currently in opposition in New South Wales and Tasmania. It is the oldest political party in Australia, being established on 8 May 1901 at Parliament House, Melbourne, the meeting place of the first federal Parliament. The ALP was not founded as a federal party until after the first sitting of the Australian parliament in 1901. It is regarded as descended from labour parties founded in the various Australian colonies by the emergin ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
1966 Australian Federal Election
The 1966 Australian federal election was held in Australia on 26 November 1966. All 124 seats in the House of Representatives were up for election. The incumbent Liberal–Country coalition government, led by Prime Minister Harold Holt, won an increased majority over the opposition Labor Party, led by Arthur Calwell. This was the first and only time that a Federal Government won an eighth consecutive term in office. Issues Sir Robert Menzies had retired from politics in January; his successor, former Treasurer Harold Holt, was stylish, debonair and popular with the electorate, contrasting sharply with the much rougher figure of Opposition Leader Arthur Calwell, who had already lost two elections. Calwell also came across poorly on television compared to Holt, looking and sounding older than his 70 years, and also held to the beliefs that had been central to the previous Labor Government of 1941–1949, many of which were seen as being long outdated in 1966; for example, h ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Liberal Party Of Australia
The Liberal Party of Australia is a centre-right political party in Australia, one of the two major parties in Australian politics, along with the centre-left Australian Labor Party. It was founded in 1944 as the successor to the United Australia Party and has since become the most successful political party in Australia's history. The Liberal Party is the dominant partner in the Coalition with the National Party of Australia. At the federal level, the Liberal Party and its predecessors have been in coalition with the National Party since the 1920s. The Coalition was most recently in power from the 2013 federal election to the 2022 federal election, forming the Abbott (2013–2015), Turnbull (2015–2018) and Morrison (2018–2022) governments. After the Liberal Party lost the 2022 Australian federal election, Morrison announced he would step down as leader of the Liberal Party. Deputy Leader Josh Frydenberg also lost his seat, making senior Liberal MP Peter Dutton ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
1983 Australian Federal Election
The 1983 Australian federal election was held in Australia on 5 March 1983. All 125 seats in the House of Representatives and all 64 seats in the Senate were up for election, following a double dissolution. The incumbent Coalition government which had been in power since 1975, led by Malcolm Fraser ( Liberal Party) and Doug Anthony ( National Party), was defeated in a landslide by the opposition Labor Party led by Bob Hawke. This election marked the end of the seven year Liberal-National Coalition Fraser Government and the start of the 13 year Hawke-Keating Labor Government. The Coalition would spend its longest ever period in opposition and the Labor party would spend its longest ever period of government at a federal level. The Coalition would not return to government until the 1996 election. Background and issues At the time of the election, the economy suffered from high inflation and high unemployment, alongside increases in industrial disputation and drought across muc ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
1940 Australian Federal Election
The 1940 Australian federal election was held in Australia on 21 September 1940. All 74 seats in the House of Representatives and 19 of the 36 seats in the Senate were up for election. The incumbent Coalition, consisting of the United Australia Party led by Prime Minister Robert Menzies and the Country Party led by Archie Cameron, defeated the opposition Labor Party under John Curtin despite losing the overall popular vote. The Coalition won 36 seats, two short of a majority, but formed a government on 28 October 1940 with the support of both independent crossbenchers, Alexander Wilson and Arthur Coles. The four MPs elected to Lang Labor's successor, the Australian Labor Party (Non-Communist), officially re-joined the ALP just months after the election in February 1941, bringing the ALP to 36 seats. The UAP–Country minority government lasted only until October 1941, when the two independents crossed the floor and allowed the ALP to form a minority government with Curti ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
1998 Australian Federal Election
The 1998 Australian federal election was held to determine the members of the 39th Parliament of Australia. It was held on 3 October 1998. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76-seat Senate were up for election. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition government led by Prime Minister John Howard of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Tim Fischer of the National Party defeated the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition led by Opposition Leader Kim Beazley, despite losing the nationwide popular and two-party preferred vote. Entering parliament at this election were future Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, future Liberal deputy leader and future Minister of Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop, and future Speaker Anna Burke. Background The election returned the Member of the House of Representatives for its 1998–2001 term and half of Australia's senators, who then served in the 1999–2002 Senate. Despite winn ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
1990 Australian Federal Election
Year 199 ( CXCIX) was a common year starting on Monday (link will display the full calendar) of the Julian calendar. At the time, it was sometimes known as year 952 '' Ab urbe condita''. The denomination 199 for this year has been used since the early medieval period, when the Anno Domini calendar era became the prevalent method in Europe for naming years. Events By place Roman Empire * Mesopotamia is partitioned into two Roman provinces divided by the Euphrates, Mesopotamia and Osroene. * Emperor Septimius Severus lays siege to the city-state Hatra in Central-Mesopotamia, but fails to capture the city despite breaching the walls. * Two new legions, I Parthica and III Parthica, are formed as a permanent garrison. China * Battle of Yijing: Chinese warlord Yuan Shao defeats Gongsun Zan. Korea * Geodeung succeeds Suro of Geumgwan Gaya, as king of the Korean kingdom of Gaya (traditional date). By topic Religion * Pope Zephyrinus succeeds Pope Victor I, as ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
1969 Australian Federal Election
The 1969 Australian federal election was held in Australia on 25 October 1969. The incumbent Liberal–Country coalition government, led by Prime Minister John Gorton, won the election with a severely diminished majority over the opposition Labor Party, led by Gough Whitlam despite losing the two party popular vote. Both major parties had changed their leaders in the run-up to the election, the first time this had occurred since 1946. This was the first and only time that a Federal Government won a ninth consecutive term in office. This election saw the arrival of future Prime Minister of Australia Paul Keating in Parliament, winning the safe Labor division of Blaxland in suburban Sydney - a seat he would represent until his resignation following the Keating Government's electoral defeat in 1996. Issues The 1969 election centred on the two leaders, John Gorton and Gough Whitlam. Both were leading their respective parties in an election for the first time. Gorton had initially ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
1961 Australian Federal Election
The 1961 Australian federal election was held in Australia on 9 December 1961. All 122 seats in the House of Representatives and 31 of the 60 seats in the Senate were up for election. The incumbent Liberal–Country coalition led by Prime Minister Robert Menzies defeated the opposition Labor Party under Arthur Calwell, despite losing the two-party-preferred popular vote. In his first election as Labor leader, Calwell significantly reduced the Coalition's margin, gaining 15 seats to leave the government with only a two-seat majority. This was the first and only time that a Federal Government won a sixth consecutive term in office. Future opposition leader and Governor General Bill Hayden entered parliament at this election. Issues Due to a credit squeeze, the economy had gone into a brief recession in 1961 and unemployment had risen to high levels. This saw an increase in popularity for Labor; Menzies' case was not helped by an approach seen by the press, notably ''The Sydney Mo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
1954 Australian Federal Election
The 1954 Australian federal election were held in Australia on 29 May 1954. All 121 seats in the House of Representatives were up for election, but no Senate election took place. The incumbent Liberal–Country coalition led by Prime Minister Robert Menzies defeated the opposition Labor Party led by H. V. Evatt, despite losing the two-party preferred vote. Although the ALP won the two-party preferred vote, six Coalition seats were uncontested compared to one ALP seat. The Psephos blog makes clear that if all seats had been contested, the Coalition would have recorded a higher primary vote than the ALP and possibly also a higher two-party preferred vote. This was the first federal election that future Prime Minister Gough Whitlam contested as a member of parliament, having entered parliament at the 1952 Werriwa by-election. Though they did not win government, this election was the last time that the Labor party would achieve more than 50% of the primary vote. the only other tim ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
