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Endemic Phase Of COVID-19
COVID-19 was predicted to become an Endemic (epidemiology), endemic disease by many experts. The observed behavior of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, suggests it is unlikely it will die out, and the lack of a COVID-19 vaccine that provides long-lasting immunity against infection means it cannot immediately be Eradication of infectious diseases, eradicated; thus, transition to an endemic phase appears probable. In an endemic phase, people continue to become infected and ill, but in relatively stable numbers. Such a transition may take years or decades. Precisely what would constitute an endemic phase is contested. ''Endemic'' is a frequently misunderstood and misused word outside the realm of epidemiology. ''Endemic'' does not mean ''mild'', or that COVID-19 must become a less hazardous disease. The severity of endemic disease would be dependent on various factors, including the evolution of the virus, population immunity, and vaccine development and rollout. COVID-19 ...
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COVID-19
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a contagious disease caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. In January 2020, the disease spread worldwide, resulting in the COVID-19 pandemic. The symptoms of COVID‑19 can vary but often include fever, fatigue, cough, breathing difficulties, anosmia, loss of smell, and ageusia, loss of taste. Symptoms may begin one to fourteen days incubation period, after exposure to the virus. At least a third of people who are infected asymptomatic, do not develop noticeable symptoms. Of those who develop symptoms noticeable enough to be classified as patients, most (81%) develop mild to moderate symptoms (up to mild pneumonia), while 14% develop severe symptoms (dyspnea, hypoxia (medical), hypoxia, or more than 50% lung involvement on imaging), and 5% develop critical symptoms (respiratory failure, shock (circulatory), shock, or organ dysfunction, multiorgan dysfunction). Older people have a higher risk of developing severe symptoms. Some complicati ...
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Morbidity
A disease is a particular abnormal condition that adversely affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism and is not immediately due to any external injury. Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are associated with specific signs and symptoms. A disease may be caused by external factors such as pathogens or by internal dysfunctions. For example, internal dysfunctions of the immune system can produce a variety of different diseases, including various forms of immunodeficiency, hypersensitivity, allergies, and autoimmune disorders. In humans, ''disease'' is often used more broadly to refer to any condition that causes pain, dysfunction, distress, social problems, or death to the person affected, or similar problems for those in contact with the person. In this broader sense, it sometimes includes injuries, disabilities, disorders, syndromes, infections, isolated symptoms, deviant behaviors, and atypical variations of structure and f ...
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Epidemic
An epidemic (from Greek ἐπί ''epi'' "upon or above" and δῆμος ''demos'' "people") is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of hosts in a given population within a short period of time. For example, in meningococcal infections, an attack rate in excess of 15 cases per 100,000 people for two consecutive weeks is considered an epidemic. Epidemics of infectious disease are generally caused by several factors including a change in the ecology of the host population (e.g., increased stress or increase in the density of a vector species), a genetic change in the pathogen reservoir or the introduction of an emerging pathogen to a host population (by movement of pathogen or host). Generally, an epidemic occurs when host immunity to either an established pathogen or newly emerging novel pathogen is suddenly reduced below that found in the endemic equilibrium and the transmission threshold is exceeded. An epidemic may be restricted to one location; however, if it sp ...
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Pandemic Influenza
An influenza pandemic is an epidemic of an influenza virus that spreads across a large region (either multiple continents or worldwide) and infects a large proportion of the population. There have been five major influenza pandemics in the last 140 years, with the 1918 flu pandemic being the most severe; this is estimated to have been responsible for the deaths of 50–100 million people. The 2009 swine flu pandemic resulted in under 300,000 deaths and is considered relatively mild. These pandemics occur irregularly. Influenza pandemics occur when a new strain of the influenza virus is transmitted to humans from another animal species. Species that are thought to be important in the emergence of new human strains are pigs, chickens and ducks. These novel strains are unaffected by any immunity people may have to older strains of human influenza and can therefore spread extremely rapidly and infect very large numbers of people. Influenza A viruses can occasionally be tra ...
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Endemicity
In epidemiology, an infection is said to be endemic in a specific population or populated place when that infection is constantly present, or maintained at a baseline level, without extra infections being brought into the group as a result of travel or similar means. The term describes the distribution of an infectious disease among a group of people or within a populated area. An endemic disease always has a steady, predictable number of people getting sick, but that number can be high (''hyperendemic'') or low (''hypoendemic''), and the disease can be severe or mild. Also, a disease that is usually endemic can become epidemic. For example, chickenpox is endemic in the United Kingdom, but malaria is not. Every year, there are a few cases of malaria reported in the UK, but these do not lead to sustained transmission in the population due to the lack of a suitable vector (mosquitoes of the genus ''Anopheles''). Consequently, there is no constant baseline level of malaria infection ...
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Pandemic
A pandemic ( ) is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has a sudden increase in cases and spreads across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Widespread endemic (epidemiology), endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide. Throughout human history, there have been a number of pandemics of diseases such as smallpox. The Black Death, caused by the Plague (disease), Plague, caused the deaths of up to half of the population of Europe in the 14th century. The term ''pandemic'' had not been used then, but was used for later epidemics, including the 1918 Influenza A virus subtype H1N1, H1N1 influenza A pandemic—more commonly known as the Spanish flu—which is the Deadliest pandemics in history, deadliest pandemic in history. The mos ...
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Non-pharmaceutical Intervention (epidemiology)
In epidemiology, a non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) is any method used to reduce the spread of an epidemic disease without requiring Medication, pharmaceutical drug treatments. Examples of non-pharmaceutical interventions that reduce the spread of infectious diseases include Face masks during the COVID-19 pandemic, wearing a face mask and Quarantine, staying away from sick people. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) points to personal, community, and environmental interventions. NPIs have been recommended for pandemic influenza at both local and global levels and studied at large scale during the 2009 swine flu pandemic and the COVID-19 pandemic. NPIs are typically used in the period between the emergence of an epidemic disease and the deployment of an effective vaccine. Types Choosing to stay home to prevent the spread of symptoms of a potential sickness, covering coughs and sneezes, and washing one's hands regularly, are all examples of non-pharmaceut ...
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Epidemic
An epidemic (from Greek ἐπί ''epi'' "upon or above" and δῆμος ''demos'' "people") is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of hosts in a given population within a short period of time. For example, in meningococcal infections, an attack rate in excess of 15 cases per 100,000 people for two consecutive weeks is considered an epidemic. Epidemics of infectious disease are generally caused by several factors including a change in the ecology of the host population (e.g., increased stress or increase in the density of a vector species), a genetic change in the pathogen reservoir or the introduction of an emerging pathogen to a host population (by movement of pathogen or host). Generally, an epidemic occurs when host immunity to either an established pathogen or newly emerging novel pathogen is suddenly reduced below that found in the endemic equilibrium and the transmission threshold is exceeded. An epidemic may be restricted to one location; however, if it sp ...
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Transmissibility (epidemiology)
In medicine, public health, and biology, transmission is the passing of a pathogen causing communicable disease from an infected host individual or group to a particular individual or group, regardless of whether the other individual was previously infected. The term strictly refers to the transmission of microorganisms directly from one individual to another by one or more of the following means: * airborne transmission – very small dry and wet particles that stay in the air for long periods of time allowing airborne contamination even after the departure of the host. Particle size 5 μm. * direct physical contact – touching an infected individual, including sexual contact * indirect physical contact – usually by touching a contaminated surface, including soil (fomite) * fecal–oral transmission – usually from unwashed hands, contaminated food or water sources due to lack of sanitation and hygiene, an important transmission route in pediatrics, veterinary medicine and ...
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Sporadic Disease
In infectious disease epidemiology, a sporadic disease is an infectious disease which occurs only infrequently, haphazardly, irregularly, or occasionally, from time to time in a few isolated places, with no discernible temporal or spatial pattern, as opposed to a recognizable epidemic outbreak or endemic pattern. The cases are so few (single or in a cluster) and separated so widely in time and place that there exists little or no discernable connection within them. They also do not show a recognizable common source of infection.According to : "...sporadic cases do not necessarily share a single specific common contaminated source..." In the discussion of non-infectious diseases, a sporadic disease is a non-communicable disease (such as cancer) which occurs in people without any family history of that disease or without any inherited genetic predisposition for the disease (change in DNA which increases the risk of having that disease). Sporadic non-infectious diseases arise not due ...
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Emerging Infectious Disease
An emerging infectious disease (EID) refer to infectious diseases that have either newly appeared in a population or have existed but are rapidly increasing in incidence, geographic range, or severity due to factors such as environmental changes, antimicrobial resistance, and human-animal interactions. The minority that are capable of developing Virulence, efficient transmission between humans can become major Public health, public and Global health, global concerns as potential causes of epidemics or pandemics. Their many impacts can be economic and societal, as well as clinical. EIDs have been increasing steadily since at least 1940. For every decade since 1940, there has been a consistent increase in the number of EID events from wildlife-related zoonosis. Human activity is the primary driver of this increase, with loss of biodiversity a leading mechanism. Emerging infections account for at least 12% of all human pathogens. EIDs can be caused by newly identified microbes, i ...
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Virulence
Virulence is a pathogen's or microorganism's ability to cause damage to a host. In most cases, especially in animal systems, virulence refers to the degree of damage caused by a microbe to its host. The pathogenicity of an organism—its ability to cause disease—is determined by its virulence factors. In the specific context of gene for gene systems, often in plants, virulence refers to a pathogen's ability to infect a resistant host. Virulence can also be transferred using a plasmid. The noun ''virulence'' (Latin noun ) derives from the adjective ''virulent'', meaning disease severity. The word ''virulent'' derives from the Latin word ''virulentus'', meaning "a poisoned wound" or "full of poison". The term ''virulence'' does not only apply to viruses. From an ecological standpoint, virulence is the loss of fitness induced by a parasite upon its host. Virulence can be understood in terms of proximate causes—those specific traits of the pathogen that help make the host ...
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