Statistical Models
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Statistical Models
A statistical model is a mathematical model that embodies a set of statistical assumptions concerning the generation of sample data (and similar data from a larger population). A statistical model represents, often in considerably idealized form, the data-generating process. When referring specifically to probabilities, the corresponding term is probabilistic model. All statistical hypothesis tests and all statistical estimators are derived via statistical models. More generally, statistical models are part of the foundation of statistical inference. A statistical model is usually specified as a mathematical relationship between one or more random variables and other non-random variables. As such, a statistical model is "a formal representation of a theory" ( Herman Adèr quoting Kenneth Bollen). Introduction Informally, a statistical model can be thought of as a statistical assumption (or set of statistical assumptions) with a certain property: that the assumption allows us ...
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Mathematical Model
A mathematical model is an abstract and concrete, abstract description of a concrete system using mathematics, mathematical concepts and language of mathematics, language. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed ''mathematical modeling''. Mathematical models are used in applied mathematics and in the natural sciences (such as physics, biology, earth science, chemistry) and engineering disciplines (such as computer science, electrical engineering), as well as in non-physical systems such as the social sciences (such as economics, psychology, sociology, political science). It can also be taught as a subject in its own right. The use of mathematical models to solve problems in business or military operations is a large part of the field of operations research. Mathematical models are also used in music, linguistics, and philosophy (for example, intensively in analytic philosophy). A model may help to explain a system and to study the effects of different components, ...
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Probability Distributions
In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution is a function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of possible events for an experiment. It is a mathematical description of a random phenomenon in terms of its sample space and the probabilities of events (subsets of the sample space). For instance, if is used to denote the outcome of a coin toss ("the experiment"), then the probability distribution of would take the value 0.5 (1 in 2 or 1/2) for , and 0.5 for (assuming that the coin is fair). More commonly, probability distributions are used to compare the relative occurrence of many different random values. Probability distributions can be defined in different ways and for discrete or for continuous variables. Distributions with special properties or for especially important applications are given specific names. Introduction A probability distribution is a mathematical description of the probabilities of events, subsets of the sample space. The sa ...
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David Cox (statistician)
Sir David Roxbee Cox (15 July 1924 – 18 January 2022) was a British statistician and educator. His wide-ranging contributions to the field of statistics included introducing logistic regression, the proportional hazards model and the Cox process, a point process named after him. He was a professor of statistics at Birkbeck, University of London, Birkbeck College, London, Imperial College London and the University of Oxford, and served as Warden (college), Warden of Nuffield College, Oxford. The first recipient of the International Prize in Statistics, he also received the Guy Medal, Guy, George Box Medal, George Box and Copley Medal, Copley medals, as well as a Knight bachelor, knighthood. Early life Cox was born in Birmingham on 15 July 1924. His father was a die (manufacturing), die sinker and part-owner of a jewellery shop, and they lived near the Jewellery Quarter. The aeronautical engineer Harold Roxbee Cox was a distant cousin. He attended Handsworth Grammar School, B ...
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Bernoulli Process
In probability and statistics, a Bernoulli process (named after Jacob Bernoulli) is a finite or infinite sequence of binary random variables, so it is a discrete-time stochastic process that takes only two values, canonically 0 and 1. The component Bernoulli variables ''X''''i'' are identically distributed and independent. Prosaically, a Bernoulli process is a repeated coin flipping, possibly with an unfair coin (but with consistent unfairness). Every variable ''X''''i'' in the sequence is associated with a Bernoulli trial or experiment. They all have the same Bernoulli distribution. Much of what can be said about the Bernoulli process can also be generalized to more than two outcomes (such as the process for a six-sided die); this generalization is known as the Bernoulli scheme. The problem of determining the process, given only a limited sample of Bernoulli trials, may be called the problem of checking whether a coin is fair. Definition A ''Bernoulli process'' is ...
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Coin Tossing
Coin flipping, coin tossing, or heads or tails is using the thumb to make a coin go up while spinning in the air and checking obverse and reverse, which side is showing when it is down onto a surface, in order to randomly choose between two alternatives. It is a form of sortition which inherently has two possible outcomes. History Coin flipping was known to the Romans as ''navia aut caput'' ("ship or head"), as some coins had a ship on one side and the head of the Roman Emperor, emperor on the other. In England, this was referred to as ''cross and pile''. Process During a coin toss, the coin is thrown into the air such that it rotates edge-over-edge an unpredictable number of times. Either beforehand or when the coin is in the air, an interested party declares "heads" or "tails", indicating which side of the coin that party is choosing. The other party is assigned the opposite side. Depending on custom, the coin may be caught; caught and inverted; or allowed to land on the g ...
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Random Variable
A random variable (also called random quantity, aleatory variable, or stochastic variable) is a Mathematics, mathematical formalization of a quantity or object which depends on randomness, random events. The term 'random variable' in its mathematical definition refers to neither randomness nor variability but instead is a mathematical function (mathematics), function in which * the Domain of a function, domain is the set of possible Outcome (probability), outcomes in a sample space (e.g. the set \ which are the possible upper sides of a flipped coin heads H or tails T as the result from tossing a coin); and * the Range of a function, range is a measurable space (e.g. corresponding to the domain above, the range might be the set \ if say heads H mapped to -1 and T mapped to 1). Typically, the range of a random variable is a subset of the Real number, real numbers. Informally, randomness typically represents some fundamental element of chance, such as in the roll of a dice, d ...
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Deterministic System
In mathematics, computer science and physics, a deterministic system is a system in which no randomness is involved in the development of future states of the system. A deterministic model will thus always produce the same output from a given starting condition or initial state. In physics Physical laws that are described by differential equations represent deterministic systems, even though the state of the system at a given point in time may be difficult to describe explicitly. In quantum mechanics, the Schrödinger equation, which describes the continuous time evolution of a system's wave function, is deterministic. However, the relationship between a system's wave function and the observable properties of the system appears to be non-deterministic. In mathematics The systems studied in chaos theory are deterministic. If the initial state were known exactly, then the future state of such a system could theoretically be predicted. However, in practice, knowledge about the ...
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Linear Regression
In statistics, linear regression is a statistical model, model that estimates the relationship between a Scalar (mathematics), scalar response (dependent variable) and one or more explanatory variables (regressor or independent variable). A model with exactly one explanatory variable is a ''simple linear regression''; a model with two or more explanatory variables is a multiple linear regression. This term is distinct from multivariate linear regression, which predicts multiple correlated dependent variables rather than a single dependent variable. In linear regression, the relationships are modeled using linear predictor functions whose unknown model parameters are estimation theory, estimated from the data. Most commonly, the conditional mean of the response given the values of the explanatory variables (or predictors) is assumed to be an affine function of those values; less commonly, the conditional median or some other quantile is used. Like all forms of regression analysis, ...
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Stochastic
Stochastic (; ) is the property of being well-described by a random probability distribution. ''Stochasticity'' and ''randomness'' are technically distinct concepts: the former refers to a modeling approach, while the latter describes phenomena; in everyday conversation, however, these terms are often used interchangeably. In probability theory, the formal concept of a '' stochastic process'' is also referred to as a ''random process''. Stochasticity is used in many different fields, including image processing, signal processing, computer science, information theory, telecommunications, chemistry, ecology, neuroscience, physics, and cryptography. It is also used in finance (e.g., stochastic oscillator), due to seemingly random changes in the different markets within the financial sector and in medicine, linguistics, music, media, colour theory, botany, manufacturing and geomorphology. Etymology The word ''stochastic'' in English was originally used as an adjective with the ...
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Discrete Uniform Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the discrete uniform distribution is a symmetric probability distribution wherein each of some finite whole number ''n'' of outcome values are equally likely to be observed. Thus every one of the ''n'' outcome values has equal probability 1/''n''. Intuitively, a discrete uniform distribution is "a known, finite number of outcomes all equally likely to happen." A simple example of the discrete uniform distribution comes from throwing a fair six-sided die. The possible values are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and each time the die is thrown the probability of each given value is 1/6. If two dice were thrown and their values added, the possible sums would not have equal probability and so the distribution of sums of two dice rolls is not uniform. Although it is common to consider discrete uniform distributions over a contiguous range of integers, such as in this six-sided die example, one can define discrete uniform distributions over any finite set. Fo ...
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Robust Statistics
Robust statistics are statistics that maintain their properties even if the underlying distributional assumptions are incorrect. Robust Statistics, statistical methods have been developed for many common problems, such as estimating location parameter, location, scale parameter, scale, and regression coefficient, regression parameters. One motivation is to produce statistical methods that are not unduly affected by outliers. Another motivation is to provide methods with good performance when there are small departures from a Parametric statistics, parametric distribution. For example, robust methods work well for mixtures of two normal distributions with different standard deviations; under this model, non-robust methods like a t-test work poorly. Introduction Robust statistics seek to provide methods that emulate popular statistical methods, but are not unduly affected by outliers or other small departures from Statistical assumption, model assumptions. In statistics, classical e ...
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Bayesian Statistics
Bayesian statistics ( or ) is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability, where probability expresses a ''degree of belief'' in an event. The degree of belief may be based on prior knowledge about the event, such as the results of previous experiments, or on personal beliefs about the event. This differs from a number of other interpretations of probability, such as the frequentist interpretation, which views probability as the limit of the relative frequency of an event after many trials. More concretely, analysis in Bayesian methods codifies prior knowledge in the form of a prior distribution. Bayesian statistical methods use Bayes' theorem to compute and update probabilities after obtaining new data. Bayes' theorem describes the conditional probability of an event based on data as well as prior information or beliefs about the event or conditions related to the event. For example, in Bayesian inference, Bayes' theorem can ...
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